DISCLAIMER

This research report is prepared by PT MINNA PADI INVESTAMA Tbk for information purposes only and are not to be used or considered as an offer or the solicitation of an offer to sell or to buy or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. The report has been prepared without regard to individual financial circumstance, need or objective of person to receive it. The securities discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors. The appropriateness of any particular investment or strategy whether opined on or referred to in this report or otherwise will depend on an investor’s individual circumstance and objective and should be independently evaluated and confirmed by such investor, and, if appropriate, with his professional advisers independently before adoption or implementation (either as is or varied).

Rabu, 05 Februari 2014

Morning Dew - 6 February 2014

Slowing Down

Indonesia GDP growth slowed in 2013 from 6.2% in 2012 and 6.5% in 2011 to 5.78% in 2013. Excluding oil and gas sector, growth was at 6.25%.

Depreciating rupiah and higher interest rate policy were some key factors behind the 2013 economic slowdown. Exodus of foreign funds in 2013 on the other hand, was triggered by the US Federal Reserve’s plan to taper the stimulus. The tapering, was seen as a prelude to interest rate hike in the US, and this prompted foreign funds to retrieve their investments in Indonesia in exchange for US$-based investments/assets. This did not just happen in Indonesia, but the flight to quality has been seen around the world as well, especially among emerging economies.

USDIDR fell to IDR12,172 per US$ from IDR12,248 per US$. 

Private Sector Hiring Fell

US ADP Employment survey showed that private sector hiring fell in January from 227k to 175k, worse than the expected fall of 185k.

Another key US data was the ISM for non-manufacturing sector which was up in January. The reading was 54.0, better-than-the-expected 53.7, and an improvement from December’s number of 53.0.

The ADP number is considered as a leading indicator to US nonfarm payrolls data which is scheduled for release this Friday.

Technically Speaking...

The fall took a pause on Wednesday as the index ended up 0.7% at 4,384.

Recent low at 4,286 will be the nearest key support line while the next big support comes at 4,161, followed by 4,109 and 3,837.

Continuous pressure has eroded the upside potential of JCI. Nearest resistance is seen at 4,432, followed by another one around 4,480-4,510.

MACD has turned negative while RSI has started to slide. Volume has been on the decline. This suggests that the current flight could be corrective.

RALS has been filled at 1,270.

Day Ahead

Less-than-expected private payrolls in the US has triggered the decline of Dow. This could lead to another slide in JCI on Thursday. The next big thing is the payrolls data set for release on Friday. From the domestic side, recent report of slowing economic growth is also seen as negative for market sentiment.

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