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This research report is prepared by PT MINNA PADI INVESTAMA Tbk for information purposes only and are not to be used or considered as an offer or the solicitation of an offer to sell or to buy or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. The report has been prepared without regard to individual financial circumstance, need or objective of person to receive it. The securities discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors. The appropriateness of any particular investment or strategy whether opined on or referred to in this report or otherwise will depend on an investor’s individual circumstance and objective and should be independently evaluated and confirmed by such investor, and, if appropriate, with his professional advisers independently before adoption or implementation (either as is or varied).

Minggu, 11 Januari 2015

Morning Dew - 12 January 2015

No Reason

JCI was steady on Friday despite impressive gains recorded abroad. 

Russian blues continued as the country’s credit rating was cut to BBB minus from BBB by Fitch rating agency. Slump in oil prices and collapse of rouble have worsened its economic outlook. The rating is now just one step away from ‘junk’ status. On Friday, Oil prices remained weak as the WTI crude oil fell to US$48.36/bbl. and Brent crude fell to US$50.11/bbl.

In the U.S., one of Federal Reserve’s voting members Dennis Lockhart said that Friday’s strong jobs report is no reason to accelerate the timing of interest-rate increase.  Lockhart sees the rate increase may occur in the middle of the year or later. Lack of wage growth, he said, suggests that slack remains in the labor market.

USDIDR was markedly down at Rp12,640/US$ from Rp12,731/US$ a day earlier.

Cement Update

Cement sales rose 1.7% (YoY) in December to 5.4 million tons, but fell 7.2% (MoM). Most cement sales recorded by Java with 56% of total cement sales in 2014. Under the current government blueprint of infrastructure projects, this year the cement sales growth is targeted around 5 to 6 percent (YoY).

Cumulatively, the total sales for the entire 2014 reached 59.9 million metric tons, up 3.3% from prior year, but missed the target set by the Indonesian Cement Association which targeted 3.5% to 4.0% sales growth (YoY). Initially, the target was set around 6%, but due to heated up political atmosphere as well as weak global commodity prices, the sales target had been revised down.

Keeping Up the Pace

Job recovery maintained the pace in December as US economy added 252k jobs in December, more than 240k that were expected, but still trailing the November’s jump of 353k. Unemployment rate was also down in December, from 5.8% a month earlier to 5.6%, lower than the 5.7% expected. Private payrolls were up 240k, beating consensus of 225k but still below November’s 345k. Average hourly earnings however, fell 0.2% in December (MoM) while it decelerated to 1.7% on year-on-year basis. US stocks fell after it racked up an impressive gains on Thursday, as DJIA finished at 17,737.37.

Technically Speaking...

JCI continues to stay above its EMA supports, maintaining the potential to reach new heights early this year.

However, should the index falls back inside the EMA envelope, it will risk returning to the 5k area.

While the resistance at 5,200 has been narrowly broken, follow-throughs remain elusive. Subsequent resistance will be at 5,251, ahead of the all-time record high at 5,262. 

Despite the slow grind, the JCI is seen up to set new highs, heading towards the uncharted territories with 5,700-6,000 being the target area. 
Looking at the indicators, RSI has shot up towards the overbought area while the MACD has been slipping gradually. Volume on the other hand, has been steady during the last three sessions.

Corrections coming from the US and European stocks, suggest that the JCI is also likely to see some downward pressure on Monday.

Diposting oleh di 11.12
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