Morning Dew - 1 May 2013

Key Points

• JCI ended its conundrum on Tuesday as the index surged to a fresh record high at 5,034.07. This set-up a new set of projection targets: 5068, 5133, and 5239. In addition, old projection targets still remain at 5121 and 5284. Key support now seen at 4962 while even more critical one lies at 4856.
• All three remaining recos have reached their entry points. KBLI (280), BKSL (285) and BIPI (166). On the other hand, PTPP managed to meet its final objective at 1400, hence it exited with gains of 64.71%.
• Consumer confidence climbed to 68.1, beating forcasts. However, business activity in Chicago area seen retreating to the contraction zone as the index fell to 49 from 52.4 in March.
• JCI expected to continue its positive tone on Wednesday as U.S. Stocks gained overnight. Major positive catalyst remains the easy monetary policy from central banks (Fed and ECB). Fed meeting later tonite and ECB to meet tomorrow. Rate cut is expected from the ECB while the Fed is seen to maintain its stimulus intact.

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Morning Dew - 30 April 2013

Key Points

• JCI remained range-bound at the start of the week. Despite it managed to slightly popped above 5,000, it ended slightly below the mark at 4999.75, still gaining 21.25 points or up 0.43%. No change in supports and resistances for now. Supports are seen at 4960-62; 4941; 4921-26; and 4896 before the key 4856. Resistances are expected at 5016 and 5027 before it can clear the way towards 5120 en route to 5284. Overnight rally in both European and U.S. sessions set up another positive session for Tuesday.
• U.S.'s data calendar started with better than expected pending home sales for March. Sales were up 1.5% after a 1% decline while the consensus came in at 1% increase. Consumer spending slowed to a rise of 0.2% after a 0.7% gain in March while at the same time personal income also slowed to 0.2% after a 1.1% rise in February. One of Fed's inflation indicators, PCE price index continued to decelerate in March. YoY core PCE slowed to 1.1% from 1.3% to 1.1% while headline deflator slowed to 1% from 1.3%.

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Morning Dew - 29 April 2013

Key Points

• JCI maintained its footing throughout the week but fatigue was clearly visible. A new all-time high set at 5,026.92 has not been followed through by another strong push upwards. Hence, corrective wave is still a possibility in the coming week. Supports are seen at 4960-62; 4941; 4921-26; and 4896 before the key 4856. Resistances are expected at 5016 and 5027 before it can clear the way towards 5120 en route to 5284. 
• U.S. GDP grew less than expected in 1Q as growth was reported at 2.5% annually compared to 0.4% growth in 4Q12. Initially, the consensus came in at 3%. Growth in 1Q13 was supported by consumer spending which took the biggest chunk of the economy as it rose the most since 4Q10. Thomson Reuters/U of Michigan consumer sentiment  index for April also came in below expectation.
• Next week U.S. Data will feature a busy schedule with the releases of the key non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate, personal income and consumption as well as trade balance, pending home sales and the US ISM index for manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors.

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Morning Dew - 26 April 2013

Key Points

• Another slip below the 5k mark for JCI, but it managed to stay afloat above the support at 4,960. Again, the index will face resistances at 5,026.92, 5,089 and 5,120 while supports stay at 4,960, 4,940 and 4,920 before the key 4,895. Expect another consolidation around the 5k mark during the upcoming Friday session.
• U.S.'s better-than-expected jobless claims provided some boost for the Dow as claims fell 16k to 339k during last week. The reading came in below the consensus of 350k. The smaller the number, the better. U.K. GDP also came in better than expected as growth was reportedly at 0.3% in 1Q13. Rate cut expectation in Euro zone remains a positive catalyst for now as inflation under control while German economic outlook dims.
• Final day of the week will feature U.S. GDP for the 1Q13 as well as U of Michigan confidence index for April. Confidence is seen up from 72.3 to 73.5 while U.S. GDP is seen growing at 3.1% pace in 1Q13.
• Friday's session is seen neutral with slightly positive bias for the JCI as the index is set to continue struggling to defend its ground above 5k mark.

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Morning Dew - 25 April 2013

Key Points

• JCI finally managed to set a close above 5,000 mark at 5,011.61 after several failed attempts earlier. Now the index sees resistances at 5,026.92, 5,089 and 5,120 while supports stay at 4,960, 4,940 and 4,920 before the key 4,895. In addition, the intraday low at 4,987.10 should provide a minor support for the upcoming sessions.
• Overnight gains from U.S. Stocks boosted regionals performance on the Asian front. Both Nikkei and Hang Seng indexes soared. Expectations of a rate cut by the European Central Bank at the back of weakening German economic condition also provided support. Tuesday's poor showing of German PMI might be the trigger of a rate cut as soon as next week when the ECB meets.
• Dow slipped after U.S. Durable goods orders fell more than expected in March. Headline numbers fell 5.7% vs. 3% decline expected after 4.3% rise in February. Ex-transport items orders fell 1.4% vs. 0.5% increase expected. NASDAQ and S&P 500 little changed.

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Morning Dew - 24 April 2013

Key Points

• JCI fell to test the support at 4,973.58 (Monday’s low) to hit the low at 4,971.10 before settled at 4,975.33. Fatigue has become visible after two consecutive failures to hold the close above 5,000 mark. Support now seen at 4,960, 4,940 and 4,920 before the crucial 4,895. Resistances remain seen at 5,026.92, 5,089 and 5,120.
• Other major Asian indices also slipped while Euro zone and German PMI indexes for manufacturing worsened in April, adding concern for prolonged slowdown in European economic outlook. France saw improvements in both manufacturing and service sectors while EZ saw its service sector index ticked up. Nevertheless, all of these indexes have stayed below the 50 mark, the borderline between expansion and contraction.
• U.S. New home sales up 1.5%, trailing estimates of a 1.9% increase but a sharp turnaround against prior month's 7.6% dip. The Dow sank steeply on a false report of an explosion in the White House, but immediately rallied to finally ended the day up by more than 1%
• Goldman Sachs closed its sell recommendation on gold after the metal exceeded its target at $1,450. Now GS targets gold at $1,530 in 3 months, $1,490 in 6 months, and $1,390 in 12 months. GS issued sell reco on gold before the metal fell 13% recently.

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Morning Dew - 23 April 2013

Key Points

• Another fresh all-time high for JCI yet another failure to close above 5,000 psychological mark. JCI hit 5,026.92 early on Monday but slumped to hit 4,973.58 afterwards before the index stabilized just below 5,000 at the end of the day. Bulls should remain cautious as downside risk remains. Supports now at 4,973.58, 4,960, 4,940, 4,920, and 4,895. Resistances are seen at 5,026.92, 5,089 and 5,120.
• Nikkei jumped on Monday's session after G20 gave support to its recent agressive monetary policy measure.
• APLN met its entry level at 480, leaving KBLI as the remaining unfilled recommendation on the list.
• U.S. Existing home sales data triggered early slump on U.S. Stocks but the Dow rebounded later and ended up 0.14% on rising commodities prices. Sales fell 0.6% in March after a 0.2% rise in prior month. The market had expected it to rise 0.4%. Rising commodities may provide support to mining and basic materials sectors this Tuesday.

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