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Sabtu, 09 Agustus 2014

Morning Dew - 11 August 2014

Forex Reserves Up

JCI slipped on Friday as consolidation continued to strain the index within the range of 5,000 to 5,165. Recent poor macro data have capped the index from moving past 5,165 while investors remain cautious over the disputed election result. Still, it is expected that there won’t be any changes in the recent presidential election result.

Foreign exchange reserves were up at the end of July 2014 to US$110.5 billion, from US$107.7 billion a month earlier. Receipts from Eurobonds issued by the Indonesian government and earnings from oil and gas exports as well as rising foreign capital inflows were the prime factors behind the gains in reserves.

At such level, the forex reserves can cover 6.4 months of imports or 6.2 months of imports while servicing government’s external debt repayment. International standard of reserves adequacy is at three months of imports.

USDIDR inched higher to end at 11,822 per US$ from 11,766 per US$ on Friday.

Global Data

China trade balance improved in July as surplus grew to US$47.3 billion from US$31.56 billion. Initially, the consensus forecast the surplus to have shrunk to US$26 billion.

China’s exports soared by 14.5% from 7.2% a month earlier while imports actually fell 1.6% vs a 2.6% increase forecast earlier.

From the U.S. the nonfarm productivity for 2Q14 was up by 2.5% vs. 1.6% expected. In previous quarter the productivity weas down 4.5%.

Technically Speaking...

JCI fell on Friday as the index returned to consolidation mode.

Current resistance lies at 5,165, the recent intraday high. Beyond this the index will aim at 5,251 – the all-time high seen last year.

Near-term supports are seen at 5,039 and 5,000, followed by 4,950, the former EMA-50 resistance now turned as support. 

MACD has now crossed the zero line and returned to negative, while RSI has bounced somewhat after slipping away for the last few sessions. Volume was stable, however.

ADRO, SMRA and WSKT recos are still awaiting their entry prices to be filled. Please check the details on the table below.

Week Ahead

Election dispute, geopolitics, and recent slew of poor economic data are seen putting a drag on the index. With no significant issues around, the index is seen moving back within its consolidation range. Solid gains of DJIA on Friday may help support the JCI at the start of the coming week.

Diposting oleh di 10.14
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