Morning Dew - 29 July 2013

Key Points

• JCI was successful in cracking the resistance at 4740, but the rally was capped at 4779 before the index slipped back to end the week at 4658. The fall hinted that the wave c of B which started at 4403 could have ended at 4779 and that the index is currently unfolding the second leg of the wave c. Several retracement points are used to project the end of this wave (2): 4635, 4591, 4546, and 4492. We also have 4582 (the terminus point of minor wave (iv)) which suggests that 4582-4591 will be the key support area next week. Upside, only above 4779 will confirm that the current wave (2) of c is over.
• Aside from lack of macro catalysts, the upcoming one-week closing of IDX will sap the investors' appetite to position their trades. Meanwhile, the next big thing on the US economic calendar is the nonfarm payrolls for July, which will be responded only after holiday is over. That will be a week after the data is released. As we get nearer to September, expect the market jitters over the Fed's monetary policy to return to the central stage.
• Poor 1H13 financial report has cost MAPI dearly. The reco has been closed at a loss of 9.35%. ASRI finally found its entry spot at 710, so there will be six active recos to start next week.
• Elsewhere, US stocks ended the week barely changed with the Dow gained 0.1% and the S&P slipped 0.03%.Both FTSE and DAX fell over 1% each in Europe throughout the week.

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