Morning Dew - 4 March 2014

Ukrainian Heat

Global rout took down JCI to end at 4,584.21 or down by 0.78% at the start of the month. Ukrainian heat sent nervous investors fleeing equities. The situation is expected to remain tense as Russian initiative is being criticized by international community. 

Inflation eased in February to 7.75% (year-on-year) from 8.22% seen in January. Month-on-month, inflation stood at 0.26% in February, significantly decelerated from the same period last year when it was at 0.75% and also slower than January’s month-on-month inflation of 1.07%. Instant food, drinks, cigarettes and tobacco were contributing to the rise in February. 

Trade surplus turned to deficit in January as exports fell 5.79% to US$14.48 billion while imports fell 3.46% to US$14.92 billion, bringing a deficit of US$430.6 million. Raw minerals ban sent mineral ore exports down by more than 70% during the period.

USDIDR continued to fall to 11,596 from 11,634.

KRAS, BPFI and IMJS

KRAS saw less losses in 2013 as it recorded a loss of US$13,986k vs. US$20,435k in prior year. Its revenues however, fell 8.87% to $2,084,448k while its assets and liabilities were also down by 7.12% and 8.2%, respectively.

BPFI booked a 23.97% jump in net profit in 2013 as its net income rose by 31.38%. Assets grew 50.98% while liabilities were up by 69.74%.

IMJS booked net profit of 121,533 million in 2013, reversing prior year’s losses of 66 million.  Revenues were up 21.47% to 1,473,970 million

Technically Speaking...

JCI slipped by 0.78% to end the day at 4,584.21 as geopolitics sour the mood.

Recent peak-turned-support at 4,477 will be the nearest key support line for JCI, whereas the 200-day EMA at 4,440 will be the subsequent support area. Nearer support will be at 4,510 as this was the prior resistance-turned-support.

Nearest resistance is seen at around 4,665, Friday’s high. Meanwhile, 4,791 will be the next hurdle to crack should 4,650 gives way.

MACD continued to tick down, capping the upside potential at the moment while volume gradually ticks up. RSI has made its turn lower, but still near the overbought area. The hammering of global stock indexes hinted at more losses to come.

Day Ahead

Stocks are expected to remain under pressure on Tuesday as Russian military strengthens its presence in the Crimea. Improving inflation data clashed with souring trade balance, hence offering no significant boost to the mood from domestic side. As more financial reporting continue, Wika Beton is poised to go public.

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