Back to the Fed
Rudderless
- US Federal Reserve will return into the spotlight as the market digested two key positive data during the recent week. US GDP growth in 3Q13 has not been disappointing after all, having beaten the consensus pretty much. On the other hand, hiring from both private and government remained strong in October, also beating out the consensus.
- These two data brought back the question on whether the US economy will be ready for the stimulus reduction or should it wait a little while longer? Some seem to be viewing the Fed to move before March next year. While some others think that the Fed will make its move some time after March next year.
Payrolls and China
- US payrolls grew 204k in October, sharply higher than the consensus of 120k and also higher than 163k reported last month.
- Inflation in China slightly below consensus, up 3.2% in October, & below-than-consensus of 3.3%. As for industrial production growth, the production was surprisingly robust in September.
Technically Speaking...
- JCI’s outlook remains cloudy as the index stays below its EMA band at 4,470.
- The loss of the EMA support at 4,470 had switched its role back to resistance. Key support now lies at 4,313/4,314, followed by 4,207.
- Outlook turned negative as the price slipped below 4,470 with the MACD continued to push deeper into the negative area. Wednesday’s rise however, was accompanied by a pick-up in volume, a sign that we may see a rebound in Thursday’s session.
- SMRA found its entry price and thus the recommendation has started.
Week Ahead
Lack of catalysts will bring back the Fed to the center stage. On Thursday the hearing on the nomination of Janet Yellen to replace the soon departing Ben Bernanke will take place. There should be no significant hurdle to derail Yellen’s chance to be the next Fed chairman, and this should be positive for the stocks as Yellen is a supporter of Fed stimulus.
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