DISCLAIMER

This research report is prepared by PT MINNA PADI INVESTAMA Tbk for information purposes only and are not to be used or considered as an offer or the solicitation of an offer to sell or to buy or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. The report has been prepared without regard to individual financial circumstance, need or objective of person to receive it. The securities discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors. The appropriateness of any particular investment or strategy whether opined on or referred to in this report or otherwise will depend on an investor’s individual circumstance and objective and should be independently evaluated and confirmed by such investor, and, if appropriate, with his professional advisers independently before adoption or implementation (either as is or varied).

Kamis, 30 Mei 2013

Morning Dew - 31 May 2013

Key Points
  • Better than expected data may spark declines while worse than expected data may actually put up support on sentiment. At least that's what we may be seeing for some time. The Dow escaped another round of decline after the U.S. 1Q13 GDP was reportedly growing at the rate of 2.4%, less than the expected 2.5%. In addition, jobless claims also ticked up last week to 354k, more than expected; plus pending home sales decelerated in April, much slower than last month's month-on-month data. Less than expected data will give more case for the Fed to maintain its stimulus rather than scaling it back, hence market-friendly - for now.
  • JCI fell to as low as 5111 on Thursday, just above the support at 5108 before it settled the day at 5129. While the downside remains open, the small gains on U.S. and European stocks overnight may limit the downside for now. Supports remain at 5108 while below 5072 could trigger a deeper fall towards 5046. Upside is seen capped around 5225.08 with near-term resistance at 5153. As the MACD slips back to the negative with RSI falling, we're simply not out of the woods yet. 
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Rabu, 29 Mei 2013

Morning Dew - 30 May 2013

Key Points
  • JCI climbed for another day to reach 5225.08 but got pushed back to finish the day at 5200.69. The gains are expected to be further trimmed on Thursday after the European and U.S. stock indexes fell on Wednesday night. Resistances are seen at 5225.08, 5251.30, 5284 and 5300 with further target at 5367. Near-term supports are expected at 5189, 5167, 5148, 5130, and 5108. Below 5072 will risk 5046.
  • The sentiment went south again during Europe and US sessions as investors realigned their focus back on to the Fed's monetary policy and after the positive impact from U.S. data turned out to be short-lived. While Japan and Europe re-emphasized that they will keep their respective stimulus on, the Fed stated that the stimulus could be reduced if sustained improvement in growth is seen. As stated yesterday, Fed's last week statement could mark the beginning of an end of the entire Fed's easing cycle. 
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Selasa, 28 Mei 2013

Morning Dew - 29 May 2013

Key Points
  • JCI soared on Tuesday after came under pressure during prior sessions. The index fell briefly to 5072 before rallying higher to 5186.82 and settled the day at 5176.23. Technical indicators which were bearish earlier took a sharp turn as the daily candle formed bullish engulfing pattern coupled with a turnaround in MACD and supported by a jump in volume. Resistance will come next at 5209, followed by the all-time high figure at 5251.30, 5284, 5300 and 5367 while near-term support lies at 5160. More supports come at 5143 and 5129.
  • We should be aware that the rout last week started when the Fed chairman Ben Bernanke dropped a hint that while the Fed won't remove its stimulus, scaling it down has been viewed as an option. Depending on the next three months of data, the Fed will consider its next move. The sources of the rally on Tuesday came from Japan and Europe instead where both central banks' officials pledged to keep their accommodative stances as long as necessary. This mismatch means that we're not out of the woods yet and that unless Fed officials pledge the same view like their Japanese and European counterparts, the downside risks still remain.
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Senin, 27 Mei 2013

Morning Dew - 28 May 2013

Key Points
  • Another rout for JCI at the beginning of the week after last week's statement from the Fed boss Ben Bernanke that the US central bank may scale back its stimulus should the US economic data warrants it, especially if employment outlook gets better. In addition, bearish echoes from the latest China's manufacturing PMI data remain. Technically speaking, the decline on JCI on Monday took out the support at 5089 and this has set the next support line at 5030 and subsequently, 4907.60. Resistance will be at 5174.67 and 5251.3. As U.S. market was closed on Monday, the JCI is likely to fluctuate between 5050-5100 with an outer band between 5030 and 5175. With the MACD now slipped to negative, the bears are holding the advantage.
  • US market will return this Tuesday with the consumer confidence data for May. The reading is seen at 71, better than earlier month when it was 68.1. Still, this week's string of economic data is seen moderate with the U.S. GDP to be released on Thursday and personal income and consumption on Friday along with the University of Michigan confidence index.
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Jumat, 24 Mei 2013

Morning Dew - 27 May 2013

Key Points
  • JCI barely able to hold on to its gains last week. The index managed to score a new peak at 5251.3 but tumbled afterwards on Thursday to as low as 5089 before it settled the week at 5155.09. LQ-45 and IDX30 indexes were not as fortunate as their gains all but lost as the two ended down by 0.04% and 0.19%, respectively. Three supports will be key for JCI in the coming week: 5089, 5030, and 4907.60. Resistance lies at 5174.67 and then 5251.3. Technically speaking, the rally stays alive, but the price is likely to consolidate.
  • Ben Bernanke's speech last week might have been a game changer after all. The Fed chairman suggested that while taking away the entire stimulus from the economy may not be a good idea, scaling it down a bit may do the trick, on the condition that the unemployment rate and the inflation data are supporting the case. This statement was taken negatively as global stocks went on massive retreat on Thursday.
  • Another slap in the face last week came from China as the country's PMI index for manufacturing sector fell below 50, worse than what the market had expected and this suggested that manufacturing had contracted in May. The official data will be released the coming week. So far, global growth has been seen coming from China as well as a product of the Fed's generous stimulus. Taking these away from the equation can only mean more downside for equities.
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Kamis, 23 Mei 2013

Morning Dew - 24 May 2013

Key Points
  • Bernanke's remarks on possible scaling down of Fed's asset purchases coupled with the sinking of China's manufacturing PMI towards the contraction zone sent the bulls ran for cover. JCI tumbled over 100 points before it settled at 5121.4, down 1.66% while the regionals also crumbled as Nikkei sank over 1000 points and the Hang Seng index plunged over 500 points. Within the next three months the market will watch the U.S. data closely, especially the labor market data as well as inflation. Low inflation rate may preserve the current Fed policy, but sharp uptick could mean a scaling down of asset purchases. Similarly, a scale down of asset purchases will be increasingly possible if the employment outlook in the U.S. improves.
  • JCI technical outlook for Friday suggests that the correction had almost reached its maximum retracement point at 5082. Further decline may send the index towards 5030 which will mean that the correction will be deeper than initially expected. However at the moment the index is expected to rebound from Thursday's low with the resistances come in at 5127, 5151 and 5170. MACD is starting to decline, so the upside will be somewhat limited. Friday's range is seen around 5151 and 5082.
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Rabu, 22 Mei 2013

Morning Dew - 23 May 2013

Key Points
  • Ben Bernanke in his testimony before the Congress said that premature monetary tightening may endanger the recovery of U.S. economy as high unemployment rate persists, accompanied by government spending cuts. Still, the Fed's boss took away some of the positivity of his statement by saying that the Fed could 'step down' the pace of its asset purchasing program should the labor market starts to show sustainable improvements. More specifically, the Fed expects to maintain its current policy until the jobless rate reaches 6.5% or inflation pops above 2.5%. In addition, New York Fed President William C. Dudley indicated that the Fed will wait three to four months before the FOMC votes whether the economy is good enough to endure a stimulus reduction.
  • JCI ended higher on Wednesday at 5208 after failed setting another record high. Resistances stay at 5284, 5300 and 5367 while interim support comes in 5161 before the next ones at 5142 and 5116. Bernanke's speech sent the U.S. stocks into the red and this will also bring negative impact on JCI during the coming session. Look for JCI to gyrate around 5116 and 5251 for Thursday.
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Selasa, 21 Mei 2013

Morning Dew - 22 May 2013

Key Points
  • JCI advanced slightly higher to hit 5251.30 before it dipped to retrace 50% at 5163 and eventually settled at 5188.76. Next line of resistance lies at 5284, followed by 5300 and 5367 while the downside support will be once more provided by 5163, and afterwards by 5142 and 5116.
  • U.S. stocks resumed its rise as St. Louis Fed President James Bullard hinted that the Fed should continue its bond purchases to support the U.S. economy. Bullard is one of the FOMC members with a voting right this year. Elsewhere, the Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will deliver his testimony tomorrow before the Congress, while William C. Dudley who leads the Fed Bank of NY stated on Tuesday that he has not decided whether the Fed should increase or decrease its bond purchases program.
  • After a dip on Tuesday, JCI is seen rebounding on Wednesday with another positive round by the Dow overnight. Bullard's statement eased some doubts over the continuity of Fed's bond purchasing program, but the market will await Wednesday's Bernanke testimony before the Congress although nothing new is expected from him.
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Senin, 20 Mei 2013

Morning Dew - 21 May 2013

Key Points
  • JCI hit the target at 5238-5242 as the index resumed its rally alongside bullish regionals. Fueled by gains in US indexes along with the expectation of prolonged accomodative monetary policy from central banks, the JCI is now aiming at the next objective at 5284, 5300 and 5367. Corrective downtick is possible but should be limited to around 5179-5204.
  • BSDE found its entry level and now listed as active recommendation. It settled the day 1.62% lower than the entry point. TELE remains the best performer among the 10 stocks recommended while KBLI stays underwater at the moment.
  • US stocks took some breather after some comment from Fed officials cast some doubts over how long the Fed will maintain its easy monetary policy. Nevertheless, it will be a perfect trigger for correction on JCI after the index met its projection target at 5242. Upside potential remains alive despite risk of dip on Tuesday's session.
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Sabtu, 18 Mei 2013

Morning Dew - 20 May 2013

Key Points
  • Another week another new heights for JCI. The index soared to hit 5162 on Friday before settling at 5145. Hence, the index achieved its resistance at 5158, setting a path towards the next resistance at 5238-5242. On the support side, the index is expected to be well supported by 5030 at the moment, with nearest support at 5115 and a more critical support at 4907. Negative catalysts remain the fuel price hike planned by the government and the related credit rating outlook by S&P and Moody's. For now, the outlook remains positive for the coming week.
  • Better-than-expected consumer confidence and leading indicators released on Friday had put another strength on the Dow's rally. For a whole week, the Dow already gained 1.56% while the S&P 500 gained 2% while the NASDAQ composite added 1.8%. European indexes also gained around 1.4% last week as global stocks buoyed by prolonged accomodative monetary policies by central banks.
  • BSDE has been added to the reco list. Entry area between 1800-1850, with stop set below 1650. Targets include 1920, 2000, and 2300. For longer-term it targets 2700.
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Rabu, 15 Mei 2013

Morning Dew - 16 May 2013

Key Points
  • JCI edged slightly higher to finish the day at 5089.88. The attempt to break through the resistance at 5115 was thwarted for now although this will remain as the first hurdle to take on Thursday. Next to the upcoming resistance at 5115 are 5158 and 5238-5242 while support comes at 5030 first, followed by 5012, 4987 and 4957.
  • Despite poor economic releases on Wednesday, U.S. stocks continue to surge higher. Timid inflation and soft global economic outlook are seen reinforcing the case for prolonged period of accomodative policy among key economies. The Dow continued to move into uncharted territories along with the S&P index.
  • No change in view as the JCI is seen tilted to the upside again on Thursday. Domestic catalysts may present risk  but support from global sentiment should keep the downside limited for now. 
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Selasa, 14 Mei 2013

Morning Dew - 15 May 2013

Key Points
  • JCI rebounded after recent fall and rose 0.54% to end the day at 5081.94. Next resistance comes at 5115, followed by 5242 upon successful breakout. Support lies at Tuesday's low at 5037.41, followed by 5012, 4987 and 4957. 
  • AKRA's reco is filled at 5350. The stop is set below 4850, while the objectives are 5550, 5650, and 5950.
  • Optimism continued to push the U.S. stocks deeper into the uncharted territories as the Dow finished the day at 15215.20 and the S&P 500 index at 1650.34. Prolonged period of accomodative monetary policy has been supporting stocks so far and this is expected to continue for some time.
  • While the domestic catalysts of potential fuel price hike and the risk of rating downgrade remain in play, both have been kept at bay for now. Nonetheless, should Dow rally starts to see some exhaustion, profit taking can start to kick in again. Wednesday is still expected to be positive for now for JCI.
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Senin, 13 Mei 2013

Morning Dew - 14 May 2013

Key Points
  • Profit-taking set in at the start of the week as the JCI tumbled 1% to end at 5054.63. Foreign transactions netted a sell of Rp491.47b as 202 stock ended in the red. Just 90 managed to stay positive while the other 97 stocks ended flat. Previously, JCI managed to reach its Fibo projection target at 5114 last week, and Monday's fall has met the 38.2% retracement level. Next support comes in 5012, followed by 4987 and 4957. Resistance lies at 5115, the prior peak, followed by 5242 upon successful breakout.
  • U.S. stocks took a pause on Monday even after a better-than-expected retail sales figure. April saw a slim increase of 0.1% in retail sales after 0.5% drop in March, beating the consensus of a 0.3% slip forecast earlier.
  • Earlier in Asia, China released a string of economic data which showed fixed asset investment slowed a bit from 20.9% to 20.6% in April, while industrial production accelerated from 8.9% to 9.3% in April. Retail sales however, were up 12.8%, faster than the prior 12.6% increase in March.
  • AKRA is added to the reco list. Entry point around 5250-5350, stop below 4850 while the objectives are 5550, 5650, and 5950.
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Minggu, 12 Mei 2013

Morning Dew - 13 May 2013

Key Points
  • JCI has been largely unfazed by the rating downgrade by S&P and the warning issued by Moody's over its fuel policy. The index continued to rally higher and reached 5115 last week, just above its 5114 Fibo projection target. This opens up the potential for the next climb to 5242 the coming week. Support now comes at 5062, prior resistance-turned-support and the key 5000. While volume has not seen new peak, MACD has popped to the positive territory which is a positive sign for the index. The coming week is still seen positive for JCI.
  • After a quiet week on the economic data front, the coming week will be somewhat eventful. U.S. Inflation will be released, along with several consumer-based data. University of Michigan sentiment and retail sales are scheduled for release while other data include housing index as well as industrial production and capacity utilization.
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Rabu, 08 Mei 2013

Morning Dew - 9 May 2013

Key Points
  • JCI set another record high at 5089.34 as it nears its Fibo projection objective at 5114. Beyond this target lies the more ambitious objective: 5242. At the moment, negative catalysts coming from rating agencies and slowing economic growth seem powerless to stop the rally. Still, investors should remain cautious as risk of corrective pullback will also increase the higher the index goes. Critical supports remain seen at 4907 and 4856.
  • China trade data added fuel to the Wednesday rally as exports were reportedly up 14.7% in April from a year ago. Imports however, were up 16.8% from prior year. Both were improving from last month's gains in exports of 10% and imports of 14.1%. There's a concern however, that the data might be inflated by companies to avoid capital controls and bring money into China.
  • Domestic market will be closed on Thursday but will resume on Friday. Hence, the cue for Friday's market will lie on how the overseas markets fare on Thursday. So far, the Dow continues unchallenged as it managed to clear the resistance at 15k. Light economic data will support the rally but the bulls should remain cautious of sudden pullbacks should profit-taking starts to kick in.
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Selasa, 07 Mei 2013

Morning Dew - 8 May 2013

Key Points
  • Another strong rally took JCI just below its record high at 5062.67. A successful push above this all-time high will open up a prospect for the index to reach its next objective at 5114 and should it extend more: 5242. Support is seen crucial at 4907 as well as 4856. As the Dow also pushed above 15k mark, this holiday-shortened week looks set to end on a high note for the JCI.
  • Domestic matters may weigh against the JCI especially after the S&P cut Indonesia's credit outlook to stable from positive and after Moody's issued a warning that fuel policy may hurt the economy and thus indirectly suggesting that the credit rating outlook may also be at risk. Slowdown in GDP is also a negative for JCI.
  • Positive factors came from abroad as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) joined the European Central Bank on cutting rates. RBA set the rate to a record low of 2.75%. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve maintained its bond-purchasing program at $85b each month while Bank of Japan aims at reaching inflation target at 2% by adding stepping up its stimulus program. Elsewhere, the Bank of England will meet this week but it is expected to hold rates and its stimulus program intact. Another plus factor came from last week's nonfarm payrolls which beat the consensus and better-than-expected earnings in the U.S. as earnings season continues to wind down.
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Senin, 06 Mei 2013

Morning Dew - 7 May 2013

Key Points
  • JCI staged an impressive rebound at the start of the week. Still, the index remained blow the 5,000 mark while the upside is going to meet resistances at 5009, 5019,5028 and 5036 as well as 0.5046. On the other hand, support is expected to come by 4962 and 4856.
  • Moody's warned Indonesia on its fuel subsidy policy and its impact on the economy. The rating agency maintained its stable outlook and Baa3 rating, however. Last week's S&P downgrate of outlook to stable from positive had brought negative impact on sentiment and Moody's warning had been probably partially priced in. 
  • Another disappointing report was the slowing down of GDP during the first quarter 2013. GDP only increased 6.02% from a year ago, slowing down from 6.11% reported in 4Q12 and trailing the median 6.1% forecast by analysts. Curbed exports and slower government spending were behind the slowdown.
  • Global indices took a pause after a strong rally last Friday, while Asian stocks got mixed. Strong payrolls report as well as ECB monetary easing became positive catalysts for the market. Lack of data this week could spark a profit-taking but pullbacks are seen limited so far. Tuesday is expected to be range-bound.
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Minggu, 05 Mei 2013

Morning Dew - 6 May 2013

Key Points
  • S&P’s downgrade on Indonesia’s rating outlook has played its part on pulling the rug off JCI’s feet last week and this may continue to resonate negatively throughout the coming week despite better-than-expected U.S. nonfarm payrolls data. 
  • Technically speaking, JCI only staged a shallow rebound, just shy below its first Fibo retracement level at 5009. The index fell hard and it hit the low at 4907, piercing the support at 4962. While this could be a sign of another visit towards the support at 4856 the upcoming week, a better-than-expected U.S. nonfarm payrolls managed to fuel the Dow to hit the key 15k mark.
  • U.S. jobs gained 165k in the month of April while the jobless rate fell to 7.5% from 7.6%. Private payrolls added 176k which means the government sector shed jobs. The April figure beat the market consensus and thus sent the Dow to hit the 15k mark.
  • Lack of key data the coming week may risk the Dow to pull back as profit-taking kicks in. In turn, this will also influence the market sentiment in both Asia and Europe, making them prone to corrective pullback. Earnings season also nearing its end in the U.S.
  • Updating the recos list, the recent week saw four recos exited the recos list: BBNI and PTPP with gains while KPIG and PNBN with losses. PTPP gained 64.71% and BBNI 49.66%; KPIG lost 10.88% and PNBN lost 9.41%.
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Kamis, 02 Mei 2013

Morning Dew - 3 May 2013

Key Points
  • JCI tumbled below the 5k mark again as sentiment was hit by slip-up of the DJIA overnight. As the 5k mark got broken again, the next support is seen at 4962 and afterwards at 4856. The upside is seeing Fibo-based resistances at 5009,5019, 5028, 5036 and 5046.
  • The Thursday's rout took its toll as PNBN dragged down to hit its stop level below 780, thereby forced it to settle at 9.41% losses. Among 9 recos remaining, APLN has returned to neutral while TELE, MPPA and RALS are struggling to hold their gains. KPIG has the worst performance, followed by KBLI, BKSL, BIPI and IMAS.
  • ECB rate cut and better-than-expected jobless claims data put the bulls back on the lead as the Dow jumped 0.89% while the S&P and NASDAQ also gained 0.94% and 1.26%, respectively. The positive end of the European and American sessions are poised to set up a rebound for the JCI on Friday. Nonfarm payrolls data later in the NY session may risk another dip as payrolls growth may be subdued in April.
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Rabu, 01 Mei 2013

Morning Dew - 2 May 2013

Key Points
  • A follow-up surge by JCI put the index close to its projection target at 5068. Ending at 5060.92 after briefly touched 5062.67 the index is expected to be well-supported above the 5k mark. Nevertheless, key supports still lie at 4962 and 4856 while the upside is seen capped around 5068. Should the index powers through this resistance as well, resistances are seen at 5121-5133, followed by 5239 and 5284.
  • After PTPP exited at its objective, now it's BBNI's turn to exit at its final target at 5500, which brought the reco a 49.66% gains. Among the remaining recos, MPPA holds the best temporary gains of 9.44% while KPIG and PNBN are still below water with 7.48% and 7.06% losses, respectively.
  • Fed kept its policy unchanged while the ADP employment report however, showed that April saw a smallest increase in private payrolls as the 119k increase trailed the consensus of an expected 150k rise. The figure also less than the prior month's 131k gain. Weak private payrolls suggests that Friday's non-farm payrolls may also trail the market's expectations.
  • Weak U.S. Data and falling Dow suggest that the JCI may be on the defensive on Thursday's session.
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