DISCLAIMER

This research report is prepared by PT MINNA PADI INVESTAMA Tbk for information purposes only and are not to be used or considered as an offer or the solicitation of an offer to sell or to buy or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. The report has been prepared without regard to individual financial circumstance, need or objective of person to receive it. The securities discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors. The appropriateness of any particular investment or strategy whether opined on or referred to in this report or otherwise will depend on an investor’s individual circumstance and objective and should be independently evaluated and confirmed by such investor, and, if appropriate, with his professional advisers independently before adoption or implementation (either as is or varied).

Minggu, 08 Desember 2013

Morning Dew - 9 December 2013

FX Reserves Steady

Indonesia’s foreign exchange reserves were steady at US$97.0 billion at the end of November 2013.

The amount was unchanged compared to prior month and according to Bank Indonesia the current level is enough to support the external sector sustainability while holding above the international standards of adequacy.

The fx reserves position peaked during 2012 when it reached US$112.8 billion. 

Since then, the amount has been going downhill and approaching the 2010’s level of US$96.2 billion.

Getting Upbeat

U.S. payrolls grew strong in November, adding 203k jobs, following up a strong October reading of 200k. The reading beat the consensus of 185k. Unemployment rate was also upbeat as it fell sharply from 7.3% to 7.0%, also exceeded what the market had expected (7.2%).

A sigh of relief as the market responded positively towards the strong data. Strong payrolls were translated into better position for the economy to withstand the possible Fed’s stimulus tapering sometime in the future (possibly late 1Q14).

In China, trade surplus was reportedly grew to $33.8 billion in November, the biggest since January 2009.

Technically Speaking...

A poor finish last week had brought down several layers of supports and putting the next ones at 4,060 and 3,837.  Strong performances from the US and Europe on Friday signaled a potential rebound on Monday.

Prior support at 4,202 has now turned to resistance, followed by the next strong one at 4,331.

MACD has turned south instead of going higher above zero line. RSI too, is going lower again. Downside risk will diminish if a strong rally on Monday can push MACD back to the upside while pulling up the RSI to form a bullish divergence.

No changes in the reco pool so far.

Week Ahead

After a hard week, JCI is poised to start the week with a strong footing, thanks to data coming out of U.S. and China. U.S. payrolls were up strongly in November, accompanied by sharp drop in unemployment rate. The November trade data coming out of China was also strong, building up confidence that China’s on the right track to restore its economic glory.

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