Make-or-Break
Asian Development Bank (ADB) forecast Indonesian GDP growth to slow to 5.7% in 2014 (vs. 5.78% in 2013) but to recover to 6% in 2015. The forecast assumes that the elections this year will be smooth and that the government will continue to support investment climate. Household consumption is seen to remain strong while inflation is seen moderating after hitting the peak of nearly 9% in 2013. CAD reduction will remain a challenge in 2014 and in subsequent years. More infrastructure investment by private sector is urged to improve business climate. By doing so will help reduce in the CAD in the longer-term.
JCI stalled just under the nose of recent peak at 4,903, starting to form a double-top formation which could derail the index from attaining the 5k mark, especially if the key support at 4,661 fails to hold. It’s still too early to conclude however, while at the moment the door towards 5k remains open. It’s going to be a make-or-break soon for JCI.
USDIDR ticked up to 11,303 from 11,271 on Wednesday.
Goods orders, ADP
US factory goods orders increased 1.6% in February, beating the consensus of a 1.2% rise.
ADP Research Institute reported that private hiring came up by 191k in March, slightly beating the consensus figure of 195k. ADP number is considered as a guide to the Friday’s US nonfarm payrolls figures.
Technically Speaking...
JCI’s climb stalled at 4,902.11, just under its 2014 peak at 4,903.50. The index settled 0.08% lower on Wednesday however, ending the day at 4,870.21.
Recent price gap at 4,769 will be the first line of defense while the next one comes at 4,661.
The nearest resistance is seen at 4,917, ahead of 5,000 which is the psychological resistance and subsequently the projection target at 5,063.
A double-top formation is now forming on the JCI’s daily chart as the index backed off from taking out the peak at 4,903. Convincing breakout of this resistance is needed soon to negate the double-top formation. The valley at 4,661 is seen as the key support to confirm the double-top formation.
Volume ticked down, but MACD continued to move higher and managed to resurface above the zero line towards the positive area. RSI also inched higher.
Day Ahead
JCI was mixed on Wednesday as the advance stalled just below the recent peak at 4,903, but the door to return to 5K handle remains wide open. Overnight gains of the DJIA also provides additional support. Election is closing in and could trigger jitters among investors as the day gets closer and closer.
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