DISCLAIMER

This research report is prepared by PT MINNA PADI INVESTAMA Tbk for information purposes only and are not to be used or considered as an offer or the solicitation of an offer to sell or to buy or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. The report has been prepared without regard to individual financial circumstance, need or objective of person to receive it. The securities discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors. The appropriateness of any particular investment or strategy whether opined on or referred to in this report or otherwise will depend on an investor’s individual circumstance and objective and should be independently evaluated and confirmed by such investor, and, if appropriate, with his professional advisers independently before adoption or implementation (either as is or varied).

Minggu, 30 Maret 2014

March In Review

US Nonfarm Payrolls came in at 175k in February, exceeded the consensus of 149k and higher than January’s payrolls (+129k); unemployment rate ticked up to 6.7%, compared to consensus and January’s rate which were both at 6.6%. The data managed to re-established the upward momentum (March 10) but it was only
when the next big thing came up…

Jokowi for President. The declaration made by PDI-P sent euphoria on March 14, sending the JCI past layers of resistances as it soared 3.2% beyond 4,800 mark. The next day (March 15) the index hit this year’s peak at 4,903.50. Speculations now circulate on who will be appointed as Jokowi’s running mate in this year’s election.

Yellen Laid Out the Blueprint. The Fed did it again. Janet Yellen laid out the groundwork for the coming Fed’s rate rise. The Fed boss said that the central bank has dropped unemployment rate as one of its trigger for rate rise and that this year the FOMC will conclude its tapering campaign. With just $55 billion left in bond purchasing, it will take about six Fed meetings to cut it down to zero if the pace is to be maintained at $10bn each, or even faster if the FOMC chooses to step up the pace. About six months from there, the Fed may start raising rates – according to Yellen. Whether that was a slip-up by the Fed’s number one or not remains to be seen, but surely the statement knocked the JCI off its high…

Red Alert. Russia annexed Crimea after a referendum showed that almost all Crimeans chose to return to Russia after 60 years with Ukraine. The event triggered tensions between the West and Russia, leading to some sanctions imposed on Russia. The situations are still developing, but recently it was said that Putin has no plan to invade Ukraine and may prefer to take the diplomatic approach to settle the tensions. While the issue was initially negative, the impact to JCI is not expected to be prolonged and, as with other geopolitical issues, tend to be short-lived except
it will lead to a global conflict.

Click here to download the full update (PDF)

Kamis, 27 Maret 2014

Morning Dew - 28 March 2014

Taking A Pause

Global stocks took a pause as lack of fresh catalysts led to muted trading sessions.

Domestic indexes finished slightly down while European indexes ended mixed with DAX gained but FTSE fell slightly. The Dow ended slightly lower overnight.

Indonesian household consumption is seen growing 5.6% (yoy) in 1H14, according to DBS Bank. Legislative election which is scheduled to be held on April 9th 2014 is cited as the main reason behind the accelerated consumption. On GDP, DBS Bank forecast growth at about six percent this year, higher than BI’s forecast which stands between 5.5% to 5.9%. Last year, the economy grew by 5.78%.

The curtain is closing on the earnings season this week. Stocks may move individually as more companies will report their 2013 financial results.

USDIDR inched higher to 11,438 from 11,408 on Thursday.

BKSL, ROTI

BKSL’s net profit soared 185% in 2013 to IDR630,229 million as revenues gained 54.49% to IDR961,988 million. Assets and liabilities also saw significant jump by 73.31% and 183%, respectively. EPS for 2013 stood at IDR20 vs. IDR7 a year earlier. 
ROTI’s net profit increased 5.94% in 2013 to IDR158,015 million while EPS stood at IDR31.22 in 2013 vs. IDR29.47 a year earlier. Assets and liabilities at the end of 2013 were 51.27% and 92.32% higher compared to a year earlier.

Technically Speaking...

JCI continued to struggle on Thursday but so far managed to hold its ground above 4,700.

Recent peak-turned-support at 4,661 will be the next line of defense where this level was also the prior resistance-turned-support.

As the index fell, the nearest resistance shifts to 4,802, while the next one is seen at 4,917, ahead of 5,000 which is the psychological resistance and subsequently the projection target at 5,063. 

Volume started to kick up, while MACD remains negative. RSI has curled down some more as price sagged.

Day Ahead

Barely any significant fresh catalysts out there will lead the market into conundrum. Overall, the JCI may end March with a listless day while today will also see strong flow of financial reporting as earnings season close to an end this week.

Click here to download the full update (PDF)

Senin, 24 Maret 2014

Morning Dew - 25 March 2014

Cool in March

March inflation is seen lower than February or even deflated as prices of food commodities expected to ease. March and April tend to see lower inflation as harvest season culminates, BPS stated. Last February saw inflation slowed to 0.26% (MoM) from 1.07% seen in January, while throughout 2013 inflation was at 8.4%.

Russian economy may suffer as US and the EU are likely to impose more sanctions on the country which just annexed Crimea from Ukraine. The economy risks two quarters of recession, whilst the S&P and Fitch cut their outlook on 
Russian credit grade to negative from stable. Moody’s however, maintains the outlook at stable so far.

JCI climbed back up on Monday, maintaining its prospect of hitting 5k in the medium-term.

USDIDR fell to 11,384 from 11,431 on Monday.

Manufacturing Slowdown

US PMI for Manufacturing (Preliminary) edged lower to 55.5 in March from 57.1 a month earlier and lower than consensus of 56.5.

US Chicago Fed National Activity Index for February inched higher to 0.14 from -0.45, better than the consensus  of  0.08.

China PMI for Manufacturing fell to 48.1 in March from 48.5, against the consensus of a rise to 48.7. Reading below 50 marks contraction, above 50 means expansion.

Technically Speaking...

JCI clawed its way back above 4,720 on Monday, but short-term outlook seems fragile at the moment.

Recent peak-turned-support at 4,665 will be the next line of defense where this level was also the prior resistance-turned-support.

As the index fell, the nearest resistance shifts to 4,802, while the next one is seen at 4,917, ahead of 5,000 which is the psychological resistance and subsequently the projection target at 5,063. 

Volume continued to tick down, while MACD has turned negative. RSI has curled up a bit after some downticks.

Day Ahead

Politics, Ukraine, manufacturing slowdown and echoes from the Fed’s blueprint of its monetary policy as well as more financial results released will shape the market this Tuesday.  With weak footing on the European front and sagging US front, JCI is seen taking a step back as well on Tuesday’s session.

Click here to download the full update (PDF)

Sabtu, 22 Maret 2014

Morning Dew - 24 March 2014

Fed’s Timetable

JCI ended with slight gains on Friday as the index struggled to face the impact of recent Federal Reserve meeting’s decision.

The Fed is seen completing the tapering campaign this year and within six months or so after the stimulus has been removed completely the Fed plans to start raising the rates. With just $55 billion left to remove, about six meetings will be needed, should the Fed keeps the pace of $10bn per meeting intact.

The Federal Reserve will meet in April (29 &30), June (17 & 18), July (29 & 30), September (16 & 17), October (28 & 29) and December (16 & 17). Six months after that will be in mid-2015 when the Fed plans to start raising the rates – if the economic conditions support such decision.

Crimea Annexed

Russia finally annexed Crimea, snatching it back from Ukraine. Putin’s decision to annex Crimea sparked more sanctions applied by EU and US against Russia.

It remains to be seen whether Russia will aim for more beyond Crimea. The Russian leader recently said that he won’t, however.

Sanctions implied on Russia brought some blows to the country’s credit rating. Fitch and S&P had cut the outlook to negative while Moody’s still maintain the outlook to stable.

Technically Speaking...

JCI finished the Friday’s session with slight gains even as it managed to rack up some decent gains beforehand. 

Recent peak-turned-support at 4,665 will be the next line of defense where this level was also the prior resistance-turned-support.

As the index fell, the nearest resistance shifts to 4,802, while the next one is seen at 4,917, ahead of 5,000 which is the psychological resistance and subsequently the projection target at 5,063. 

Volume continued to tick down, as well as MACD and RSI have turned negative.

Week Ahead

The impacts from Fed’s decision is likely to “taper off” next week as the market focus will return to domestic issues which will be dominated by politics. After the naming of Jokowi as canditate, the market is eager to know who will be the VP.

Click here to download the full update (PDF)

Kamis, 20 Maret 2014

Morning Dew - 21 March 2014

Party Crasher

Statements coming out of the recent FOMC meeting sent the global stock markets tumbling. The FOMC expected the tapering campaign will be over soon this year, but interest rate is expected to be at 1% by the end of 2015. For 2016, the Fed officials predicted that rate will be at 2.25%. Rate rise will depend on a wide range of data, not just on unemployment rate which tie-in has been considered obsolete.

The Fed’s plan is not a big surprise, actually. Still, the markets across the globe reacted violently as investors book profit over recent gains. Thursday’s positive showing of US stocks signals that the rout may not be prolonged and that Friday will be a recovery day or at least an uneventful day.

JCI took a heavy beating on Thursday as all sectors went red. In addition, Wika Beton set its IPO price at IDR590 while Eka Sari Lorena Transport Tbk. set its offering price between IDR825 – 1,025.

US Data Mixed

US initial jobless claims were at 320k during the week ending March 15th. The figure was higher than prior week, but lower than the consensus 322k.

US existing home sales in February fell 0.4% after deeper fall during the precious month of 5.1%. Market had expected it falling by 0.4%.

Philly Fed index jumped from -6.3 to +9.0 in March. The consensus number was at 3.2

Technically Speaking...

JCI got hammered on Thursday as the index fell beyond 4,700, exposing the next line of defense at 4,665. 

Recent peak-turned-support at 4,665 will be the next line of defense where this level was also the prior resistance-turned-support.

As the index fell, the nearest resistance shifts to 4,802, while the next one is seen at 4,917, ahead of 5,000 which is the psychological resistance and subsequently the projection target at 5,063. 

Volume continued to tick down, as well as MACD and RSI which were also turned lower.

Unfortunately for TAXI, the reco has been closed as it fell below the suggested stop level. The reco incurred 3.46% losses.

Day Ahead

After getting savaged on Thursday, Friday session for JCI is expected to be less eventful as investors will tend to wait in the sidelines for fresh new catalysts. In the mean time, the impact from Yellen’s speech will remain a drag for JCI.

Click here to download the full update (PDF)

Rabu, 19 Maret 2014

Morning Dew - 20 March 2014

Laying Out the Groundwork

US Federal Reserve slashed its bond purchasing program to $55bn or by $10bn as its FOMC meeting concluded last night.

In addition, officials predicted their target interest rate would be 1% by the end of 2015 and 2.25% in the following year. This means the Fed will keep the rate from rising until 2015.

A wide range of data will determine when the Fed will raise the rate as 6.5% unemployment rate tie-in has been considered as obsolete.

According to Janet Yellen, there will be some considerable time between the end of stimulus – expected to be this fall – and the first rate increase, interpreted by her as “six months or something like that”.

US CAD Improved

US stocks fall as a response to the Fed’s statements. The longer the rates at the low level, the more upbeat the market will be. Now that the Fed has laid out the groundwork and narrowing the uncertainties, the market naturally falls as it knows that the days of easy monetary policy are numbered
.
US current account deficit was trimmed to US$81.1b in 4Q13 from US$96.4b, better than the expected US$88b.

Technically Speaking...

JCI bounced off its support area around 4,800 and ended the day higher at 4,821.
Recent peak-turned-support at 4,791 will be the nearest key support line for JCI, whereas another support will be at 4,665 as this was also the prior resistance-turned-support.

Next resistance is seen at 4,917, ahead of 5,000 which is the psychological resistance and subsequently the projection target at 5,063. While still a long-shot, the distant 5,653 price objective is now within radar.

Volume continued to tick down, as well as MACD and RSI which were also turned lower.

Day Ahead

Stocks may take another step back this Thursday as the Fed laid out the groundwork for its monetary policy. As stimulus is bound to end this year, this would mean the next will be on interest rate hike. Expectation of rising interest rate will take some wind of out of JCI’s sails. Still, the JCI will remain supported by Jokowi’s presidential candidacy.
Click here to download the full update (PDF)

Selasa, 18 Maret 2014

Morning Dew - 19 March 2014

Fed In Focus

Eyes will be back on the Fed as the FOMC set to meet again on Tuesday and Wednesday.  While rates are expected to be held steady, the FOMC is expected to curb another US$10bn of bond buying to $55bn from $65bn.

Housing starts also dipped by 0.2% after a 11.2% increase in January. 
As data remains timid, the Fed is likely to taper another $10bn of its bond purchases when the FOMC meeting concludes on Thursday.

From Ukraine, Russia’s Vladimir Putin stated that Russia do not want to split Ukraine. 

On the domestic front, the Jokowi effect remains supportive for stocks, but the next big thing will be the naming of Jokowi’s running partner for the presidential election this year. There is the odds that PDI-P will want to see the legislative election results first before naming its candidate for the VP position.

Consumer Inflation

Housing starts barely changed in February, following a 11.2% decline in January. February’s 0.2% drop was below the consensus of a rise of 3.4%.
US consumer inflation was up by 1.1% in February. The figure was trailing the consensus.  In January, the CPI was also up by 1.6%. Excluding the volatile food and energy components, CPI were up 0.1%, matching the consensus.

Technically Speaking...

JCI slipped further to end near its support at 4,805.61, down by 1.45%. Tuesday had brought  the JCI towards its support at 4,805.61.

Recent peak-turned-support at 4,791 will be the nearest key support line for JCI, whereas another support will be at 4,665 as this was also the prior resistance-turned-support.

Next resistance is seen at 4,917, ahead of 5,000 which is the psychological resistance and subsequently the projection target at 5,063. While still a long-shot, the distant 5,653 price objective is now within radar.

Volume ticked down, as well as MACD and RSI which turned lower.

Day Ahead

The Jokowi effect may as well endure for a while, dampening the negative impact coming from global factors such as Ukraine and the prospect of China’s economy slowdown. The next big thing for the domestic affairs will be who to be chosen as the candidate for vice president accompanying Jokowi in the presidential election. Fed meeting will also be watched closely, especially whether the FOMC will signal any changes in its economic assessments and/or monetary policy.
Click here to download the full update (PDF)

Senin, 17 Maret 2014

Morning Dew - 18 March 2014

Homecoming

After 60 years under Ukraine, around 96% of Crimeans voted to return to Russia. Despite the majority of the vote, Kiev, EU and the US said they do not recognize the vote. Russia on the other hand, said that the vote complied with international standards.

In 1954, Nikita Khrushchev gave Crimea to Ukraine as a gift.

The West has issued threats to sanction Russia if Russia seizes Crimea. US proposed a resolution in the UN Security Council to declare the referendum as illegal and emphasized the need for political dialogue to resolve the crisis. Russia vetoed the resolution while China abastained and the other 13 members backed the resolution.

So far, there is no signs that Vladimir Putin will be back off from annexing Crimea, even as the EU and the U.S. have decided to freeze assets and impose visa travel bans on some Russians, Crimeans as well as former Ukrainian officials.

Eyes Back on the Fed

US factory output jumped 0.8% in February, the most in six months reversing a 0.9% decline in January. New York ISM however, inched higher to 5.61 from 4.48, trailing consensus of 6.5.
Eyes will be back on the Fed as the FOMC set to meet again on Tuesday and Wednesday.  While rates are expected to be held steady, the FOMC is expected to curb another US$10bn of bond buying to $55bn from $65bn.

Technically Speaking...

After setting up another peak for 2014 at 4,903.50, JCI stepped back a bit and ended the day at 4,876.19.

Recent peak-turned-support at 4,791 will be the nearest key support line for JCI, whereas another support will be at 4,665 as this was also the prior resistance-turned-support.

Next resistance is seen at 4,917, ahead of 5,000 which is the psychological resistance and subsequently the projection target at 5,063. While still a long-shot, the distant 5,653 price objective is now within radar.

MACD continued to rise on Monday, volume ticked down while RSI also continue to rise beyond the 70% mark.

ANTM has been filled at its suggested entry price at 1,100.

Day Ahead

The Jokowi effect may as well endure for a while, dampening the negative impact coming from global factors such as Ukraine and the prospect of China’s economy slowdown. The next big thing for the domestic affairs will be who to be chosen as the candidate for vice president accompanying Jokowi in the presidential election. Fed meeting will also be watched closely, especially whether the FOMC will signal any changes in its economic assessments and/or monetary policy.

Click here to download the full update (PDF)

Minggu, 16 Maret 2014

Morning Dew - 17 March 2014



Jokowi Effect

Just before the Jokowi effect set in, the JCI had been under intense pressure after a 200-point drop of the Dow Jones index overnight. From down by almost 1%, the JCI roared back and sliced through layers of resistances before ending the day up more than 3% at 4,878.

Jokowi announced that he was “mandated” by Megawati Soekarnoputri to become PDI-P’s candidate for the 2014 Presidential election. Doubts surrounding his candidacy were erased as optimism set in. According to various surveys, Jokowi holds the lead over other candidates such as Gerindra’s Prabowo, Golkar’s ARB as well as Hanura’s Wiranto, even PDI-P’s Megawati herself.

The next big question is who will be his VP? Will it be another large coalition to be made or will it be a much smaller coalition instead?

Ukraine and China

While Jokowi saved the day for JCI, other major stock indexes around the world are still shrouded by the prospect of China’s economic slowdown as well as the failure of the peace talks between Russia and US.

Bank Indonesia has lowered its forecast for growth in 2014 to 5.5% - 5.9% from 5.8% - 6.2% on the back of less robust expansion of domestic consumption as well as exports.

Technically Speaking...

JCI roared its way past the key resistance at 4,791 with ease, opening a fresh opportunity towards the next objective at 5,063.

Recent peak-turned-support at 4,791 will be the nearest key support line for JCI, whereas another support will be at 4,665 as this was also the prior resistance-turned-support.

Next resistance is seen at 4,917, ahead of 5,000 which is the psychological resistance and subsequently the projection target at 5,063. While still a long-shot, the distant 5,653 price objective is now within radar.

MACD jumped on Friday, with volume still strong despite slight slip-up. RSI has turned higher again, back within the overbought area (>70%).

Both ROTI and TAXI have been filled at their respective entry points.

Week Ahead

The Jokowi effect may as well endure for a while, dampening the negative impact coming from global factors such as Ukraine and the prospect of China’s economy slowdown. Financials led the Friday’s gains, but as Jokowi is viewed to be benefiting construction of infrastructures, constructions are expected to shine if Jokowi wins the election. Gains by PTPP, ADHI, WIKA, and WSKT reinforce this view.

Click here to download the full update (PDF)

Rabu, 12 Maret 2014

Morning Dew - 13 March 2014

BI Rate In Focus

Another setback for the JCI took it back below the 4,700 handle as lack of fresh catalysts set in. Previous impacts from Ukraine and Chinese data have slowly dissipated and the upcoming Bank Indonesia policy meeting will be taking over the lead on Thursday.

As inflation has eased to 7.75% in February, BI is seen not in a big rush to tighten the monetary policy and expected to keep the rate at 7.5%.  BI has its inflation target this year at 3.5%-5.5% and repeatedly stated that the target is still within reach.

USDIDR’s recent strength has also dampened the odds that BI will raise the rate soon. After over 20% drop in 2013, IDR has rebounded over 5% this year and was last seen at 11,432 on Wednesday, slightly up from 11,384 a day earlier.

China’s Data Due

Industrial production for January-February 2013 is seen up 9.5%, slower than 9.7% seen a year earlier. Retail sales for January-February 2013 is seen accelerating from 13.1% to 13.5%. Both data are scheduled for release on Thursday.

In the US, retail sales are seen up 0.2% in February after a 0.4% drop a month earlier. Excluding automotive sales, retail sales were slightly up by 0.1% after being stagnant during the previous month.

Technically Speaking...

JCI backed away from recent peak at 4,706-4,708 and settled the day back below the 4,700 handle at 4,684.

Recent peak-turned-support at 4,665 will be the nearest key support line for JCI, whereas another support will be at 4,510 as this was also the prior resistance-turned-support.
Next resistance is seen at around 4,710 and subsequently 4,791.

MACD has returned to above the zero line, but it is now drifting back into the negative area, creating a bearish divergence setup. while RSI stays close the overbought area but also close for a slipup. Meanwhile, volume ticked up a bit. As sharp rally risks pullbacks, the upside potential remains intact.

ROTI remains an open recommendation as it waits to be filled, BKSL found its fill at 185.
LPKR reco has been completed as it reached its objective at 1,100. It gained 17.02%.


Day Ahead

Weak performances from Europe and US stock indexes point at another potential setback for JCI this Thursday. JCI remains on track to reach its objective at 4,791 however, but the progress is seen slow. BI meeting will be the focus of the day, but the central bank is seen delivering no surprises at the moment.

Click here to download the full update (PDF)

Senin, 10 Maret 2014

Morning Dew - 11 March 2014

China Factor

JCI fell on the back of weak China data. The Chinese exports were reportedly down in February, missing most analysts’ forecasts.
Situation in Ukraine remains tense as Russian forces advance into the Ukrainian Crimean Peninsula despite Western urge to back away from military takeover.
Recent better-than-expected payrolls seemed to have failed to ease down the jitters over weaker Chinese exports.

China’s Exports Fell

Exports fell 18.1% year-on-year in China as February data showed. The figure was way off the consensus which forecast a 7.5% increase. As imports rose 10.1%, beating the consensus of a 7.6% gains, the trade balance stood at a deficit of $23billion, a two-year high.
Inflation decelerated in February to 2% from 2.5% seen in January. The producer prices fell 2%, the most since July 2013.

Technically Speaking...

JCI fell as Chinese data disappoints. Despite it fell, the index is still eyeing at the next big thing at 4,791.

Recent peak-turned-support at 4,665 will be the nearest key support line for JCI, whereas another support will be at 4,510 as this was also the prior resistance-turned-support.

Next resistance is seen at around 4,710 and subsequently 4,791.

MACD has returned to above the zero line, but it is now drifting back into the negative area, creating a bearish divergence setup. while RSI stays close the overbought area but also close for a slipup. Meanwhile, volume ticked down a bit. As sharp rally risks pullbacks, the upside potential remains intact.

ROTI has been added to the open recommendation list.

Day Ahead

As expected, the week have started on a weaker footing as concerns over Chinese data overwhelmed the market. Upside potential remains favored however, as the index eyes on 4,791.

Click here to download the full update (PDF)

Minggu, 09 Maret 2014

Morning Dew - 10 March 2014

Payrolls Beat Forecast

JCI stumbled upon resistance at 4,710 and pushed back to end the Friday session at 4,685.

US nonfarm payrolls managed to beat the consensus as 175k jobs were added to the economy in February. In January, payrolls recorded an additional 129k of new jobs. Unemployment rate however, ticked up to 6.7% from 6.6% as more people came into the workforce.

While payrolls managed to keep the Dow out of the red, the concerns over Ukraine overshadowed  the mood and thus limited the upside potential.

China’s Exports Fell

Exports fell 18.1% year-on-year in China as February data showed. The figure was way off the consensus which forecast a 7.5% increase. As imports rose 10.1%, beating the consensus of a 7.6% gains, the trade balance stood at a deficit of $23billion, a two-year high.

Inflation decelerated in February to 2% from 2.5% seen in January. The producer prices fell 2%, the most since July 2013.

Technically Speaking...

JCI ended the week with solid gains as it broke through its resistance at 4,665 and went all the way to as high as 4,708. Despite it got knocked off high on Friday, the index is still eyeing at the next big thing at 4,791.

Recent peak-turned-support at 4,665 will be the nearest key support line for JCI, whereas another support will be at 4,510 as this was also the prior resistance-turned-support.

Next resistance is seen at around 4,710 and subsequently 4,791.

MACD has returned to above the zero line now, while RSI stays close the overbought area. Meanwhile, volume ticked down a bit. As sharp rally risks pullbacks, the upside potential remains intact.

INDF reached its target price at 7,400. Thus, the recommendation is now closed with gains of 12.12%.

Week Ahead

Upbeat payrolls will compete with China’s falling export as well as the Ukrainian factor. The coming week may start on a weaker footing on China’s data but the downside is seen limited. Upside potential remains favored as the index eyes on 4,791.

Click here to download the full update (PDF)

Kamis, 06 Maret 2014

Morning Dew - 7 March 2014

Eyes on Payrolls

The rally continued on Thursday, sending the JCI to as high as 4,688. The index has managed to break through its resistance, opening another door towards 4,791.
US jobless claims fell to 323k in the recent week, lower than the expected 336k and also falling behind the prior week’s reading of 349k. Elsewhere, US factory orders fell 0.7% in January, following a 2% decline in December. The fall was worse than 0.5% decline forecast by analysts.
US nonfarm payrolls is expected to increase to 150k in February, better than the January’s increase of 113k. The key US data is due on Friday and is one of the key indicators monitored by the Federal Reserve. Another element of job report is the unemployment rate which is expected to stay at 6.6%.

MERK and TLKM

MERK saw a 62.74% increase in net profit in 2013 to IDR175,445 million as its revenues jumped 28.4% to IDR1,193,952 million. Both assets and liabilities were up by 22.39% and 20.98%, respectively.

In the telco business, TLKM’s profit grew 10.54% to IDR14,205 billion in 2013. Revenues growth was at 7.55% while assets and liabilities were up by 14.89% and 13.82%, respectively.

Technically Speaking...

JCI broke through its resistance at 4,665 and went all the way to 4,688. The index is now eyeing at the next big thing at 4,791.

Recent peak-turned-support at 4,665 will be the nearest key support line for JCI, whereas another support will be at 4,510 as this was also the prior resistance-turned-support.

Next resistance is seen at around 4,791.

MACD has returned to above the zero line now, while RSI has curled back up heading towards the overbought area. Meanwhile, volume ticked up. Sharp rally risks pullbacks but the upside potential remains intact.

Day Ahead

As Ukraine stays cool and US jobless claims managed to beat the consensus, the investors’ mood stays upbeat. This signals for more gains to come in the Friday’s session. Still, the recent rally points at potential short-term correction is still a risk for JCI.

Click here to download the full update (PDF)

Rabu, 05 Maret 2014

Morning Dew - 6 March 2014

Speed Bumps

JCI continued to rally as it ended the day up by 1.26% at 4,659 on the back of cooling situation in Ukraine. As the Dow cooled down as well overnight, the JCI is also seen hitting speed bumps on the coming session.

From the Fed, during her swearing-in event in Washington, the new Fed boss Janet Yellen said that the central bank has more to do to reach its inflation and unemployment goals as well as to repair damage from the financial crisis. The Fed will have its regular monetary policy meeting on March 18 and 19 and the central bank is expected to keep chipping away its stimulus by another US$10bn.

US ADP report showed that private sector has added 139k new jobs in February, short of 155k expected but better than the downwardly revised January figure which stood at 127k. In the service sector, US ISM index fell to 51.6 in February from 54 in prior month.

TOWR and ANTM

Net profit halved at TOWR during 2013 despite its revenues jumped 41.14% to IDR3,197,139 million. Both assets and liabilities also grew by 14.29% and 16.89%, respectively.

State-owned ANTM revenues rose slightly by 8.12% to IDR11,298,322 million, leading to sharp decline in net profit which dropped 86.3% to IDR409,944 million. Liabilities growth outpaced assets growth by 3 to 1. Assets grew 10.94% while liabilities were up by 31.93%.

Technically Speaking...

JCI soared 1.26% to end at 4,659.17, following its initial bounce on Tuesday and closing in towards its resistance level at 4,665.

Recent peak-turned-support at 4,477 will be the nearest key support line for JCI, whereas the 200-day EMA at 4,440 will be the subsequent support area. Nearer support will be at 4,510 as this was the prior resistance-turned-support.

Nearest resistance is seen at around 4,665, Friday’s high. Meanwhile, 4,791 will be the next hurdle to crack should 4,650 gives way.

MACD has returned to above the zero line now, while RSI has curled back up heading towards the overbought area. Meanwhile, volume ticked up. Sharp rally is expected to put some speed bump on JCI this Thursday but the upside potential remains intact.

Day Ahead

Cooling down in Ukraine is expected to stay for now. As tension recedes, stocks will be benefited. Sharp rise on Wednesday however, could spark some profit-taking in Thursday’s session as seen in Europe and US. The Dow fell 0.22% on Wednesday while the German DAX and UK FTSE fell 0.49% and 0.71%, respectively.

Click here to download the full update (PDF)

Selasa, 04 Maret 2014

Morning Dew - 5 March 2014

Cooling Down

Global rout took a pause on Tuesday after Russia ordered its troops to return to base, easing the tension in Ukraine for now. Still, with Vladimir Putin’s intent to protect Russian interests in Ukraine, risk of tensions to return remains on the table.

WIKA Beton is set for IPO as the shares of WIKA’s subsidiary is offered between 470-630 per share starting on Tuesday. WIKA Beton appointed Bahana Securities, Danareksa Securities, Mandiri Sekuritas and Sucorinvest Central Gani as its underwriters. The company that produces construction materials offers 2.04 billion shares which is equivalent to 23.47% of its enlarged equity. Listing is expected on April 3rd.

USDIDR bounced to 11,647 from 11,596 after a string of weaknesses.

HEXA and PLIN

HEXA reported its 3Q13 which ended in December 2013 as revenues plunged 28.12% to US$342,802k while net profit shrunk to US$16,913k from US$48,613k or down 65.21%. Assets were down slightly by 0.88% while liabilities inched 0.73% higher to US$219,039k.

PLIN also slumped in 2013 as its revenues fell 18.53%, sending the net profit down by 83.38% to IDR40,547 million.  Assets growth was at 4.47%, outpaced by liabilities which grew by 14.5%.

Technically Speaking...

JCI bounced to return above the 4,600 mark after it got sunk on Monday.

Recent peak-turned-support at 4,477 will be the nearest key support line for JCI, whereas the 200-day EMA at 4,440 will be the subsequent support area. Nearer support will be at 4,510 as this was the prior resistance-turned-support.

Nearest resistance is seen at around 4,665, Friday’s high. Meanwhile, 4,791 will be the next hurdle to crack should 4,650 gives way.

MACD has turned lower now, while RSI has backed away from the overbought area. With global stock indexes bouncing off lows, the JCI is expected to be rebounding as well on Wednesday.

PTPP reached its target price at 1,500, hence the recommendation is now closed with a gains of 29.31% (entry price was at 1,160).


Day Ahead

Putin toned down the Russian stance on Ukraine, giving the global market a big sigh of relief. European and American stock indexes were gaining overnight and this should look good for Asian regionals on Wednesday morning. 

Click here to download the full update (PDF)

Senin, 03 Maret 2014

Morning Dew - 4 March 2014

Ukrainian Heat

Global rout took down JCI to end at 4,584.21 or down by 0.78% at the start of the month. Ukrainian heat sent nervous investors fleeing equities. The situation is expected to remain tense as Russian initiative is being criticized by international community. 

Inflation eased in February to 7.75% (year-on-year) from 8.22% seen in January. Month-on-month, inflation stood at 0.26% in February, significantly decelerated from the same period last year when it was at 0.75% and also slower than January’s month-on-month inflation of 1.07%. Instant food, drinks, cigarettes and tobacco were contributing to the rise in February. 

Trade surplus turned to deficit in January as exports fell 5.79% to US$14.48 billion while imports fell 3.46% to US$14.92 billion, bringing a deficit of US$430.6 million. Raw minerals ban sent mineral ore exports down by more than 70% during the period.

USDIDR continued to fall to 11,596 from 11,634.

KRAS, BPFI and IMJS

KRAS saw less losses in 2013 as it recorded a loss of US$13,986k vs. US$20,435k in prior year. Its revenues however, fell 8.87% to $2,084,448k while its assets and liabilities were also down by 7.12% and 8.2%, respectively.

BPFI booked a 23.97% jump in net profit in 2013 as its net income rose by 31.38%. Assets grew 50.98% while liabilities were up by 69.74%.

IMJS booked net profit of 121,533 million in 2013, reversing prior year’s losses of 66 million.  Revenues were up 21.47% to 1,473,970 million

Technically Speaking...

JCI slipped by 0.78% to end the day at 4,584.21 as geopolitics sour the mood.
Recent peak-turned-support at 4,477 will be the nearest key support line for JCI, whereas the 200-day EMA at 4,440 will be the subsequent support area. Nearer support will be at 4,510 as this was the prior resistance-turned-support.

Nearest resistance is seen at around 4,665, Friday’s high. Meanwhile, 4,791 will be the next hurdle to crack should 4,650 gives way.

MACD continued to tick down, capping the upside potential at the moment while volume gradually ticks up. RSI has made its turn lower, but still near the overbought area. The hammering of global stock indexes hinted at more losses to come.

Day Ahead

Stocks are expected to remain under pressure on Tuesday as Russian military strengthens its presence in the Crimea. Improving inflation data clashed with souring trade balance, hence offering no significant boost to the mood from domestic side. As more financial reporting continue, Wika Beton is poised to go public.

Click here to download the full update (PDF)

Minggu, 02 Maret 2014