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Rabu, 27 November 2013

Morning Dew - 28 November 2013

Waiting for Santa

JCI scored another low at 4,220 before it finally settled the day at 4,251.

Lack of new catalysts put the market mostly on hold as it awaits the next FOMC meeting. While James Bullard said that tapering is still on the table, it is likely to be put off until after the next US budget crisis sometime in 1Q14. Likewise, Bank Indonesia is expected to stay on hold in December on rates, but may not hesitate to strike again in 1Q14 if IDR stays weak, or should the current account condition deteriorates again.

Traditionally a good month for stocks, the beat up JCI is desperately looking for relief rally in December.

Durables Fell

US Durable Goods Orders fell 2% in October, vs. 4.1% increase in September but in line with consenus. Ex-transport items orders fell 0.1%, vs. 0.2% increase in prior month, vs. 0.5% consensus.

Jobless claims fell from 325k to 316k, better than the expected increase to 330k.

Chicago PMI fell to 63 in November from 65.9, but better than consensus of 60.

U Mich Confidence in November was reportedly up to 75.1 from 72. Better than 73 expected earlier.

Technically Speaking...

JCI scored another low at 4,220 but bounced off afterwards to end the day at 4,272. As support at 4,284 gave way, we are staring at the odds of testing the next support at 4,133. If 4,133 unable hold off the bears as well, we may revisit the old low at 3,837.

Indicators have started to form a bullish divergent pattern. As the index set a lower low, the MACD is still holding up flat while RSI has not set up a lower low. If this pattern is confirmed, we could see some decent rebound on JCI. Until then however, the outlook remains gloomy for coming sessions.

CLPI has been removed from the reco list as it fell below its risk level at 580. INDF has met its entry point and currently it is active.

Day Ahead

US public holiday is seen sapping the energy or at least the market’s appetite to make some big moves. Lack of new catalysts may limit JCI as well, but after several pounding, the index may see some rebound this Thursday.

Diposting oleh di 13.39
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