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This research report is prepared by PT MINNA PADI INVESTAMA Tbk for information purposes only and are not to be used or considered as an offer or the solicitation of an offer to sell or to buy or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. The report has been prepared without regard to individual financial circumstance, need or objective of person to receive it. The securities discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors. The appropriateness of any particular investment or strategy whether opined on or referred to in this report or otherwise will depend on an investor’s individual circumstance and objective and should be independently evaluated and confirmed by such investor, and, if appropriate, with his professional advisers independently before adoption or implementation (either as is or varied).

Kamis, 02 Januari 2014

Morning Dew - 3 January 2014

A Fine Start

No Santa rally, but the market headed into the New Year with a fine start. JCI posted decent gains, breaking its technical barrier at 4,282 (see the tech page for details).

Inflation and trade balance data were released on Thursday,  showing that inflation was in line with consensus while trade data was better than expected.

Globally, the Fed’s tapering campaign will be the theme as the market will speculate on when the central bank will finally raise its rates. We believe it will be some time around 2015.

Domestically, IDR weakening risks further deterioration of current account deficit (CAD), and may move the hands of BI to raise rates again this year. 

Inflation Hit 8.38% in 2013

December saw month-on-month inflation of 0.55%, taking the FY13 inflation at 8.38% year-on-year. Core inflation hit 0.45% (month-on-month) in December while the FY13 core was at 4.98%.

November exports were reportedly up 1.45% (M/M) vs. October to US$15.93b, while against November 2012 the exports fell 2.4%. Year-to-date (Jan-Nov 13) the exports were at US$165.57b, down 5.19% against the same period a year earlier. 

Technically Speaking...

JCI started the New Year with solid gains as the index approaches the resistance at 4,331. Ending the first trading day at 4,327 has put it just above the 50-day EMA. The question is will it be able to follow up the gains on Friday?

The nearest resistance 4,331 with 4,380 (100-day EMA) as the next, followed by 4,408. On the flip side, the support is seen at 4,308 (50-day EMA) with subsequent support at 4,282 (prior resistance).

MACD is holding above zero line so far, while the RSI has broken its mid-line resistance (50%) and on course towards the overbought area. around the neutral zone. The recent rally had triggered the failure swing pattern on the RSI, and this looks good for now.

Day Ahead

European and American indices have backed away from recent highs as profit-taking set it. This is likely to be the case for JCI on Friday. Note that starting next Monday (6/1/14) there will be adjustments on price fractions and lot size, which could trigger some positions adjustments on Friday in addition to risk of profit-taking as the JCI may track the U.S. stocks.

Diposting oleh di 15.21
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