DISCLAIMER

This research report is prepared by PT MINNA PADI INVESTAMA Tbk for information purposes only and are not to be used or considered as an offer or the solicitation of an offer to sell or to buy or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. The report has been prepared without regard to individual financial circumstance, need or objective of person to receive it. The securities discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors. The appropriateness of any particular investment or strategy whether opined on or referred to in this report or otherwise will depend on an investor’s individual circumstance and objective and should be independently evaluated and confirmed by such investor, and, if appropriate, with his professional advisers independently before adoption or implementation (either as is or varied).

Selasa, 24 Desember 2013

Morning Dew - 27 December 2013

No Santa Rally, Sorry.

Santa did not come for Christmas this year as JCI stays stuck in a rut between 4,100 and 4,300.

While we still have a few more days this 2013, it is likely that we will witness no sharp movements during the remaining sessions.

In the US, the Dow index stays high as rosy data keep pouring down the market. Still, the responses so far have been limited as well.

The next update will be at the start of January. 

Durable Goods, Housing Data

US durable goods orders were up 3.5% in November, reversing October dip of 0.7%. The reading was better than the consensus rise of 2%. Excluding transportation items, orders were up 1.2%, beating consensus gains of 0.7%.
Elsewhere, new home sales dipped 2.1% from October after a strong jump in October (+17.6%). The fall was worse than consensus dip of 0.9%, however.

Technically Speaking...

JCI continues to gyrate between 4,109-4,282 as we past Christmas. Lack of fresh fundamental catalysts may continue until the year closes. 

The nearest resistance is spotted at 4,282, followed by 4,331. On the flip side, the support is seen at 4,109 with subsequent support at 4,012.

MACD is struggling to defend its footing above the zero line, while the RSI has been fluctuating around the neutral zone. So far, the bullish divergence structure remains intact but the index needs a jump to confirm the pattern.

Recent pick-up in volume has unfortunately, faded away. Overall, the bullish potential has slowly losing form and unless the bulls strike, the bears will roar through the year end. For now however, the bulls and the bears seem to have bumped into a stalemate.

Day Ahead

As we approach the end of the year, the market is expected to be losing energy. Lack of new catalysts from domestic and overseas fronts will render trading activities pretty much subdued. It is expected to be picking up steam again at the start of January. JCI is seen ranging between 4,100-4,300 until year-end.

Senin, 23 Desember 2013

Morning Dew - 24 December 2013

Awaiting Santa

IMF has been encouraged by recent budget deal and the start of Fed tapering program as both had sent removed some elements of uncertainties surrounding the market. IMF boss Christine Lagarde said that it is raising US economic outlook given recent developments. Nevertheless, no new projections were mentioned by Lagarde, but IMF’s last projection on US economy was a 2.6% growth next year in October.

Domestically, volume seems to be on the decline as we’re approaching the Christmas holiday. JCI will have a shortened week this week and next week as well. Unless Santa is coming to pay a visit, we’re bound to end stuck around the current level around 4,200.

Rosy Data

US household spending gained 0.5% in November, accelerated from 0.4% gains in October, in line with the consensus. On the other hand, household income gained 0.2% in November after a 0.1 drop in October. Still it was below the consensus gains of 0.5%.

University of Michigan index of consumer sentiment also up from 75.1 to 82.5, although less than expected reading of 83.

Technically Speaking...

JCI continues to gyrate between 4,109-4,282 as we approach the Christmas holiday. Lack of fresh fundamental catalysts may continue until the year closes. 
The nearest resistance is spotted at 4,282, followed by 4,331. On the flip side, the support is seen at 4,109 with subsequent support at 4,012.

MACD is struggling to defend its footing above the zero line, while the RSI has been fluctuating around the neutral zone. So far, the bullish divergence structure remains intact but the index needs a jump to confirm the pattern.

Recent pick-up in volume has unfortunately, faded away. Overall, the bullish potential has slowly losing form and unless the bulls strike, the bears will roar through the year end.

Day Ahead

Despite positive assessment by the IMF on the US economy, the direct impact on the JCI should be limited. Reiterating the view over two central banks, the Federal Reserve and Bank Indonesia seem to be walking on different policy paths. Nonetheless, gains in Dow could still boost sentiment on JCI.

Kamis, 19 Desember 2013

Morning Dew - 20 December 2013

Beyond Tapering

Market participants cheered the Fed’s decision as the JCI jumped on Thursday after the Fed decided to start the tapering cruising on the slow lane.

Small reduction of stimulus means the Fed has given some time to the economy to recover, especially from the job market side. Given the Fed’s emphasis on this side of the economy, the job data will gain prominence in the coming months.

Thursday saw the jobless claims spiked to 379k last week, way above the consensus drop to 336k. As the tapering has started, poor job data is likely to receive poor reaction as the market may be having second thoughts on whether the US economy can withstand the tapering process, especially its job market. 

Mitra Insurance Set for IPO

PT Asuransi Mitra Maparya Tbk. set its price offering at IDR240-280 on Thursday. The offering will also include warrant as sweetener. Book building will commence between 19-27 December 2013 with expected effective date on 31 December 2013 and listing date on January 16th 2014.

Technically Speaking...

Market cheered the Fed’s decision as JCI jumped to as high as 4,257, just shy off its nearest resistance at 4,282. The index settled at 4,231 however, but there is still ample room for the upside until the end of the year.

The nearest resistance is spotted at 4,282, followed by 4,331. On the flip side, the support is seen at 4,109 with interim support at 4,172.

MACD is struggling to regain footing above the zero line, while the RSI is also heading towards the neutral zone. So far, the bullish divergence structure remains intact and this is in line with the fundamental outlook.

Moreover, despite the tiny progress since the low at 4,109 was established, the volume has picked up nicely, supporting the near-term bullish outlook.

Day Ahead

As the jobless claims put a hold on the Dow’s gains on Thursday, JCI is also seen on a pause or even seeing some profit taking on Friday. The only hurdle will come from the domestic side as BI’s policy is considered as the sole threat for now. Still, as long as the economic indicators look timid, there should be hardly any risk of another rate hike on the domestic front.

Rabu, 18 Desember 2013

Morning Dew - 19 December 2013

And the Tapering Starts...

US Federal Reserve has officially started its tapering campaign. From the FOMC meeting it has been decided that the bond purchases would be reduced by $10 billion, from $85bn to $75bn.
The amount is considered small and somehow satisfies the market.

Upbeat view from the Fed on the job market has also set off positive mood.

In addition, budget proposal approved by the US Senate and sent to President Obama is potentially reducing the US deficit for the next 10 years through $63bn of automatic spending cuts.

SIDO Debuted

SIDO debuted on Wednesday, off on a fine start. The stock gained 20.69% on the first day, and settled at 700 per share.

Elsewhere, PT Capitol Nusantara Indonesia (CANI) set out its IPO price range at 190-230 as it seeks to finance a purchase of an AHTS fleet to support the company’s operations.

Technically Speaking...

JCI is expected to rebound on Thursday as positive mood sets in.

The nearest resistance is spotted at 4,282, followed by 4,331. On the flip side, the support is seen at 4,109 with interim support at 4,172.

MACD is struggling to regain footing above the zero line, while the RSI is also heading towards the neutral zone. So far, the bullish divergence structure remains intact and this is in line with the fundamental outlook.

Moreover, despite the tiny progress since the low at 4,109 was established, the volume has picked up nicely, supporting the near-term bullish outlook.
PTPP has been added to the reco list, replacing ALTO which got stopped out earlier.

Day Ahead

Strong finish on Fed decision is expected to set off a positive mood in Indonesian stocks as well. We expect a rebound, but we should keep in mind that JCI is increasingly dependent on the BI’s policy rather than the Fed. BI itself has set its own policy path which may or may not in convergence with the Fed’s.

Senin, 16 Desember 2013

Morning Dew - 17 December 2013

Closing In

As we move closer to the Fed’s meeting date, the JCI fell further as jitters persisted. Regionals key indexes such as Nikkei and Hang Seng were also down as investors opted to take away some bets off the table.

Reiterating my view, while December move is possible, large scale-back is not expected. It is likely that the Fed will start with a small cut, probably just to show the central bank’s commitment to taper off the monetary stimulus.

No action is also on the table. The Fed may want to wait until more data coming in just to make sure that the tapering won’t be premature. Even if this happens, the market seems to be prepared with such decision.

PMI Ticked Up

US PMI for December showed a minor uptick from 54.3 to 54.4, less than what the market had expected. China’s PMI on the other hand, slowed to 50.5 from 50.8, also less than what had been expected. No major impact from both data however, as the market’s attention seemed to be fixed straight at the FOMC meeting.

US CPI is due on Tuesday, with the core YoY CPI seen steady at 1.7% while the headline inflation is seen accelerating 1.3%. MoM core is seen at 0.1% while headline MoM CPI is seen up 0.1% in Nov.

Technically Speaking...

JCI continued to crash, tripping the key support at 4,161. This does not look good for the index as the next line of defense will be the 2013 low at 3,837.

Prior support at 4,161 has now turned to resistance, followed by 4,200.

MACD has now curled back to the negative zone and descending deeper. The RSI however, has not made any new lows, so this could be a setup of a bullish divergence pattern which could spell rebound for the index. The problem is, we could as well revisiting the 2013 low first before we see the rebound.

Two new entries were filled: SAME and ALTO.

Day Ahead

Rebound coming out of the US stock market could mean a breathing room for JCI. Tuesday is seen positive, but whether it will be a dead cat bounce or not is remain to be seen. Uncertainties surrounding the Fed decision on 18th will remain the key theme at the moment.

Minggu, 15 Desember 2013

Morning Dew - 16 December 2013

Waiting for the Fed

JCI ended the week on a weaker footing as Fed jitters continued. Lack of new information set off more profit-taking as the market ponders what the FOMC decision will be.

Reiterating my view, while December move is possible, large scale-back is not expected. It is likely that the Fed will start with a small cut, probably just to show the central bank’s commitment to taper off the monetary stimulus.

No action is also on the table. The Fed may want to wait until more data coming in just to make sure that the tapering won’t be premature. Even if this happens, the market seems to be prepared with such decision.

Timid Inflation

US inflation numbers were timid at the production stage. The core Producer Price Index (PPI) was up 0.1% in November, slower than the prior month. Compared to the same period last year, the core PPI also slowed to 1.3% from 1.4%.

The headline PPI on the other hand, showed acceleration, albeit less than what the market consensus. Month-on-month, PPI was down 0.1% against 0.2% decline in prior month. Year-on-year, PPI jumped 0.7% against 0.3% seen in prior period.

Technically Speaking...

JCI crashed below the support at 4,200 and went straight to test the key support at 4,161 while barely made any efforts to claw its way up.

Prior support at 4,200 has now turned to resistance while the next key support will be the prior low at 4,161. If this support fails to hold next week, the index may falter even deeper to test the 2013 low at 3,837.

Friday’s dip has pulled the MACD back underwater and this does not bode well for the coming week. RSI and stochastics however, are still above their respective lows, meaning a potential divergence structure remains intact.

Week Ahead

JCI ended the week on a weaker footing as the index now stands at the edge of key support. No domestic data are expected to power up the JCI while from the global side, the market is getting ready to faceoff with the FOMC’s decision on December 18th. The coming week will put the market somewhat listless as the Fed’s meeting approaches. Losing the key support at 4,161 will risk a revisit of 3,837, the 2013 low.

Kamis, 12 Desember 2013

Morning Dew - 13 December 2013

Start Small

Bears gaining strength ahead of the end of the week, triggered by jitters over the next Fed meeting on 17th and 18th. Improving retail data showed that consumption has improved a bit, while the report on jobless claims put a reminder that the labor market remains fragile.

With more expecting December tapering, it has to be kept in mind that tapering is not the same as interest rate hake; even if there’s any tapering this month, the Fed may start small instead of big. Budget deal helps improved the odds of tapering, however, but starting it with big cut will also be a risky bet for the Fed.

Mixed Data

US retail sales advanced 0.7% in November, faster than the 0.6% expected and 0.6% gains in prior month. Excluding automotive, sales  slowed to 0.4% from 0.5% seen in October, but the reading also beat the consensus of 0.2% gains. Excluding autos and gas, sales maintained pace at 0.6%, twice faster than the consensus gains of 0.3%.

US Jobless claims rose to 368k, worse than 300k seen prior week as well as bigger than the consensus number of 320k.

Technically Speaking...

While the JCI maintained its range between 4,200-4,300, the poor showings from abroad threatens the index to take another go downhill this Friday.

Next resistance zone around 4,300-4,330 is likely to cap near-term advances while support now holds around 4,200, followed by the recent low at 4,161.

RSI and MACD bullish supports have been diminishing recently for the index, but should Friday see a surprise rally, these two may set up an improved outlook for the coming week.

RALS tripped its stop at 1,020, out for 7.27% losses. No new additions for now.

Day Ahead

The market is expected to be in jittery mode ahead of the Fed FOMC meeting in mid-month. Mixed data seen on Thursday as well as poor performances of global indices may further pressure the JCI this Friday. The week may end on a weaker footing, however. JCI is seen fluctuating between its familiar range of 4,200-4,300 with outer band of 4,161-4,330.

Selasa, 10 Desember 2013

Morning Dew - 11 December 2013

Eyes on the Fed and Budget

JCI rallied, tracking gains of global indices as the market gazes at the possibility of the start of Fed’s tapering this month. Solid readings of nonfarm payrolls data as well as China’s trade data helped to brighten the mood. Also, a prospect of reaching a budget deal at the Capitol Hill is another positive for investors.

Based on Bloomberg survey recently, the Fed is expected to start its tapering (12 out of 35) this month (Dec 17-18), while nine of 35 expect the tapering to start in January and another 14 believe that the tapering will start in March.

At the Capitol Hill, the negotiators were said to be ‘getting close’ to reach a budget deal. If so, it will remove one hurdle for the Fed to start the tapering as well.

China’s Data

China’s retail sales were up 13.0% (YoY) in November, slightly below the consensus gains of 13.2% and slower than in October (+13.3%).

Industrial production also slowed to 10% from 10.3% in prior month. The market had expected production to have gained 10.1% in November.

While both data were below consensus, both remained strong and should not dent the prospect of recovery in China.

Technically Speaking...

JCI continued to move higher on Tuesday as it approaches the next resistance zone around 4,300-4,330. 

Support now holds around 4,200, followed by the recent low at 4,161.

RSI and MACD remain supportive for the index, but Wednesday is likely to see a bit of a breather for the index as the index is prone to short-term dips.

No changes in the reco pool so far.

Day Ahead

Positive set of data and the prospect of a budget deal to be reached have set a stage for the market to end the year on firm footings. Still, domestic data will constrain the JCI’s advance as BI has its own policy path. Next big thing remains the FOMC meeting on Dec 17-18.

Senin, 09 Desember 2013

Morning Dew - 10 December 2013

Back on the Table

Strong nonfarm payrolls data on Friday suggests that the Fed may taper its stimulus sooner rather than later.

James Bullard, the governor of St. Louis Fed stated on Monday that as labor market conditions improve, the tapering odds have risen as well, making a move in December  back on the table.

The FOMC is scheduled to meet on 17-18 December and it risks of tapering after the release of the US payrolls last Friday which saw a strong result. According to Bloomberg, about 34% of the economists see a tapering in December, up from 17% in prior sessions.

China’s Data

China’s retail sales data is set for release on Monday along with the release of industrial production data.

Retail sales is seen up 13.1% YTD while compared to the same period last year, sales is seen up 13.2%.

Industrial production is expected to stay robust, growing by 9.7% YTD and 10.1% YOY.

Technically Speaking...

JCI posted strong gains on Monday as it tracks the global mood. The index finished back above 4,200, but it still has a lot to prove for now.

Nearest resistance comes at 4,300-4,330 while the support remains at the recent low at 4,161.

MACD has ticked up but still below the zero line. RSI too, is going curling up, but still inconclusive of any bullish divergence pattern at the moment. Downside risk will diminish if a strong rally can push MACD back above the zero line while pulling up the RSI to form a bullish divergence.

No changes in the reco pool so far.

Day Ahead

As the FOMC meeting approaching fast, the market has now think that tapering is okay because the economy is on the right track to recovery, as witnessed by the solid payrolls data in November. China’s data could also steal the show.

Minggu, 08 Desember 2013

Morning Dew - 9 December 2013

FX Reserves Steady

Indonesia’s foreign exchange reserves were steady at US$97.0 billion at the end of November 2013.

The amount was unchanged compared to prior month and according to Bank Indonesia the current level is enough to support the external sector sustainability while holding above the international standards of adequacy.

The fx reserves position peaked during 2012 when it reached US$112.8 billion. 

Since then, the amount has been going downhill and approaching the 2010’s level of US$96.2 billion.

Getting Upbeat

U.S. payrolls grew strong in November, adding 203k jobs, following up a strong October reading of 200k. The reading beat the consensus of 185k. Unemployment rate was also upbeat as it fell sharply from 7.3% to 7.0%, also exceeded what the market had expected (7.2%).

A sigh of relief as the market responded positively towards the strong data. Strong payrolls were translated into better position for the economy to withstand the possible Fed’s stimulus tapering sometime in the future (possibly late 1Q14).

In China, trade surplus was reportedly grew to $33.8 billion in November, the biggest since January 2009.

Technically Speaking...

A poor finish last week had brought down several layers of supports and putting the next ones at 4,060 and 3,837.  Strong performances from the US and Europe on Friday signaled a potential rebound on Monday.

Prior support at 4,202 has now turned to resistance, followed by the next strong one at 4,331.

MACD has turned south instead of going higher above zero line. RSI too, is going lower again. Downside risk will diminish if a strong rally on Monday can push MACD back to the upside while pulling up the RSI to form a bullish divergence.

No changes in the reco pool so far.

Week Ahead

After a hard week, JCI is poised to start the week with a strong footing, thanks to data coming out of U.S. and China. U.S. payrolls were up strongly in November, accompanied by sharp drop in unemployment rate. The November trade data coming out of China was also strong, building up confidence that China’s on the right track to restore its economic glory.

Kamis, 05 Desember 2013

Morning Dew - 6 December 2013

Stability Over Growth

The BI mantra – “Stability over growth” – along with the anticipation of Federal Reserve stimulus tapering have sent bulls on the run worldwide.

BI’s number 2, Mirza Adityaswara reiterated BI’s target to curb current-account deficit even at the expense of economic growth (GDP). The argument is that capital inflows will return once CAD has been dealt with and when that happens, BI can ease its current tightening bias.

The objective is to hit below 3% of GDP on CAD next year whereas at the moment deficit was at 3.8% in 3Q13.

Rupiah has continued its slide so far, despite BI’s aggressive stance. Rallies had met with demand, sending rupiah lower against the greenback.

Eyes on Payrolls

Payrolls are expected to see a dip in November from 204k to 185k. Unemployment rate however, is expected to tick down to 7.2% from 7.3%.

Note that a strong payrolls data may backfire as the data will raise the odds that the tapering is happening soon.

Personal income is seen to have slowed to 0.3% from 0.5% in prior month, while October’s personal spending is expected to stay growing by 0.2%.

Jobless claims for the week ended Nov 29th were down to 298k, from 321k a week earlier and better than what the market had expected (320k). Elsewhere, factory orders fell 0.9% after a 1.8% increase in September.

Technically Speaking...

Despite a good start this week, JCI is still not out of the woods. The index is still way below the EMA band (4,400-4,490). 

Resistance is seen at 4,400 first, followed by 4,490, while on the downside the recent low at 4,202 will provide cushion for the index. JCI has toyed with the lower end of the consolidation band and the outlook is not getting better so far. Instead…
MACD has turned south instead of going higher above zero line. RSI too, is going lower again.

Should 4,202 falls, JCI is at risk of falling towards the next support at 4k. Near-term, 4,331 is expected to cap the index.

Day Ahead

Being hit on two front: domestic and abroad, JCI is expected to remain vulnerable this Friday. As the index is at risk of falling out of its consolidation range between 4,200-4,400, we can expect a shift down the line to 4,000-4,200 at the moment. It is clear that JCI is becoming more BI-sensitive rather than Fed-sensitive. 

Rabu, 04 Desember 2013

Morning Dew - 5 December 2013

Budget & Taper Talks

Stocks tumbled across the board as most Asia, Europe and U.S. were all ended the day down. Concern over the timing of the tapering that could be sooner rather than later as well as the ongoing budget talk in Washington were the main catalysts.

Rupiah weakened against the USD, inching closer towards 12k, after the recent rally seemed to attract demand, especially after Monday’s US ISM data showed solid reading, bolstering the case for tapering sooner rather than later. Bank Indonesia stated that the CB will be ready to intervene to stabilize the volatility of the rupiah. Still, any intervention will not aim to bring rupiah to a certain level, rather it will be conducted to bring down volatility.

ISM Service and Housing Data

Despite strong manufacturing sector, the non-manufacturing index of ISM showed deceleration of pace in November. The index stood at 53.9 against 55.0 expected and lower than October’s 55.4.

New home sales however, soared 25.4% month-on-month in October, reversing September’s decline of 6.6%. September’s decline was worse than August’s uptick of 1.6%.

ADP reported an addition of 215k jobs in the private sector. ADP’s figure is considered as a gauge for the upcoming nonfarm payrolls data set for release next Friday.

Technically Speaking...

Despite a good start this week, JCI is still not out of the woods. The index is still way below the EMA band (4,400-4,490). 

Resistance is seen at 4,400 first, followed by 4,490, while on the downside the recent low at 4,202 will provide cushion for the index. 

Bullish divergence structure has not been followed through by meaningful rally so far. This is not a good sign as JCI is approaching its crucial support level at 4,202. Once broken, this could set up another decline towards 4,000, en route to 3,837.

META is in the active mode now as it has been filled at 270. Target is set at 330, with stop set below 240.

Day Ahead

Forces collide as the market continues to speculate that tapering is going to be sooner rather than later against the Bank Indonesia (BI) policy which is expected take a breather after a surprise rate hike as trade balance improved and inflation looks timid. It is likely that the JCI will continue to consolidate between 4,200-4,400 for now.

Senin, 02 Desember 2013

Morning Dew - 3 December 2013

Early Present

Better-than-expected trade balance for October and marginally higher inflation in November have managed to boost JCI at the start of the week.

BI’s hawkish stance on rates, weakening rupiah, fragile current account position, damages from the most recent fuel hike as well as higher minimum wages and poor debt sales result  have been the negative factors dragging the JCI down recently. Continual improvements of these factors will surely put the index back on track towards 5k mark. 

Rupiah which managed to fall to as low as 12k earlier, bounced back to 11,770. Earlier, BI deputy governor had pointed out that rupiah has fallen below 11,500 per USD. IDR is seen ‘appropriate’ between 11k to 11.5k, according to the deputy governor Mirza Adityaswara.

Inflation and Trade

Annual inflation increased to 8.37% in November, from 8.32% in October. Month-on-month, CPI went up 0.12%, faster than 0.09% a month earlier. Core inflation however,  rose from 4.73% in October to 4.8%.
Indonesia trade balance showed a surplus of $50 million in October, as exports rose 6.87% (month-on-month) and imports rose 1.06%. Against the same period last year, exports were up 2.59%, imports fell 8.9%. Market had initially expected a deficit of $650 million.

Technically Speaking...

Despite a good start this week, JCI is still not out of the woods. The index is still way below the EMA band (4,400-4,490). It could be heading towards the exit, though, as we could see some light up ahead.

Resistance is seen at 4,400 first, followed by 4,490, while on the downside the recent low at 4,202 will provide cushion for the index. 

Indicators have started to form a bullish divergent pattern. MACD is getting closer to cross the zero line at the moment while the RSI has formed a bullish failure swing, which paints a rosy picture for the near-term.
We had added RALS to the reco list yesterday, but it is still awaiting for entry at 1,100.

Day Ahead

Inflation and trade data managed to support the JCI at the start of the week. Still, we need to see more of such data to further reduce the odds of having higher rates. Bank Indonesia will meet again on December 12th. For now,  Tuesday is seen as another positive for the JCI, but we cannot rule out a correctional dip, especially after a strong Monday session.

Minggu, 01 Desember 2013

Morning Dew - 2 December 2013

Awaiting Santa

JCI is entering December on a weaker footing as positive catalysts have dried out somewhat and negative catalysts are still abound.

BI’s hawkish stance on rates, weakening rupiah, fragile current account position, damages from the most recent fuel hike as well as higher minimum wages and poor debt sales result  are the negative factors dragging the JCI down. 

From abroad, improving US economy rather brought risk to the JCI as this will mean the tapering is close, followed by the beginning of a fresh tightening cycle in the U.S.

The only positive factor at the moment is probably the Chinese government’s renewed economic policy which is of course, will need more than just words to bear fruit…

If December is full of wishes, JCI wishes for Santa to come and jolt the index higher to secure a return trip to 5,000 in early 2014.

Payrolls and the Fed 

Payrolls are expected to be at 183k in November, falling below the October’s reading.  Unemployment rate however, is seen improving from 7.3% to 7.2%.
Fed is going to have its last session for the year in December. While there’s still the odds that the Fed will start tapering in December, it is a whole lot likely to have the Fed start taking out stimulus in February or March.

Technically Speaking...

JCI scored the week’s (as well as the month’s) low at 4,202. As support at 4,284 gave way, we are staring at the odds of testing the next support at 4,133. If 4,133 unable hold off the bears as well, we may revisit the old low at 3,837.
Indicators have started to form a bullish divergent pattern. As the index set a lower low, the MACD is still holding up flat while RSI has not set up a lower low. If this pattern is confirmed, we could see some decent rebound on JCI. Until then however, the outlook remains gloomy for coming sessions.

Week Ahead

A new month means a new set of data awaits. For JCI, domestic data will be under extra scrutiny, especially from corners such as inflation, current account, and rupiah. Should the CAD position remains precarious, we should not be surprise who’s going to trigger a hike again.