DISCLAIMER

This research report is prepared by PT MINNA PADI INVESTAMA Tbk for information purposes only and are not to be used or considered as an offer or the solicitation of an offer to sell or to buy or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. The report has been prepared without regard to individual financial circumstance, need or objective of person to receive it. The securities discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors. The appropriateness of any particular investment or strategy whether opined on or referred to in this report or otherwise will depend on an investor’s individual circumstance and objective and should be independently evaluated and confirmed by such investor, and, if appropriate, with his professional advisers independently before adoption or implementation (either as is or varied).

Selasa, 13 Januari 2015

Morning Dew - 14 January 2015

World Growth Forecast Cut

JCI regained its position above 5,200 level, setting up another attempt to burst higher towards its record high at 5,262. 

World Bank forecast 3% growth of the world economy in 2015, higher than 2.6% estimate in 2014. The forecast was lower than its previous forecast of 3-4% global growth back in June 2014. Gloomy European and Japan outlook were among the factors behind the forecast cut. China’s slowdown has also worsened the outlook.

For the US economy, the World Bank is expected to grow 3.2% in 2015, up from 2.4% in 2014. In the Euro Area, growth is seen at 1.1% in 2015, slightly up from 0.8% in 2014. Japan’s economy is also seen improving in 2015, from 0.2% in 2014 to 1.2%. China’s slowdown is seen to go from 7.4% in 2014 to 7.1% this year.

Indonesia’s growth is seen slightly higher at 5.2% in 2015, vs. 5.1% estimated in 2014. As for 2016 and 2017, the World Bank forecast the economy to grow at 5.5% on both year.

USDIDR rebounded to Rp12,608/US$, from Rp12,568/US$.

BBYB IPO

Bank Yudha Bhakti (BBYB) offered 300 million shares at Rp115 per share, raising Rp34.5bn from the IPO.

BBYB forecast credit growth of 33% in 2015, supported by third-party funds growth of 21%. Profit growth is targeted at 170% to Rp48.34bn.

Proceeds from the IPO will be used for business development (72.14%) and development of IT department (27.86%)

Gozco Capital controls 53.82% of BBYB, while Military and National Police holds 25.49%, Sugeng Subroto holds 3.52%, cooperative of BBYB’s employees holds 5.24% while the public holds 11.93%.

BBYB closed its debut trading day up almost 70% at Rp195 per share.

Searching for Bottom

Oil rout continued on Tuesday, sending the US crude at $45.89 while the Brent settled at $46.59. Brent briefly fell to $45.19, at par with the US crude, making it the lowest level since 2009. UAE’s defense over the OPEC’s decision to maintain output level sent oil prices tumbling. Meanwhile, US oil output is seen shrinking in 2016, as losses mount.

In its Jan 9 report, SocGen slashed its WTI price forecast to US$51 from US$65 for 2015, while for Brent, the forecast is lowered to US$55 from US$70 for 2015.

Technically Speaking...

JCI continued to consolidate its position above the EMA-envelope, forming a triangular shape. Traditionally a continuation pattern, the JCI’s next path is likely to be up, setting it for another attempt to break its record high at 5,262, en route to 5,700-6,000 next target area.

However, should the index falls back inside the EMA envelope, it will risk returning to the 5k area.

Looking at the indicators, RSI has curled lower after reaching the overbought area while the MACD has continued to slip gradually. Volume however, spiked on Tuesday.

Weak performance from the US stocks may cap upside potential on Wednesday, but the JCI maintains its upside potential at the moment. 

Diposting oleh di 15.09
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