DISCLAIMER

This research report is prepared by PT MINNA PADI INVESTAMA Tbk for information purposes only and are not to be used or considered as an offer or the solicitation of an offer to sell or to buy or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. The report has been prepared without regard to individual financial circumstance, need or objective of person to receive it. The securities discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors. The appropriateness of any particular investment or strategy whether opined on or referred to in this report or otherwise will depend on an investor’s individual circumstance and objective and should be independently evaluated and confirmed by such investor, and, if appropriate, with his professional advisers independently before adoption or implementation (either as is or varied).

Selasa, 15 April 2014

Morning Dew - 16 April 2014

Stalling

JCI’s advance stalled on Tuesday as lack of catalysts triggered some profit-taking during this holiday-shortened week. Nothing new on political front as well as no fresh news on the economic front.
In corporate level, Bank Mutiara Tbk. (BCIC) released its 2013 financial report which showed 4.36% and 5.68% declines in assets and liabilities, respectively. Net interest income nearly halved to IDR258,028 million from IDR441,785 million, leading to a net loss of IDR1,136,045 million in 2013, a reverse from net profit of IDR145,596 million seen in 2012.
While US stocks bounced off its lows after initial weakness, the tech stocks are expected to remain threatened by concerns over their valuations.
On the geopolitics front, a renewed concern over Russia-Ukraine spat could be a negative catalyst for the market as Ukraine launched an offensive against militants in eastern Donetsk region. Russian special forces were reportedly identified among the anti-government groups.

Poor Start

Unlike recent IPOs, LRNA fared poorly on its debut. The transportation company’s stock slipped  13.33% to end at IDR780 compared to its initial price of IDR900. About 150 million shares or 42.86% of its equity were offered along with 30 million warrants were issued with 5:1 ratio. Lack of interest on the stock led the company to consider obtaining bank loans to cover the shortage of around IDR90bn. Initially the company aimed to gain IDR225bn from the offering but only get around IDR135bn instead.

Technically Speaking...

JCI struggled to maintain its gains on Tuesday, but only managed to score a razor-thin gains by the end of the day.

Failure to follow-through its recent gains has formed a potentially bearish star pattern on the daily JCI chart, a traditionally sign of trouble. We had exactly the same pattern when the index took a sharp dive from 4,933 last week.

The nearest resistance is seen at 4,930, the recent intraday high ahead of 5,000 which is the psychological resistance and subsequently the projection target at 5,063.

Key support lies at 4,661 which corresponds to the 50-day EMA curve.

Volume slipped on Tuesday, but the MACD continued to return to above the zero line while the RSI curve turned flat.

Day Ahead

Despite recent bounce, JCI is definitely not out of the woods just yet. A potentially bearish star formation on the daily JCI chart is a strong reminder of what had happened when the index took a plunge after it hit 4,933 after last week’s election. Holiday-shortened week, lack of fresh news on both the political and economic front as well as lingering concern over US tech stocks are pointing at a risk of another setback. Rising tension in Ukraine may also heightened the risk.

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