DISCLAIMER

This research report is prepared by PT MINNA PADI INVESTAMA Tbk for information purposes only and are not to be used or considered as an offer or the solicitation of an offer to sell or to buy or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. The report has been prepared without regard to individual financial circumstance, need or objective of person to receive it. The securities discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors. The appropriateness of any particular investment or strategy whether opined on or referred to in this report or otherwise will depend on an investor’s individual circumstance and objective and should be independently evaluated and confirmed by such investor, and, if appropriate, with his professional advisers independently before adoption or implementation (either as is or varied).

Senin, 23 Juni 2014

Morning Dew - 24 June 2014

Next Shoe to Drop

The fall deepened as the lack of positive catalysts have led investors to gradually exit the market ahead of the July 9th presidential election. The third debate between presidential hopefuls were aired on Sunday but there has been no decisive indication that any of the pairs are going to get a comfortable win.

Elsewhere, BUMI continues to fall as concerns heightened over the risk of the company default.  No approvals have been received from the bondholders to reschedule the company’s US$375 million debt set to due on August 5th. BTEL and ELTY have defaulted on their bonds payments last year, and without renegotiation of the bonds, BUMI may as well be the next one to default. Another source of funds will be issuance of new shares which will need extraordinary general meeting of shareholders which has been scheduled for later this month.

USDIDR ticked up to 11,971 on Monday, compared to 11,967 a day earlier.

China, US and Europe Data

China’s manufacturing PMI returned  above 50.00 mark in June. The index gained from 49.4 to 50.8, better than consensus of 49.7.

US manufacturing sector also improved in June as the PMI ticked up from 56.4 to 57.5, also better than the consensus of 56.0.

Existing home sales grew 4.9% in May (month-on-month) accelerated from 1.5% growth seen in April.

Conversely, European PMI were mostly down in June, hence leading the DAX and FTSE down.

Technically Speaking...

JCI continues its descent post breaking the 50-day EMA curve. It is now on course towards the next EMA support: the 100-day EMA at 4,775-4,780.

Prior 50-day EMA has turned into resistance at 4,870 while the next one lies at 4,909, followed by 5k and subsequently at 5,091. Beyond the latter the index will aim at 5,251 – the all-time high seen last year.

Next support is now seen at at 4,800 and 4,775-4,780 afterwards where the 100-day EMA lies.

MACD continued to tick down alongside RSI. Volume went up as the fall deepened, suggesting the intensity of the decline.

No additional recommendation for now.

Day Ahead

JCI has broken its lower bound of its consolidation range at 4,865. This could weaken the index further to 4,770-4,800 support area as lack of fresh catalysts caps the upside potential. Domestic political landscape continues to heat up ahead of the July 9th election day.

Diposting oleh di 15.08
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