DISCLAIMER

This research report is prepared by PT MINNA PADI INVESTAMA Tbk for information purposes only and are not to be used or considered as an offer or the solicitation of an offer to sell or to buy or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. The report has been prepared without regard to individual financial circumstance, need or objective of person to receive it. The securities discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors. The appropriateness of any particular investment or strategy whether opined on or referred to in this report or otherwise will depend on an investor’s individual circumstance and objective and should be independently evaluated and confirmed by such investor, and, if appropriate, with his professional advisers independently before adoption or implementation (either as is or varied).

Minggu, 16 Maret 2014

Morning Dew - 17 March 2014



Jokowi Effect

Just before the Jokowi effect set in, the JCI had been under intense pressure after a 200-point drop of the Dow Jones index overnight. From down by almost 1%, the JCI roared back and sliced through layers of resistances before ending the day up more than 3% at 4,878.

Jokowi announced that he was “mandated” by Megawati Soekarnoputri to become PDI-P’s candidate for the 2014 Presidential election. Doubts surrounding his candidacy were erased as optimism set in. According to various surveys, Jokowi holds the lead over other candidates such as Gerindra’s Prabowo, Golkar’s ARB as well as Hanura’s Wiranto, even PDI-P’s Megawati herself.

The next big question is who will be his VP? Will it be another large coalition to be made or will it be a much smaller coalition instead?

Ukraine and China

While Jokowi saved the day for JCI, other major stock indexes around the world are still shrouded by the prospect of China’s economic slowdown as well as the failure of the peace talks between Russia and US.

Bank Indonesia has lowered its forecast for growth in 2014 to 5.5% - 5.9% from 5.8% - 6.2% on the back of less robust expansion of domestic consumption as well as exports.

Technically Speaking...

JCI roared its way past the key resistance at 4,791 with ease, opening a fresh opportunity towards the next objective at 5,063.

Recent peak-turned-support at 4,791 will be the nearest key support line for JCI, whereas another support will be at 4,665 as this was also the prior resistance-turned-support.

Next resistance is seen at 4,917, ahead of 5,000 which is the psychological resistance and subsequently the projection target at 5,063. While still a long-shot, the distant 5,653 price objective is now within radar.

MACD jumped on Friday, with volume still strong despite slight slip-up. RSI has turned higher again, back within the overbought area (>70%).

Both ROTI and TAXI have been filled at their respective entry points.

Week Ahead

The Jokowi effect may as well endure for a while, dampening the negative impact coming from global factors such as Ukraine and the prospect of China’s economy slowdown. Financials led the Friday’s gains, but as Jokowi is viewed to be benefiting construction of infrastructures, constructions are expected to shine if Jokowi wins the election. Gains by PTPP, ADHI, WIKA, and WSKT reinforce this view.

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