The Woe Factor
Held hostage by the political uncertainties, stocks fell across the board with all sectors ended in red. The JCI fell off to start the week on a wrong footing as it ended Monday’s session at 4,818.76.
Adding up to the woes was the FDI realization in 1Q14 which rose just 9.8% (year-on-year) to Rp72 trillion, much slower than the 25% growth seen in the prior quarter. BI governor Agus Martowardojo on Friday said that the slowdown was still in line with the central bank’s forecast and that the slowdown could be compensated by the robust growth of foreign portfolio investment (FPI).
Investors are anxiously await how the political uncertainties will be resolved. Jokowi, the PDI-P presidential candidate, is expected to announce his running mate as soon as this week.
USDIDR tumbled to 11,568 from 11,601 on Monday.
TLKM, PTBA
TLKM posted an 8.71% increase in revenues to Rp21,250 billion in 1Q14, bringing its net profit ex-minority interests to Rp3,649 billion, or up 4.95%. The telco giant’s assets grew 1.97% during the period (quarter-to-quarter) while the liabilities fell 5.11% (quarter-to-quarter).
PTBA saw its revenues were up 11.39% to Rp3,093,648 million in 1Q14, which translates to an 8.74% increase in net profit to Rp536,303 million. Assets and liabilities also grew by 4.05% and 22.31%, respectively from prior quarter.
Technically Speaking...
JCI fell 1.61% to start the week on the wrong foot. The index finished at 4,818.76, much lower than last Friday’s closing price.
Developing on the daily chart is the head-and-shoulders pattern with the neckline projected around 4,750 or just above the 50-day EMA. The left shoulder is at 4,903, the head at 4,933 and 4,916 is so far the right shoulder. Volume shows decreasing pattern from the left shoulder to the right one, adding credibility to the pattern.
JCI needs to break through the nearest resistance seen at 4,933 to negate the H&S pattern. Higher, subsequent resistances lie at 5,000 which is the psychological resistance and later the projection target at 5,063.
MACD declined, moving away from the zero line while the RSI curve continued to turn lower as the odds for deeper setback looms large.
Day Ahead
It’s clear that the market awaits how the political situation will develop ahead of the presidential election in July. FDI news has hammered sentiment somehow, but the fallout has been somewhat anticipated from the technical perspective. Earnings reports will flow more intense as we inch closer towards the end of the month.
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