DISCLAIMER

This research report is prepared by PT MINNA PADI INVESTAMA Tbk for information purposes only and are not to be used or considered as an offer or the solicitation of an offer to sell or to buy or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. The report has been prepared without regard to individual financial circumstance, need or objective of person to receive it. The securities discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors. The appropriateness of any particular investment or strategy whether opined on or referred to in this report or otherwise will depend on an investor’s individual circumstance and objective and should be independently evaluated and confirmed by such investor, and, if appropriate, with his professional advisers independently before adoption or implementation (either as is or varied).

Minggu, 17 November 2013

Morning Dew - November 18th 2013

Policy Path

Stocks ended the week on a weak footing as Bank Indonesia set out its policy goal to stabilize rupiah. JCI bounced a bit after a narrowing of current account deficit was reported, but ended the week lower anyway even after the next Fed boss Janet Yellen reiterated her support of stimulus policy.

On Wednesday, the market was under heavy pressure after BI raised rates unexpectedly to 7.5%. Three economic variables were seen as the reasons behind the move: current account, rupiah, and inflation. Improved CA position may not be enough to sway BI away from triggering another rate rise as rupiah stays weak against the greenback. 

Retail Sales & Inflation

US retail sales and CPI data for October are to feature on a less data-packed week next week. 

Retail sales are expected to be up 0.1% in October after slightly declined in a month before. Excluding auto, sales are expected to slow from 0.4% to 0.1%.
Consumer inflation however, is seen to have slowed to 1.0% in October from 1.2% seen a month earlier. Excluding volatile food and energy items, CPI is expected to maintain its pace at 1.7%.

Technically Speaking...

JCI rise on Friday was capped at its prior support-turned-resistance at 4,403 and eventually ended on a weaker footing. The technical outlook for JCI remains bleak as the index now hovers below its EMA band, negative MACD, and there’s still no sign of RSI going to rally from the oversold area.

Resistance stays at 4,403 at the moment, followed by the pivotal 4,494 and 4,791.
Support is seen first at 4,284, for when this support line is broken, the way lower will be re-opened and we will risk another fall towards 4,133 en route to 3,837.
Overall, we are still not out of the woods.

Week Ahead

Yellen’s assurance that stimulus will stay and the improving current account position will be the positive catalysts to support the market on the coming week. We should remain cautious that BI has taken its own path down the policy road. If BI deems the rates should go up again, it will make that happen, regardless of what the Fed does.

Diposting oleh di 01.58
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