DISCLAIMER

This research report is prepared by PT MINNA PADI INVESTAMA Tbk for information purposes only and are not to be used or considered as an offer or the solicitation of an offer to sell or to buy or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. The report has been prepared without regard to individual financial circumstance, need or objective of person to receive it. The securities discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors. The appropriateness of any particular investment or strategy whether opined on or referred to in this report or otherwise will depend on an investor’s individual circumstance and objective and should be independently evaluated and confirmed by such investor, and, if appropriate, with his professional advisers independently before adoption or implementation (either as is or varied).

Senin, 02 Juni 2014

Morning Dew - 3 June 2014

Trade Fell, Inflation Ticked Up

Inflation was reported at 0.16% (month-on-month) in May 2014 while on annual basis the figure was at 7.32%. The market consensus forecast MoM figure between 0.09% to 0.1%. Year-to-date, inflation now stands at 1.56%. Behind the higher-than-consensus reading were higher prices in housing, water, electricity, gas and fuels component and the processed foods, beverages, cigarettes, and tobacco component.

Trade balance worsened in April 2014 to US$1.97 billion  as crude oil exports were declining by 26.7%. Exports were down 2.63% (MoM) while imports rose 11.9% (MoM).  On annual basis, imports fell 1.3%.

BTEL has been downgraded to  Restricted Default by Fitch.  The downgrade was led by the unsecured default on a coupon payment in November 2013 and no subsequent coupon payment or public announcement  over the progress of the company’s debt restructuring with its creditors. Fitch assigned RR5 on the company’s recovery rating, down from RR4. RR5 reflected a drop in enterprise value of business with EBITDA is expected to drop to between IDR600 billion and IDR700 billion from IDR911 billion (2013).

USDIDR fell slightly on Thursday to 11,740 from 11,611.

U.S. ISM

US manufacturing PMI ticked up to 55.4 from 54.9 in May. The Markit manufacturing PMI also showed acceleration on the sector from 56.2 to 56.4. Figures above 50 mark expansion while below 50 mark contraction.

US construction spending inched 0.2% higher in April (MoM) from the prior month, much slower than the consensus take which forecast a 0.7% increase.

Technically Speaking...

JCI bounced to end Monday back above 4,900 after a steep fall last Friday.

Resistance is now seen at 5k and subsequently at 5,091. Beyond the latter the index will aim at 5,251 – the all-time high seen last year.

Support is seen at 4,865 in the short-term and 4,800 afterwards.

MACD continues to fall deeper below the zero line while RSI also slipping towards the neutral zone after spending some time near the 70% mark. Volume is expected to be thin throughout the week due to holidays on Tuesday and Thursday.

No additional recommendation for now, and at the moment a total of seven recommendations are active and all of them are holding on.

Day Ahead

JCI is seen consolidating between 4,865 and 5,091 for now as the market continues to wait for the upcoming presidential election on July 9th 2014. Domestic data was mixed with inflation under control but trade data worse than expected. US manufacturing data shows expansion is accelerating, supporting the Dow near record high, thereby giving support to Asia regional stock indexes.

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