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Senin, 11 Agustus 2014

Morning Dew - 12 August 2014

Cement Sales Down

JCI started the week on a solid footing as it closed at 5,113.24 or up 59.48 points or 1.18% higher than Friday’s close. Most sectors were up, except the agriculture and mining sectors.

The case over election dispute remains in progress, but lack of strong proofs may hand Prabowo-Hatta’s side the MK’s dismissal, and the market seems to be factoring in this issue.

Cement sales fell 25% in July 2014 from 5 million tons (July 2013) to 3.7 million tons. Economic slowdown as well as Idul Fitri holiday were cited as behind the decline. After the holiday-packed month, sales are expected to recover in the coming months. For the entire 2014 the ASI (Asosiasi Semen Indonesia) forecast sales to grow between 4% to 5%.

China data released on Saturday showed inflation was steady at 2.3% in July (YoY) while PPI (or inflation at the production stage) declined 0.9% in July (YoY) after a 1.1% decline a month earlier. Timid inflation in China is seen accommodative to the Chinese economy.

USDIDR slipped to end at 11,728 per US$ from 11,822 per US$ on Monday.

Corporate News: JECC & SMSM

Cable manufacturer JECC booked a 24.63% increase of revenue within the first six months this year (Rp763.91b) against the same period last year (Rp612.91b).
Auto components producer SMSM’s revenues were up to Rp1.29t, or rising 18.68% from Rp1.09t seen last year during the same period. By June, overseas markets contributed 67.74% from total revenues or up 36.79% from last year. Local markets contributed Rp416.59b or 32.26% of total revenues.

Technically Speaking...

JCI is off to a fine start this week, gaining 1.2% to end above 5,100, but it remains within its consolidation range between 5,000 and 5,165.

Current resistance lies at 5,165, the recent intraday high. Beyond this the index will aim at 5,251 – the all-time high seen last year.

Near-term supports are seen at 5,039 and 5,000, followed by 4,950, the former EMA-50 resistance now turned as support. 

MACD has ticked up after a string of declines but still within the negative area. RSI has flattened after recent bounce and volume also inched higher on Monday, however.

ADRO, SMRA and WSKT recos are still awaiting their entry prices to be filled. Please check the details on the table below.

Day Ahead

Election dispute, geopolitics, and recent slew of poor economic data are seen putting a drag on the index, although improving forex reserves seemed to help a bit. With no significant issues around, the index is seen confined within its consolidation range. Strong gains on Monday may spark correction but downside remains secure while the upside potential is maintained.

Diposting oleh di 14.44
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