Morning Dew - October 31st 2013

Key Points

Doldrums

• Market continues to move back and forth between gains and losses as fresh catalysts remain absent. At the moment the gains and losses hinge on the Fed speculation over tapering and the impacts from releases of several not-so-significant-data.
• U.S. stocks slipped as the FOMC delivered its decision to keep the stimulus amount intact after a 2-day meeting as widely expected.
• Domestically, earnings season will be stealing the market attention in the absence of key global issues and data.

Sales and Confidence Slipped

• Private sector hiring slowed in October to 130k compared to September 145k and below the consensus of 150k.
• Consumer Price Index accelerated to 0.2% in September faster than 0.1% seen in August, an in line with consensus. Ex-food and energy, the inflation stays at 0.1%, less than the expected 0.2%. 

Technically Speaking...

• JCI remained subdued as there has been lack of significant catalysts around. The index however, resilient above its daily and weekly EMA bands.
• Recent high at 4,611 will act as near-term resistance, followed by 4,791 and 4,900 while the nearest support will be at the upper end of the EMA band at 4,530, followed by recent low at 4,499. 
• Daily indicators hinted at exhaustion as volume slipped along with declining MACD and RSI, but as the index stays above the EMA band, the outlook stays positive.
• No changes in the pool of recommendations for now. All are on hold.

Day Ahead

The doldrums set to continue after the Fed meeting passed with no big surprise. Jobless claims data will be released this Thursday, but expect minor impact from the data. Market’s attention will be more focused on the domestic earnings released.

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Morning Dew - October 30th 2013

Key Points

Doldrums

• Market continues to move back and forth between gains and losses as fresh catalysts remain absent. At the moment the gains and losses hinge on the Fed speculation over tapering and the impacts from releases of several not-so-significant-data.
• Domestically, earnings season will be stealing the market attention in the absence of key global issues and data.
• APII jumped on its debut at the IDX on Tuesday. The distributor of valves and other industrial items is a subsidiary of Unimech Group, a Malaysian company, is the 26th addition to the listed company at the IDX this year. 

Sales and Confidence Slipped

• US retail sales fell 0.1% in October, while US consumers were less confident in October due to budget dispute.
• Consumer confidence fell from 80.2 to 71.2 in October, way below the consensus  of 75.0.

Technically Speaking...

• JCI remained subdued as there has been lack of significant catalysts around. The index however, resilient above its daily and weekly EMA bands.
• Recent high at 4,611 will act as near-term resistance, followed by 4,791 and 4,900 while the nearest support will be at the upper end of the EMA band at 4,550, followed by recent low at 4,499. 
• Daily indicators hinted at exhaustion as volume slipped along with declining MACD and RSI. On the weekly basis however, the volume has started to tick up, while MACD’s ascend accelerated. Overall, the outlook for the coming week is cautiously positive.
• No changes in the pool of recommendations for now. All are on hold.

Day Ahead

ADP employment data and Consumer Price Index are to feature in Wednesday’s economic data slated for release. Private sector hiring is seen declining in October to 148k from 166k a month earlier. Meanwhile, CPI are expected to have grown 0.2% in September, but as the inflation stays subdued, the data is likely to be a non-event. The Fed is also going to conclude its policy meeting but no change is expected. 

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Morning Dew - October 29th 2013

Key Points

Doldrums

• Market continues to move back and forth between gains and losses as fresh catalysts remain absent. At the moment the gains and losses hinge on the Fed speculation over tapering and the impacts from releases of several not-so-significant-data.
• Domestically, earnings season will be stealing the market attention in the absence of key global issues and data.

Mixed Picture

• Industrial production rose 0.6% MoM in September, beating the consensus of 0.4% gains while capacity utilization was reported at 78.3%, best since July 2008 and exceeded forecasts of 78%.
• US pending home sales slumped 5.6% in September however, the lowest since December, trailing consensus of 0.5% increase.
• US Federal Reserve is also bound to conclude its meeting on Wednesday. No change is expected.

Technically Speaking...

• JCI remained subdued as there has been lack of significant catalysts around. The index however, resilient above its daily and weekly EMA bands.
• Recent high at 4,611 will act as near-term resistance, followed by 4,791 and 4,900 while the nearest support will be at the upper end of the EMA band at 4,550, followed by recent low at 4,499. 
• Daily indicators hinted at exhaustion as volume slipped along with declining MACD and RSI. On the weekly basis however, the volume has started to tick up, while MACD’s ascend accelerated. Overall, the outlook for the coming week is cautiously positive.
• No changes in the pool of recommendations for now. All are on hold.

Day Ahead

Mixed US data continued to suppress the odds that the FOMC will deliver something new this mid-week at the end of the Fed’s regular meeting. US Producer Price Index will feature in Tuesday’s session in New York alongside retail sales figure. Sales data expected to see no change in September, but ex-auto and gas the data is seen to have gained 0.4%.

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Morning Dew - October 28th 2013

Key Points

Doldrums

• Market continues to move back and forth between gains and losses as fresh catalysts remain absent. At the moment the gains and losses hinge on the Fed speculation over tapering and the impacts from releases of several not-so-significant-data.
• Domestically, earnings season will be stealing the market attention in the absence of key global issues and data.

Confidence Slipped in October

• Consumer confidence fell in October from 77.5 to 73.2, a 10-month low, below the consensus of 75 and lower than its preliminary reading of 75.2.
• US durable goods orders climbed 3.7% in September, beating the consensus of a 2.3% rise and way faster than prior month’s slight gains of 0.2%. Excluding transportation items however, the orders fell 0.1%, better than prior period’s decline of 0.4% but sharply below the expected rise of 0.5%.

Technically Speaking...

• Despite declining on Friday, JCI managed to eke out an 0.8% gains throughout the week. The index however, remains resilient above its daily and weekly EMA bands.
• Recent high at 4,609 will act as near-term resistance, followed by 4,791 and 4,900 while the nearest support will be at the upper end of the EMA band at 4,550, followed by recent low at 4,499. 
• Daily indicators hinted at exhaustion as volume slipped along with declining MACD and RSI. On the weekly basis however, the volume has started to tick up, while MACD’s ascend accelerated. Overall, the outlook for the coming week is cautiously positive.
• No changes in the pool of recommendations for now. All are on hold.

Week Ahead

Falling consumer confidence added more relief on the investors’ mind that the Fed will not taper the stimulus soon. Technically, JCI remains positive, but as positive catalysts look limited, the climb will be a grind rather than a rally. Earnings season domestic and overseas will also continue to feature in the coming week.

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Morning Dew - October 25th 2013

Key Points

Doldrums

• Market continues to move back and forth between gains and losses as fresh catalysts remain absent. At the moment the gains and losses hinge on the Fed speculation over tapering and the impacts from releases of several not-so-significant-data.
• Domestically, earnings season will be stealing the market attention in the absence of key global issues and data.

Manufacturing Slowed

• US jobless claims came in more than expected at 350k for the week ending Oct 18, while the prior week reading has been revised down to 362k.
• US Preliminary PMI for October was down from 52.8 to 51.1, below consensus of 52.5, contrasting to China’s piece that came in at 50.9, better than the expected 50.4 and up from 50.2.
• Friday will see the US durable goods data for September released. Consensus sees 2% increase after a small 0.1% gains in prior month.

Technically Speaking...

• There is no change in view as the index remains stuck near its EMA support around 4,550.
• Prior high at 4,609 will act as near-term resistance, followed by 4,791 and 4,900 while the nearest support will be at the upper end of the EMA band at 4,550.
• MACD has started to edge higher again, while volume ticked up. Still no significant signal coming from RSI. 
• No changes in the pool of recommendations for now. All are on hold.

Day Ahead

As the market is running out of major catalysts, the sessions ahead will be more likely going sideways. US earnings season continues to be around along with speculation over the start of Fed’s tapering.

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Morning Dew - October 24th 2013

Key Points

Doldrums

• JCI bounced back after it got under fire a day earlier. The bounce could be a part of a large consolidation currently happening as the market is waiting for the next big things such as the FOMC decision, and more rounds of of economic data.
• Next incoming data are from the housing market and the job market. US New Home Sales were expected to gain 1% in September from prior month, compared to MoM jump of 7.9% recorded in August. US jobless claims data is also set for release on Thursday.
• Beyond Thursday, Friday will feature durable goods orders, as well the U. of Michigan confidence index.

UNVR Not Going Private

• UNVR soared to reach as high as 37,350 on Wednesday after a rumor about the company planning to go private hit the market.
• The company clarified the matter as it stated that it is its subsidiary company, Unilever Body Care which was previously listed (PROD) which is going to go private.
• At the end of the day, UNVR settled at 31,700, trimmed its gains to just 2.92%.

Technically Speaking...

• JCI made another push above its EMA resistance and managed to hit 4,609  only to get pushed back to end at 4,546. The candle pattern shows exhaustion and it risks for another attempt to go down. 
• Prior high at 4,609 will act as near-term resistance, followed by 4,791 and 4,900 while the nearest support will be at the upper end of the EMA band at 4,530.
• Indicators show no new hints at the moment. 
• No changes in the pool of recommendations for now. All are on hold.

Day Ahead

As the market is running out of major catalysts, the sessions ahead will be more likely going sideways. US earnings season continues to be around along with speculation over the start of Fed’s tapering.

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Morning Dew - October 23rd 2013

Key Points

Short on Expectations

• Payrolls came short of expectations in September. After an August gains of 193k, September saw only 148k gains in payrolls. Unemployment rate was at 7.2%, which is best reading since November 2008. Payrolls number trailed the consensus of 180k.
• Less than expected payrolls number turned out to be supporting stocks as the Federal Reserve will have to wait for firmer string of data. 
• The next release of payrolls data has been pushed back to Nov 8 from the originally scheduled Nov 1 as a result of recent shutdown. Meanwhile, the FOMC will hold its meeting on Oct 29-30, but the market is now factoring in Fed’s tapering to start on March 18-19 next year instead.

US Earnings Update

• So far, 138 companies have reported an average growth of 5.5% in earnings while sales have been reported growing by 2.3%.
• Of these companies, 72% managed to beat consensus  in terms of profit while 54% have beaten sales estimates.
• While the Dow claws its way up, the wider S&P 500 index is closing in to its best annual gain in a decade to 1,754.67 (+0.6%).

Technically Speaking...

• JCI slipped back to end inside the EMA band on Tuesday, hitting the intraday low at 4,499.  The index was nowhere near its Monday’s high at 4,585, hence putting its move towards 4,791 (Sept. high) en route to 4,900 on hold for now.
• Prior high at 4,585 remains as resistance, followed by 4,791 and 4,900 while the nearest support will be at the lower end of the EMA band at 4,444.
• Indicators took a u-turn as volume slipped, MACD ticked down while RSI turned lower after it approached 70% area earlier, the area considered to be overbought. 
• ADHI and ROTI were filled, which means now there are seven active recos.

Day Ahead

Less impressive NFP figure turned to be a positive catalyst as the FOMC will have to wait for more convincing string of jobs data before considering to start removing its stimulus. JCI is expected to bounce off its yesterday’s low this Wednesday. 

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Morning Dew - October 22nd 2013

Key Points

Eyes on Payrolls

• The next big thing in the market will be the release of the delayed non-farm payrolls data. No distorted data is expected for the September period, but the October data also set to be released soon will be distorted by the effects of US government shutdown.
• September payrolls data is expected to show an addition of 180k workers during that period, compared to 169k added in August. 
• Late receipts of key data are seen holding the Federal Reserve back on their anticipated tapering of stimulus. A move in October is now highly unlikely as the Fed will not want to decide over a distorted data set. If it’s three months of normal data to be based on, it points at February, but budget fight will be replayed by that time so it looks like no tapering to happen this year. More likely will be a quarter or two after Janet Yellen succeeds Ben Bernanke as the Fed chief. 

US Earnings Season

• Profits are forecast to increase on an average of 2.5% for all companies in the S&P 500, up from 1.7% gains expected earlier this month.
• So far, for 108 companies that have reported their earnings, the average gains in earnings is 4.5% while sales at 2.1%.
• From these 108 companies, 70% managed to beat profit forecasts while 54% have exceeded sales expectations.

Technically Speaking...

• JCI continued to march above its 100-and-200-day-EMA as it aims towards 4,900. Before that however, the index is about to face its prior high resistance at 4,791 (Sept 19th).
• Prior EMA resistance has now turned as support and so the nearest support will be at 4,520, followed by the lower end of the EMA band at 4,444.
• Positive outlook maintained by the indicators as volume continued to rise, MACD still ticked up while RSI has been flattening as it approaches 70%, the area considered to be overbought. 
• ADHI and ROTI are still waiting on the sidelines for their fillings.

Day Ahead

Simply all about fundamentals and earnings, with a little bit of Fed’s guessing game. Fundamentals on the release of nonfarm payrolls data, and earnings releases from S&P 500 companies in the U.S.

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Morning Dew - October 21st 2013

Key Points

The Guessing Game

• As the political drama in Washington came to an end, attention will be shifted towards the guessing game over when the Federal Reserve will start tapering the monetary stimulus.
• Another issue to face will be the earnings season in the US and some domestically. As earnings mostly concern with individual corporate performances, the impact will be most likely limited.
• FOMC’s move in October is rather unlikely at the moment. That is, if they stick to their own words that their decision will be data-dependent. So far, September payroll data has yet to be released while October data is bound to get distorted by the impact of shutdown. A move in December may also be too close to the end of Bernanke’s terms at the Fed whereas January and February may be too close to another budget fight. This situation will keep investors guessing for when the tapering will start.

China’s 3Q Growth Rebounded

• 3Q13 GDP grew 7.8% vs. 3Q12 after hitting 7.5% in 2Q13, in line with consensus.
• Growth may owe itself to boost in government spending as consistency is questioned.
• Retail sales grew faster in September at 13.3% (YoY) vs. 13.4% in August, industrial production also slowed from 10.4% in August (YoY) to 10.2%. 

Technically Speaking...

• JCI managed to end the week above its key EMA resistance, hence the outlook brightened as a move towards 4,900 is expected. Before that however, the index is about to face its prior high resistance at 4,791 (Sept 19th).
• Prior EMA resistance has now turned as support and so the nearest support will be at 4,520, followed by the lower end of the EMA band at 4,444.
• Friday’s rise was accompanied by rising volume as well as MACD inching higher. RSI has climbed pretty fast approaching 70%. Overall, the outlook based on these indicators has once again turned positive.
• ADHI and ROTI have been added to the pool of recommended trades. Please see the table below for the details of the setups.

Week Ahead

As the dust from budget impasse has been cleared, the market will be re-focusing itself towards fundamentals and the Fed. Earnings season in the U.S. will influence individual stocks. Domestically, some companies will start reporting as well. One of high profile releases next week will be the delayed nonfarm payrolls which is due in Tuesday. Monday however, US existing home sales for September is set for release.

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Morning Dew - October 18th 2013

Key Points

Business, as Usual

• US borrowing authority is extended until Feb 7th. Until then, the Treasury Dept. will keep using its ‘extraordinary measures’ to avoid default should the Congress does not raise the debt ceiling by that date.
• Federal spending at current levels are set to be extended until Jan 15th. Sequestration / across-the-board cuts are maintained.
• House-Senate panel to be formed to try reducing long-term-deficit that could be approved by the full Congress. The panel will have to complete this by Dec 13th. Given the great divide between House and Senate, such result is bound to be elusive.
• Measures to attempt to prevent federal subsidies from being paid are established. The targets are the people whose incomes are eligible.
• Furloughed federal workers’ wages during the shutdown will be receiving back pay.

Earnings and the Fed

• As the political drama came to an end (for now), the market will shift its attention back to the Federal Reserve as well as the ongoing earnings season.
• Dow’s weakness came as Goldman Sachs and IBM delivered results which came in below the expectations.  On the contrary,  S&P index surged to record highs.
• Debt impasse is seen to put Fed’s tapering on hold.

Technically Speaking...

• JCI is still struggling to break through the EMA resistance at around 4,530. Despite it managed to set an intraday high at 4,550.54 during the Thursday session, the gains failed to hold and it trimmed its gains to settle at 4,518.93. A successful break however, will open up a way towards 4,900 price objective.
• Support is nearest at 4,425, around the 50-day EMA, followed by 4,357/58 (double-bottom support) and a more crucial one at 4,313/14 (double-bottom). If we sink below 4,313/14, we risk another bearish round towards 4,207.
• Resistance will be at 4,550 (Thursday high), followed by 4,792 (Sept high). Beyond the latter we may see 4,900.
• Dow might be weak, but S&P index has scored another record high. It is likely that the index will attempt once more in breaking through the resistances and reaches its price objective at 4,900.
• MDLN also managed to meet its price objective at 850. The reco has been removed from the pool with gains of 25% (see the table below for details).

Day Ahead

As the shutdown issue has been set aside for now, the market will return to fundamentals and earnings. JCI is seen mixed with positive bias. Last day of the week may cap volume.

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Morning Dew - October 17th 2013

Key Points

Fiscal Impasse Set to End

• US House of Representatives will vote a deal later which according to House Speaker John Boehner will not be blocked by Republicans.
• Government will be funded through Jan. 15th 2014 while the debt limit will be suspended until Feb. 7th, when another bout of confrontation awaits.
• Fitch Ratings recently put US AAA credit grade on the negative watch while according to Standard & Poor’s the 16-day shutdown cost the economy $24 billion.
• The deal is not the end of the problem, but simply moving the problem for another four months. It’s simply ‘kicking the can down the road one more time’.

Points from Fed Beige Book

• Four districts had slower growth , while eight  saw steady expansion amid fiscal deadlock.
• Growth remained ‘modest to moderate’ with consumer spending continued to gain and business investment  continued to grow.
• Employment growth ‘stayed modest’ in September while price and wage pressures ‘stayed limited’.  Uncertainties were spotted due to shutdown, but generally retailers stayed optimistic about the holiday shopping season.

Technically Speaking...

• JCI is still struggling to break through the EMA resistance at around 4,530. A successful break will open up a way towards 4,900 price objective.
• Both MACD and RSI are showing signs of turnaround, but still need a stronger push to secure a bullish potential. Despite sluggish advance on the price side, volume has been rising steadily.
• Support is nearest at 4,425, around the 50-day EMA, followed by 4,357/58 (double-bottom support) and a more crucial one at 4,313/14 (double-bottom). If we sink below 4,313/14, we risk another bearish round towards 4,207.
• Resistance will be at 4,543 (pre-holiday high), followed by 4,792 (Sept high). Beyond the latter we may see 4,900.
• A rally in the DJIA overnight is seen boosting the JCI on Thursday. It is likely that the index will break through the resistances and reaches its price objective at 4,900.
• LCGP met its price objective and has been removed from the recommendation pool (see table below) while MDLN is very close to finish line.

Day Ahead

As the Republicans conceded, the budget issue in Washington is over for now. This will resurface in about four months time and will repeat the whole political drama once more. For now, the market cheers the deal and JCI should be joining the party as well.

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Morning Dew - 15 October 2013

Key Points

DEAL or NO DEAL?

• US lawmakers failed to reach a deal on the borrowing limit as Oct. 17th deadline looms large. Previously, a deal was being worked on which will suspend the debt limit through Feb 7th, 2014. The government will be funded through Jan 15th while setting up House-Senate budget conference by Dec 13th.
• While there is some time left, should everything else still fails, the government will be out of cash by Oct 17th, start to miss payments between Oct 22nd and Oct 31st, something that will crush the integrity of US as well as the dollar.
• One of the proposed points was the reinsurance fees. The fees worth $63 per worker on health plans scheduled for next year will be postponed as requested by labor unions.

China’s Data Due

• Third Quarter GDP data will be released this Friday, with YoY growth seen at 7.8% in 3Q13, up from 7.5%. From prior quarter, GDP is seen up 2.1%, compared to 1.7% recorded in prior quarter.
• Industrial production growth is seen slowing to 10.2% in September after a 10.4% increase in prior month.
• Retail sales is also expected to improve to 13.5% from 13.4% in September.

Technically Speaking...

• JCI is still struggling to break through the EMA resistance at around 4,530. A successful break will open up a way towards 4,900 price objective.
• Both MACD and RSI are showing signs of turnaround, but still need a stronger push to secure a bullish potential. Despite sluggish advance on the price side, volume has been rising steadily.
• Support is nearest at 4,425, around the 50-day EMA, followed by 4,357/58 (double-bottom support) and a more crucial one at 4,313/14 (double-bottom). If we sink below 4,313/14, we risk another bearish round towards 4,207.
• Resistance will be at 4,543 (pre-holiday high), followed by 4,792 (Sept high). Beyond the latter we may see 4,900.
• The fall in DJIA overnight suggests that we’re tilted towards the downside, somehow confirming the exhaustion pattern on the JCI’s daily chart.

Day Ahead

The failure to reach an agreement in Washington is seen as negative on Asian markets. Stocks are expected to slip back, but any signs of an agreement is to be reached could turn the stocks back up. JCI is cautiously bearish for this Wednesday.

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Morning Dew - 11 October 2013

Key Points

• Budget deal hopes sent the JCI higher on Thursday after Obama said that he would accept a short-term increase in the debt limit with no policy conditions as well as negotiating on broader fiscal and health care policy after the ceiling is raised and the shutdown ends. JCI gained 0.66% on the news, but this may prove short-lived if no definite deal is agreed. As we approach October 17th, the sentiment will deteriorate amid concern over US default risk.
• 100-and-200-day-EMAs at around 4530 continue to show resilience for the JCI to crack, but so far the MACD has started to pick up pace above the zero line, supported by rising volume. RSI too, has started to bounce off the oversold area. Support remains at 4430 (50-day EMA), followed by 4357-4358, and then 4313-4314 ahead of 4207. Beyond 4530 we may see a revisit of 4791 prior high and then the Fibo target around 4900-4915. 
• CLPI had its entry filled at 750, and by the end of the session the reco gained 1.33%. Elsewhere, ARNA, MLPL, AISA and ACES were still stuck in the rut. MDLN, PGAS, and LCGP ended the session on a positive footing.
• US stocks rose as the Dow soared more than 300 points on Thursday. JCI may get some boost for Friday's session from this, but keep in mind that the stock market will have another long weekend so profit taking may keep rally in check.

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Morning Dew - 10 October 2013

Key Points

• JCI scored another gains on Wednesday as BI kept its rates on hold while news that Obama may agree for a short-term debt limit increase without policy conditions also lifted up the mood. The market also cheered the news that Obama will nominate Janet Yellen as Ben Bernanke's successor at the Federal Reserve. In Asia, Nikkei climbed while Hang Seng index slumped. As we approach October 17th the market will gradually drift back to the downside.
• JCI technicals remain positive for now as the index maintained its climb into the EMA band between 4435 to 4515. Near-term, resistance stays at 4515 while support comes in at 4435. Below 4435 we will risk a move back towards the double bottom at 4357-4358 and subsequently, 4313/4314 ahead of 4207. Improving volume as well as MACD turned back to positive are favoring for the upside.
• LCGP, MDLN, and PGAS continue to stay in the green while ARNA, MLPL, AISA and ACES remain stuck in the red. There is no changes in view but added into the pool is CLPI which recently booked a very impressive rally. The stock is favored for buying between 690-750 with the target set at 1000 and stop set below 580.

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Morning Dew - 9 October 2013

Key Points

• JCI gained 1.32% as Bank Indonesia held the interest rate unchanged at 7.25%. Deposit facility rate (FASBI) and the lending facility rates were also held at 5.5% and 7.25%, respectively. On another front, FX reserves gained 3% in September to $96b as BI measures seemed to have paid off to improve the reserves level. From China, HSBC/Markit PMI data for China's service sector saw the gauge fell from 52.8 to 52.4 in September, but it's still holding above the 50, which marks expansion. 
• Technically, JCI managed to pop above its 50-day EMA to hit 4439.72 before it settled the day at 4432.51. However, it remains to be seen whether Tuesday's rally can be sustained on Wednesday. Next resistance lies around 4545 where 100 and 200-day EMA curves intertwine. Support will be 4357 at the nearest and 4313/4314 double bottom afterwards. Falling Dow points at the risk JCI breaking through the downside support this mid-week. If so, the next layer of support will be at 4207.
• Washington remains a major concern for investors around the world as we are approaching Oct 17th when the US will be hitting its debt ceiling and starts to run out money to pay for its obligations. The consequences of such event is dire and this issue will keep regionals as well as JCI's rally in check, at least until the matter is resolved.
• LCGP, MDLN, and PGAS continue to stay in the green while ARNA, MLPL, AISA and ACES remain stuck in the red. There is no changes in view as well as no new entries to the recommendation pool.

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Morning Dew - 8 October 2013

Key Points

• Prolonged budget deadlock in Washington continues to pressure the market sentiment as stocks fell in Asian trading. JCI edged 0.33% lower, while Nikkei and Hang Seng indexes slipped 1.22% and 0.71%, respectively. US now has until October 17th to sort things out or it will hit its debt ceiling and default, something that will create chaos in the global stock market and crush the integrity of the US economy. 
• JCI failed to take on its 50-day EMA resistance at 4426 and fell to as low as 4357.46 before settled the day at 4374.96. While still above its double-bottom support at 4313-14, the continuation of downward pressure will risk this support to be broken and hence will risk the retest of the next support at 4206/07. The RSI had already signalled such risk and the MACD also supports this negative outlook at the moment. Upside, the resistance stays at 4426 first and 4510-4545 next. Unless the US budget impasse ends, the index is likely to stay under pressure.
• US stocks continued to fall on Monday as no budget deal in sight. While budget impasse and showdown have been somewhat tolerable by the market, a US debt default is something beyond expectations. For Tuesday, the market will be setting its attention to Washington.
• LCGP found its footing during the Monday's trade as it edged higher to end at 260. MDLN and PGAS managed to stay positive as well. MLPL worsened however, as it ended the session at 355, while ARNA, AISA, and ACES stayed underwater.

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Morning Dew - 7 October 2013

Key Points

• Stocks retreated this week as the US government shut down after the politicians could not agree on the budget. While this is not the first shutdown in history, the market concerned over the longer-term impact on the economy. On the other hand, the US economy is also facing a growing threat of a debt default because by October 17th the Treasury will be running out of money and that the debt will exceed the $16.7 trillion cap. On Friday, the House speaker John Boehner said that he won't allow the US to default on its debt, lifting stocks as it trimmed earlier losses.
• Nonfarm payrolls data for September has been postponed due to the shutdown. This implies that tapering will be highly unlikely to happen in October. Other than lack of hints from the labor market, the budget disagreement also brings uncertainties for investors. The Federal Reserve is unlikely to be adding such uncertainties through a tapering when the FOMC meets at the end of October.
• There is no change in view on the active recommendations. So far, only MDLN and PGAS are giving positive results. MLPL is the worst performer so far as it trailed 7.59% off its entry point while ACES got down 6.85% at the moment. No new additions of recos for now.
• Technically speaking, the chart outlook for JCI remains worrisome. The index is still hovering below the EMA band while the RSI took a dive on Friday. Support lines lie at 4313, followed by 4207. The latter is a crucial support which if broken can squeeze the index back to 3837. On the upside, the EMA band between 4440 and 4535 are the nearest resistance area while 4791 is the most crucial one.

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Morning Dew - 4 October 2013

Key Points

• Another positive finish by JCI as the index gained 0.71% throughout the Thursday session. Better-than-expected Chinese service PMI has managed to keep the mood positive in Asia despite the US government remains shut down after budget talks failed to reach agreement between the Republicans and the Democrats. Talks remain in progress however, and the longer it takes to yield a deal, the more likely the market sentiment will deteriorate.
• After its manufacturing PMI came in short of expectations, Chinese PMI for the service sector managed to rise to a six-month high, signalling that there are signs of improvements in China after two quarters of contractions. In September, the index registered an uptick to 55.4 from August 53.9. A reading above 50 signifies expansion while below 50 signifies contraction.
• Despite rising, JCI technical outlook still demand caution as the index is yet to break through its resistance area around 4425-4452. Even if it does, lack of positive catalysts may make it difficult to take out its subsequent resistance at 4540. Still, JCI seems to be holding well above its support at 4313. It is expected to stay above this key area throughout Friday as it may attempt to test its resistance at 4425-4452.
• US stocks fell as shutdown remains in force as well as driven by poor economic data. ISM for non-manufacturing fell from 58.6 to 54.4 in September. Hence, despite the sector continued to expand, the pace had slowed more than expected. The market had expected the data at 57.0. Jobless claims also fell as employers anticipated shutdown by keeping their workers. Nonfarm payrolls data which was scheduled for Friday release will be postponed due to government shutdown.

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Morning Dew - 3 October 2013

Key Points

• JCI ended up on Wednesday, as the index found support coming from the September inflation data as well as fading negativity coming out of the first US government shutdown in 17 years. Still, the impact coming out of the shutdown is expected to be somewhat limited, but as the indecision is prolonged, the market sentiment will start to deteriorate again, dragging stocks down.
• ADP data showed that private sector had added 166k jobs in September, compared to a 159k (revised) in August. Still, this figure is still less than what the market had expected. Consensus ran at 180k in September, and this result could mean that the upcoming release of nonfarm payrolls data may not be as strong as expected. Currently, Bloomberg survey points at 160k-235k gains in NFP. Payrolls is one of the crucial data being watched by the Federal Reserve. A less than stellar strings of NFP could mean the FOMC may need to bid more time before starting to reduce the stimulus.
• For JCI, the nearest resistance coming at 4425-4452, followed by 4540. As for support, the first crucial support lies at 4313 and 4207. Below this will re-open the door towards the low at 3837. JCI's MACD has reentered the negative area by now.
• No change in view on the recommendations, no new additions as well. So far, three are in the green while four are still underwater.

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Morning Dew - 2 October 2013

Key Points

• Deadlock over the budget negotiations between the Republicans and the Democrats have led the US into shutdown. Global market sentiment took a blow initially, but recovered afterwards. In the case of JCI, the ailing sentiment got picked up by inflation data released which showed that inflation was down in September by 0.35% month-on-month. Meanwhile, trade account data also released at the same day showed a surplus of US$132.4 million.
• Domestic data trumped the US shutdown issue afterwards as the JCI soared to the gaining side and eventually finished the day up almost 0.7%. Despite the turnaround, technically speaking the daily chart urges caution as the MACD has just turned negative and that we are still stuck below the EMA envelope, a bearish indication. Resistances remain at 4444 and 4545. The first is the 50-day EMA, while the latter is the crossover between the 100-day and 200-day EMA. At the downside, 4207 is surely going to be the key support, followed by 4012 and 3837.
• No change in view on the recommendations, no new additions as well. So far, three are in the green while four are still underwater.

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