Morning Dew - 23 July 2013

Key Points

• JCI struggled at the start of the week as it failed to climb past 4740 prior peak and instead fell back to reach its first-line support at 4679 (4677). This raised a concern that we may see a deeper correction of the recent rally from 4433 to 4740. The retracement points of this rally are spotted at 4660, 4611, 4571 and 4531 with 4482 as the most distant point. Examining the structure of the current wave c of B, we are most likely within the wave ii of c, with expected terminus at around 4582 (this points at the significance of 4571) or around 4482-4495 under a more pessimist scenario. Nevertheless, we need to crack the key 4740 to negate the bearish pressure in the near-term. JCI is seen range-bound from 4677-4740.
• Japan PM Shinzo Abe's victory over the weekend vote received a positive response early at start of the Monday session. With this victory, Abe is seen to have more power to implement his growth strategy. It remains to be seen whether he will succeed in doing so, but the market so far is confident.
• Not much to be seen from U.S. this week except from corporate calendar which is packed with corporate earnings. Monday saw minor gains from the US indices, which translate into a positive Tuesday session for JCI, especially after a dip.

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