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Minggu, 29 Juni 2014

Morning Dew - 30 June 2014

Stuck In A Rut

JCI caught in another setback on Friday as the index continues to get stuck in a rut within a familiar range.

With just less than two weeks, the presidential election will become the key theme in July. The more market friendly Jokowi-JK remains as favorite despite the pair’s electability has been declining recently. It’s going to be a close call this time.

Elsewhere in the U.S., the index of consumer confidence from the University of Michigan has ticked up in June from 81.2 to 82.5, slightly better than the consensus of 82.0. 

The coming week will also feature the nonfarm payrolls data for June, which is expected to fall from 217k to 210k. Unemployment rate which is also set for release next Friday is expected to stay at 6.3% in June.

USDIDR remains on the ascend as the pair reached 12,103 per US$, up from 12,091 per US$.

Data Ahead

Trade balance data for May is expected to show a surplus of US$15 billion against the prior period which showed a deficit of US$1.96 billion.

June inflation is also seen faster at 9% (YoY) compared to 7.32% seen in May, while the month-on-month inflation is also gaining pace from 0.16% to 0.56% in June.

Manufacturing PMI is expected to show an uptick to 52.4 in June from 51.21 in prior month.

All the above data is set for release next Tuesday.

Technically Speaking...

JCI continued to fluctuate within its consolidation range between 4,775-4,909 after being knocked on Wednesday.

Prior 50-day EMA has turned into resistance at 4,870 while the next one lies at 4,909, followed by 5k and subsequently at 5,091. Beyond the latter the index will aim at 5,251 – the all-time high seen last year.

Next support is now seen at 4,800 and 4,775-4,780 afterwards where the 100-day EMA lies.

MACD inched slightly higher but still below the zero line while RSI has continued to seesaw near the neutral zone. Volume slipped a bit.

Week Ahead

JCI is seen to continue trading within the confine of its consolidation range as the market essentially awaiting for the upcoming July 9th presidential election. USDIDR remains weak as BI seems to be tolerating the current weakness. Several key data are set for release on Tuesday, but all eyes will be focusing on the election instead.

Diposting oleh di 10.25
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