DISCLAIMER

This research report is prepared by PT MINNA PADI INVESTAMA Tbk for information purposes only and are not to be used or considered as an offer or the solicitation of an offer to sell or to buy or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. The report has been prepared without regard to individual financial circumstance, need or objective of person to receive it. The securities discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors. The appropriateness of any particular investment or strategy whether opined on or referred to in this report or otherwise will depend on an investor’s individual circumstance and objective and should be independently evaluated and confirmed by such investor, and, if appropriate, with his professional advisers independently before adoption or implementation (either as is or varied).

Senin, 12 Januari 2015

Morning Dew - 13 January 2015

Stepping Back

JCI stepped back, tracking the losses abroad, taking the JCI back below 5,200. Losses continued overnight as oil prices fell, dragging the U.S. index further lower.

USDIDR slipped again at Rp12,568/US$ from Rp12,640/US$ a day earlier.

WSKT

PT Waskita Karya (Persero) Tbk. (WSKT) is planning to conduct rights issue worth Rp5.3tn with the government's portion of Rp3.5tn and the public portion amounting to Rp1.8tn. The State-Owned Enterprise (SOE) is 67.76% owned by the government and 32.24% by the public. Proceeds from the rights issue is set to be used for construction of toll roads (70%) through its subsidiary PT Waskita Toll Road and the remaining proceeds (30%) is set to be used to build power transmission in Sumatera which will be done by its Energy and Engineering, Procurement and Construction (EPC) division. This year, WSKT projects its net profit to reach Rp1tn. Last year, the company failed to reach its target revenues of Rp11.8tn after having booked revenues worth Rp10.4tn. Compared to 2013's revenues, the revenues figure was 7.43% higher (2013 revenues worth Rp9.68tn).On contract terms, the total value of contracts for 2015 is expected to be around Rp50tn, with Rp18tn carried over from 2014, and Rp32tn worth of new contracts.

MDLN

PT Modernland Realty Tbk. (MDLN) is aiming at marketing sales of Rp5.4tn this year, up 42% compared to last year's sales of Rp3.8tn. Two main portfolio at Cikande and Eastern Jakarta are expected to support the company's target aside from four to five new clusters set for launch this year.

Pre-marketing sales throughout 2014 were revised to Rp3.8tn from previous target of Rp4tn. The revised figure however, was still higher than its 2013 marketing sales which reached Rp3tn.

On the capex side, the property developer has prepared Rp1.3tn this year. The money is set for acquiring additional land bank about 500ha which are situated around Cikande and Eastern Jakarta. The funding will come solely from internal cash.

At the moment, MDLN's land bank totalled to 1,288ha, which means with its additional 500ha expansion plan, the total land bank area will be at 1,788ha by the end of 2015.

Rebalancing Oil

According to Goldman Sachs, oil prices may need to fall further below $40/barrel to rebalance the currently vulnerable oil prices. GS slashed its six-and 12-month forecast for WTI crude oil to US$39/bbl and US$65/bbl, respectively. Previously, the forecasts were US$75 and US$80, respectively. The Brent crude price forecast was also lowered from US$85 and US$90 to US$43 and US$70. On Monday, the Brent fell to US$47.64/bbl while the WTI slipped to US$46.35/bbl. The forecast prices will keep investment low enough to eventually rebalance the supply and demand.

Technically Speaking...

JCI continues to stay above its EMA supports, maintaining the potential to reach new heights early this year.

However, should the index falls back inside the EMA envelope, it will risk returning to the 5k area.

A setback on Monday put the index back below 5,200 as follow-through rally remains elusive. Subsequent resistance will be at 5,251, ahead of the all-time record high at 5,262. 

Despite the slow grind, the JCI is seen up to set new highs, heading towards the uncharted territories with 5,700-6,000 being the target area. 

Looking at the indicators, RSI has curled lower after reaching the overbought area while the MACD has continued to slip gradually. Volume also slipped during the Monday’s session.

Further corrections coming from the US and European stocks, suggest that the JCI is still at risk to see some more downward pressure on Tuesday.

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