Morning Dew - 9 September 2013

Key Points

• JCI fell throughout the week as rupiah depreciates and as the FOMC meeting this September gets closer and closer. Rupiah depreciation has been a major drag for Indonesian stocks, despite mining and agriculture stocks turned out to fare better. On the contrary, Nikkei and Hang Seng as well as the Dow and its European counterparts were gaining strength last week. 
• US economy added 169k jobs in August, less than the expected reading of 180k but way above the July's number which was revised to 104k. Unemployment rate however, ticked down to 7.3% from 7.4% as more people left the labor force. US stocks ended mixed with the Dow slightly down by 0.1%, the S&P index nearly flat and the NASDAQ index inched higher by 0.03%.
• Retail sales data will be the main focus this coming week as the data will be the last piece of information due just before the Fed's FOMC meeting which is expected to deliver the beginning of its stimulus reduction. Looming intervention on Syria is also going to be gaining attention. Not much to be expected from such military action and the sooner the US delivers, the better for the market.
• Monday is expected to be green as the forex reserves data released late Friday is expected to boost sentiment. However, the looming FOMC meeting is seen capping the advance for now. Nearby support is seen around 4000-4020 while the resistance lies at 4172 at the nearest and subsequently at 4206.95. A breach of 4206.95 will be a sign that the corrective rally may resume and will aim for a test of 4373. Below 4k will risk drop to 3978 and 3924.

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