Morning Dew - 18 March 2014

Homecoming

After 60 years under Ukraine, around 96% of Crimeans voted to return to Russia. Despite the majority of the vote, Kiev, EU and the US said they do not recognize the vote. Russia on the other hand, said that the vote complied with international standards.

In 1954, Nikita Khrushchev gave Crimea to Ukraine as a gift.

The West has issued threats to sanction Russia if Russia seizes Crimea. US proposed a resolution in the UN Security Council to declare the referendum as illegal and emphasized the need for political dialogue to resolve the crisis. Russia vetoed the resolution while China abastained and the other 13 members backed the resolution.

So far, there is no signs that Vladimir Putin will be back off from annexing Crimea, even as the EU and the U.S. have decided to freeze assets and impose visa travel bans on some Russians, Crimeans as well as former Ukrainian officials.

Eyes Back on the Fed

US factory output jumped 0.8% in February, the most in six months reversing a 0.9% decline in January. New York ISM however, inched higher to 5.61 from 4.48, trailing consensus of 6.5.

Eyes will be back on the Fed as the FOMC set to meet again on Tuesday and Wednesday.  While rates are expected to be held steady, the FOMC is expected to curb another US$10bn of bond buying to $55bn from $65bn.

Technically Speaking...

After setting up another peak for 2014 at 4,903.50, JCI stepped back a bit and ended the day at 4,876.19.

Recent peak-turned-support at 4,791 will be the nearest key support line for JCI, whereas another support will be at 4,665 as this was also the prior resistance-turned-support.

Next resistance is seen at 4,917, ahead of 5,000 which is the psychological resistance and subsequently the projection target at 5,063. While still a long-shot, the distant 5,653 price objective is now within radar.

MACD continued to rise on Monday, volume ticked down while RSI also continue to rise beyond the 70% mark.

ANTM has been filled at its suggested entry price at 1,100.

Day Ahead

The Jokowi effect may as well endure for a while, dampening the negative impact coming from global factors such as Ukraine and the prospect of China’s economy slowdown. The next big thing for the domestic affairs will be who to be chosen as the candidate for vice president accompanying Jokowi in the presidential election. Fed meeting will also be watched closely, especially whether the FOMC will signal any changes in its economic assessments and/or monetary policy.

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