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Rabu, 04 Desember 2013

Morning Dew - 5 December 2013

Budget & Taper Talks

Stocks tumbled across the board as most Asia, Europe and U.S. were all ended the day down. Concern over the timing of the tapering that could be sooner rather than later as well as the ongoing budget talk in Washington were the main catalysts.

Rupiah weakened against the USD, inching closer towards 12k, after the recent rally seemed to attract demand, especially after Monday’s US ISM data showed solid reading, bolstering the case for tapering sooner rather than later. Bank Indonesia stated that the CB will be ready to intervene to stabilize the volatility of the rupiah. Still, any intervention will not aim to bring rupiah to a certain level, rather it will be conducted to bring down volatility.

ISM Service and Housing Data

Despite strong manufacturing sector, the non-manufacturing index of ISM showed deceleration of pace in November. The index stood at 53.9 against 55.0 expected and lower than October’s 55.4.

New home sales however, soared 25.4% month-on-month in October, reversing September’s decline of 6.6%. September’s decline was worse than August’s uptick of 1.6%.

ADP reported an addition of 215k jobs in the private sector. ADP’s figure is considered as a gauge for the upcoming nonfarm payrolls data set for release next Friday.

Technically Speaking...

Despite a good start this week, JCI is still not out of the woods. The index is still way below the EMA band (4,400-4,490). 

Resistance is seen at 4,400 first, followed by 4,490, while on the downside the recent low at 4,202 will provide cushion for the index. 

Bullish divergence structure has not been followed through by meaningful rally so far. This is not a good sign as JCI is approaching its crucial support level at 4,202. Once broken, this could set up another decline towards 4,000, en route to 3,837.

META is in the active mode now as it has been filled at 270. Target is set at 330, with stop set below 240.

Day Ahead

Forces collide as the market continues to speculate that tapering is going to be sooner rather than later against the Bank Indonesia (BI) policy which is expected take a breather after a surprise rate hike as trade balance improved and inflation looks timid. It is likely that the JCI will continue to consolidate between 4,200-4,400 for now.
Diposting oleh di 14.17
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