BI Rate In Focus
Another setback for the JCI took it back below the 4,700 handle as lack of fresh catalysts set in. Previous impacts from Ukraine and Chinese data have slowly dissipated and the upcoming Bank Indonesia policy meeting will be taking over the lead on Thursday.
As inflation has eased to 7.75% in February, BI is seen not in a big rush to tighten the monetary policy and expected to keep the rate at 7.5%. BI has its inflation target this year at 3.5%-5.5% and repeatedly stated that the target is still within reach.
USDIDR’s recent strength has also dampened the odds that BI will raise the rate soon. After over 20% drop in 2013, IDR has rebounded over 5% this year and was last seen at 11,432 on Wednesday, slightly up from 11,384 a day earlier.
China’s Data Due
Industrial production for January-February 2013 is seen up 9.5%, slower than 9.7% seen a year earlier. Retail sales for January-February 2013 is seen accelerating from 13.1% to 13.5%. Both data are scheduled for release on Thursday.
In the US, retail sales are seen up 0.2% in February after a 0.4% drop a month earlier. Excluding automotive sales, retail sales were slightly up by 0.1% after being stagnant during the previous month.
Technically Speaking...
JCI backed away from recent peak at 4,706-4,708 and settled the day back below the 4,700 handle at 4,684.
Recent peak-turned-support at 4,665 will be the nearest key support line for JCI, whereas another support will be at 4,510 as this was also the prior resistance-turned-support.
Next resistance is seen at around 4,710 and subsequently 4,791.
MACD has returned to above the zero line, but it is now drifting back into the negative area, creating a bearish divergence setup. while RSI stays close the overbought area but also close for a slipup. Meanwhile, volume ticked up a bit. As sharp rally risks pullbacks, the upside potential remains intact.
ROTI remains an open recommendation as it waits to be filled, BKSL found its fill at 185.
LPKR reco has been completed as it reached its objective at 1,100. It gained 17.02%.
Day Ahead
Weak performances from Europe and US stock indexes point at another potential setback for JCI this Thursday. JCI remains on track to reach its objective at 4,791 however, but the progress is seen slow. BI meeting will be the focus of the day, but the central bank is seen delivering no surprises at the moment.
Another setback for the JCI took it back below the 4,700 handle as lack of fresh catalysts set in. Previous impacts from Ukraine and Chinese data have slowly dissipated and the upcoming Bank Indonesia policy meeting will be taking over the lead on Thursday.
As inflation has eased to 7.75% in February, BI is seen not in a big rush to tighten the monetary policy and expected to keep the rate at 7.5%. BI has its inflation target this year at 3.5%-5.5% and repeatedly stated that the target is still within reach.
USDIDR’s recent strength has also dampened the odds that BI will raise the rate soon. After over 20% drop in 2013, IDR has rebounded over 5% this year and was last seen at 11,432 on Wednesday, slightly up from 11,384 a day earlier.
China’s Data Due
Industrial production for January-February 2013 is seen up 9.5%, slower than 9.7% seen a year earlier. Retail sales for January-February 2013 is seen accelerating from 13.1% to 13.5%. Both data are scheduled for release on Thursday.
In the US, retail sales are seen up 0.2% in February after a 0.4% drop a month earlier. Excluding automotive sales, retail sales were slightly up by 0.1% after being stagnant during the previous month.
Technically Speaking...
JCI backed away from recent peak at 4,706-4,708 and settled the day back below the 4,700 handle at 4,684.
Recent peak-turned-support at 4,665 will be the nearest key support line for JCI, whereas another support will be at 4,510 as this was also the prior resistance-turned-support.
Next resistance is seen at around 4,710 and subsequently 4,791.
MACD has returned to above the zero line, but it is now drifting back into the negative area, creating a bearish divergence setup. while RSI stays close the overbought area but also close for a slipup. Meanwhile, volume ticked up a bit. As sharp rally risks pullbacks, the upside potential remains intact.
ROTI remains an open recommendation as it waits to be filled, BKSL found its fill at 185.
LPKR reco has been completed as it reached its objective at 1,100. It gained 17.02%.
Day Ahead
Weak performances from Europe and US stock indexes point at another potential setback for JCI this Thursday. JCI remains on track to reach its objective at 4,791 however, but the progress is seen slow. BI meeting will be the focus of the day, but the central bank is seen delivering no surprises at the moment.
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