DISCLAIMER

This research report is prepared by PT MINNA PADI INVESTAMA Tbk for information purposes only and are not to be used or considered as an offer or the solicitation of an offer to sell or to buy or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. The report has been prepared without regard to individual financial circumstance, need or objective of person to receive it. The securities discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors. The appropriateness of any particular investment or strategy whether opined on or referred to in this report or otherwise will depend on an investor’s individual circumstance and objective and should be independently evaluated and confirmed by such investor, and, if appropriate, with his professional advisers independently before adoption or implementation (either as is or varied).

Rabu, 07 Mei 2014

Morning Dew - 8 May 2014

Waiting Mode

Indonesia’s forex reserves up slightly in April to US$105.6 billion from US$102.6 billion in March on the back of rising oil and gas exports. The reported amount would enable the country to finance between 5.9 months and 6.1 months of imports and government’s foreign debts. The international standard of the adequacy rate is of three months of imports.

The market remains in a waiting mode despite the JCI ended higher on Wednesday. Ahead of the Friday’s official announcement of the recent legislative election, investors are keen to see how the political landscape will be formed to prepare for the upcoming presidential election.

From Ukraine, Russia said that its troops have been off the Ukrainian border. Vladimir Putin urged separatists to postpone the planned referendum the create necessary conditions for dialogue between the pro-Russian separatists and the Ukrainian government.

USDIDR inched higher to 11,527 from 11,511.

Accommodation Still Needed

Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen said that high degree of accommodation still needed even after years since recession had ended. Unemployment rate and inflation are currently short of the Fed’s goals, she said, which bolsters the need for strong stimulus.

 Yellen also said that there is no mechanical formula or timetable for when interest rate hike will occur.

Technically Speaking...

JCI broke off from its consolidation range between 4,800-4,850 and finished higher at 4,862 by the end of the Wednesday’s session.

Developing on the daily chart is the head-and-shoulders pattern with the neckline projected around 4,750 or just above the 50-day EMA. The left shoulder is at 4,903, the head at 4,933 and 4,916 is so far the right shoulder. Volume shows decreasing pattern from the left shoulder to the right one, adding credibility to the pattern.

JCI needs to break through the nearest resistance seen at 4,933 to negate the H&S pattern. Higher, subsequent resistances lie at 5,000 which is the psychological resistance and later the projection target at 5,063.

MACD turned higher, but still below the zero line; while the RSI also ticked up. 
Volume inched higher but it will need more convincing up sessions to negate the H&S pattern.

Day Ahead

PDI-P’s presidential candidate Joko Widodo said that his running mate will be announced sometime next week around May 9th 2014, plus minus one day. The official election result will be due on May 9th, which will finally bring clarity to the current political uncertainties. Ahead of Friday, the market may continue to move in a consolidation pattern. Meanwhile, Yellen’s remark should provide some cushion for the JCI.

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