DISCLAIMER

This research report is prepared by PT MINNA PADI INVESTAMA Tbk for information purposes only and are not to be used or considered as an offer or the solicitation of an offer to sell or to buy or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. The report has been prepared without regard to individual financial circumstance, need or objective of person to receive it. The securities discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors. The appropriateness of any particular investment or strategy whether opined on or referred to in this report or otherwise will depend on an investor’s individual circumstance and objective and should be independently evaluated and confirmed by such investor, and, if appropriate, with his professional advisers independently before adoption or implementation (either as is or varied).

Kamis, 28 November 2013

Morning Dew - 29 November 2013

Bottom Fishing

JCI scored  yet another low at 4,202, sparked by failed debt sale before it finally settled the day at 4,234.

Lack of new catalysts put the market mostly on hold as it awaits the next FOMC meeting. While tapering is still on the table, it is likely to be put off until after the next US budget crisis sometime in 1Q14. Likewise, Bank Indonesia is expected to stay on hold in December on rates, but may not hesitate to strike again in 1Q14 if IDR stays weak, or should the current account condition deteriorates.

Traditionally a good month for stocks, the beat up JCI is desperately looking for relief rally in December.

Debt Sale

Poor result from Indonesia’s first ever domestic dollar-bond auction sparked a renewed concern over the flight of capital, sending the rupiah beyond 12k per US$.

Just $190 million worth of debt was sold, far below the target of $450 million, according to the Ministry of Finance.

As Fed’s tapering approaching, it is likely that more money will be repatriated to US$-based assets, adding more pressure to IDR.

Technically Speaking...

JCI scored yet another low at 4,202 but bounced off afterwards to end the day at 4,234. As support at 4,284 gave way, we are staring at the odds of testing the next support at 4,133. If 4,133 unable hold off the bears as well, we may revisit the old low at 3,837.

Indicators have started to form a bullish divergent pattern. As the index set a lower low, the MACD is still holding up flat while RSI has not set up a lower low. If this pattern is confirmed, we could see some decent rebound on JCI. Until then however, the outlook remains gloomy for coming sessions.

Day Ahead

Worsening rupiah could limit the JCI’s upside potential as this could dent the profitability of companies which depend on imports, but on the other end benefit the companies that rely on exports. How BI will cope with this rupiah weakness will be a theme for the domestic market amidst a lack of catalysts from abroad. This Friday the index is expected to continue bottom-fishing.

Diposting oleh di 14.15
Label:

Tidak ada komentar:

Posting Komentar

Langganan: Posting Komentar (Atom)