Stumbling Block
The incoming president Jokowi is likely to start off his term with one unpopular decision: to raise the fuel price. The move is deemed important to reduce the heavy burden that the government has to bear which has led to scarcity of fuel recently. While distribution has been normalized, under a tight supply of fuel there is no guarantee that such thing will happen again.
According to Jokowi, he had asked the current president, SBY to reduce the burden by raising the fuel price earlier before the new government starts to rule, but this request was said to have been rejected. A reduced subsidy on fuel is expected to open up possibilities to channel government spending on other needs such as infrastructure, healthcare and education.
Amidst all that, JCI attempted once more on Thursday to take on the resistance at 5,200 mark, but still with no success in settling the daily closing price above it.
Elsewhere in the U.S., hackers were reportedly managed to hack into JP Morgan Chase’s computer system.
USDIDR was down at 11,682 on Thursday compared to Wednesday’s settlement at 11,708.
BJBR, U.S. GDP
Pefindo has revised BJBR’s rating prospect to negative from stable. The weakening of the asset quality and company’s profitability indicators have been the factors behind the revision.
From the U.S., the 2nd quarter GDP was reportedly up by 4.2% (yoy) vs. 4.0% initially reported. Upward revisions hinged on business spending and exports. Meanwhile, U.S. jobless claims were down 1k to 298k last week.
Technically Speaking...
JCI continues to struggle to break through the 5,200 barrier as the index launched another attack on Thursday. No clean break so far however, as the day ended at 5,184.48.
As for now, JCI is aiming to secure its ground above 5,200 and subsequently the focus will turn to the next resistance at 5,251, the all-time record high while near-term supports are seen at 5,150-65 (congestion area) and then 5,135, the former lower consolidation band, 5,039 and 5,000, followed by 4,950, the former EMA-50 resistance now turned as support.
MACD has swung back to negative area whilst RSI has pop up above the 70% mark.
ADRO, SMRA and WSKT recos are still awaiting their entry prices to be filled. Please check the details on the table below.
Day Ahead
Fuel price has become a new catalyst which can put a dent on the JCI’s chance to rally in the short-term, but on the long-run it could have somewhat a more positive impact on the index. Other than fuel price, the cabinet composition to work under Jokowi’s leadership will be also another wildcard for market mood in the near-term. Better-than-expected US GDP for 2Q14 should also lend support to the market mood.
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