DISCLAIMER

This research report is prepared by PT MINNA PADI INVESTAMA Tbk for information purposes only and are not to be used or considered as an offer or the solicitation of an offer to sell or to buy or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. The report has been prepared without regard to individual financial circumstance, need or objective of person to receive it. The securities discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors. The appropriateness of any particular investment or strategy whether opined on or referred to in this report or otherwise will depend on an investor’s individual circumstance and objective and should be independently evaluated and confirmed by such investor, and, if appropriate, with his professional advisers independently before adoption or implementation (either as is or varied).

Rabu, 18 Juni 2014

Morning Dew - 19 June 2014

Fed Rate Unchanged

JCI has continued to struggle to hold on to its broken its support area around 4,865, driving the JCI back into the recent range between 4,865-4,911.

US Federal Reserve has reduced a further $10 billion of its monthly bond-buying program, taking the stimulus amount down to $35 billion. The Fed funds rate remains unchanged, as expected. No surprises from the meeting as the Fed maintains its course towards exiting its accommodative monetary policy.

Janet Yellen reiterated that the Fed will continue to reduce the pace of asset purchases while expecting interest rates to stay low for a considerable time (six months, perhaps?) after the stimulus is entirely removed. No specific timetable was given as she said that there is no mechanical formula for such thing.

USDIDR climbed higher to reach 11,978 on Wednesday, up from 11,863 a day earlier.

New Forecasts

Fed officials however, forecast that the interest rate will rise more rapidly once the first rate increase begins sometime next year.

By the end of 2015, Fed officials expects the rate at 1.13% and 2.5% a year after, higher than last March’s forecasts of 1% (end of 2015) and 2.25% (end of 2016).
Inflation remains below the Fed’s 2% objective as PCE index went up 1.6% in April while CPI gained 2.1% in May. PCE index has been considered as the Fed’s main gauge of inflation.

Technically Speaking...

JCI continues to move back and forth within its consolidation range between 4,865 and 5,091.

Resistance is now seen at 5k and subsequently at 5,091. Beyond the latter the index will aim at 5,251 – the all-time high seen last year.

Support is seen at 4,865 in the short-term, roughly around the same level as the 50-day EMA curve. Subsequent support lies at 4,800. 

MACD heads lower again after several failed attempts to return to above the zero line. RSI has also turned lower, heading towards the oversold area. 

No additional recommendation for now, and at the moment a total of 
seven recommendations are active and all of them are holding on.

Day Ahead

JCI is seen to continue consolidating between 4,865 and 5,091 for now as the market continues to wait for the upcoming presidential election on July 9th 2014. As US markets gained post the FOMC decision, JCI may also gain support from the rise. No big surprise from the Fed meeting will also clear the doubt among investors as no key short-term headwinds are seen at the moment.

Diposting oleh di 15.31
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