DISCLAIMER

This research report is prepared by PT MINNA PADI INVESTAMA Tbk for information purposes only and are not to be used or considered as an offer or the solicitation of an offer to sell or to buy or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. The report has been prepared without regard to individual financial circumstance, need or objective of person to receive it. The securities discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors. The appropriateness of any particular investment or strategy whether opined on or referred to in this report or otherwise will depend on an investor’s individual circumstance and objective and should be independently evaluated and confirmed by such investor, and, if appropriate, with his professional advisers independently before adoption or implementation (either as is or varied).

Selasa, 01 April 2014

Morning Dew - 2 April 2014

Timid Inflation

Indonesia’s trade surplus was at US$785.3 million in February as exports increased 0.68% (mtm) to US$14.57bn while imports fell 7.58% (mtm) to US$13.78bn. Crude palm oil and cacao showed higher prices and better demand, supporting the surplus as other commodities continued to see declining prices.

March’s inflation was reportedly at 0.08%, way below February’s pace of 0.26% and also significantly slower than last year’s 0.63%. A drop in prices of food commodities coupled with stronger rupiah attributed to the slowing inflation in March. Year-on-year, March’s inflation slowed to 7.32% vs. 7.75% seen in February. Core inflation was at 0.21% (mtm) & 4.61% (yty).

Both trade data and March inflation sent JCI soaring to 4,873. Timid inflation means that BI will be less likely to raise rates again.

USDIDR fell to 11,271 from 11,404 on Tuesday.

SAME, CSAP

SAME posted a 24.42% increase in revenues to IDR336,511 million in 2013 vs. IDR270,468 in 2012 while net profit soared 100.47% to IDR46,649 million from IDR23,269 million seen in 2012. Assets and liabilities showed an increase of 29.88% and a drop of 9.91%, respectively in 2013. 

CSAP’s net profit jumped 24.03% in 2013 to IDR71,147 million vs. IDR57,365 million as revenues grew 28.23% to IDR6,438,747 million. Assets and liabilities were up by 23.71% and 28.28%, respectively.

Technically Speaking...

JCI is now within spitting distance to its 2014 peak at 4,903.50 as the index soared more than 2% on Tuesday, ending the day at 4,873.93.

Recent price gap at 4,769 will be the first line of defense while the next one comes at 4,661.

The nearest resistance is seen at 4,917, ahead of 5,000 which is the psychological resistance and subsequently the projection target at 5,063.
 
Volume started to kick up, while MACD took a u-turn and re-approaching the zero line towards the positive area. RSI has curled back up as the index jumped.
Steep jump risks gravity, but the door towards 5K remains widely open. Stay tune.
CSAP met its target price at 250, hence the recommendation has ended with 25% gains.

Day Ahead

Strong push higher on Tuesday risks to find gravity on Wednesday, but the door to return to 5K handle remains wide open. Overnight gains of the DJIA also provides additional support. Election is closing in and could trigger jitters among investors as the day gets closer and closer.

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