DISCLAIMER

This research report is prepared by PT MINNA PADI INVESTAMA Tbk for information purposes only and are not to be used or considered as an offer or the solicitation of an offer to sell or to buy or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. The report has been prepared without regard to individual financial circumstance, need or objective of person to receive it. The securities discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors. The appropriateness of any particular investment or strategy whether opined on or referred to in this report or otherwise will depend on an investor’s individual circumstance and objective and should be independently evaluated and confirmed by such investor, and, if appropriate, with his professional advisers independently before adoption or implementation (either as is or varied).

Minggu, 20 Oktober 2013

Morning Dew - October 21st 2013

Key Points
The Guessing Game
  • As the political drama in Washington came to an end, attention will be shifted towards the guessing game over when the Federal Reserve will start tapering the monetary stimulus.
  • Another issue to face will be the earnings season in the US and some domestically. As earnings mostly concern with individual corporate performances, the impact will be most likely limited.
  • FOMC’s move in October is rather unlikely at the moment. That is, if they stick to their own words that their decision will be data-dependent. So far, September payroll data has yet to be released while October data is bound to get distorted by the impact of shutdown. A move in December may also be too close to the end of Bernanke’s terms at the Fed whereas January and February may be too close to another budget fight. This situation will keep investors guessing for when the tapering will start.
China’s 3Q Growth Rebounded
  • 3Q13 GDP grew 7.8% vs. 3Q12 after hitting 7.5% in 2Q13, in line with consensus.
  • Growth may owe itself to boost in government spending as consistency is questioned.
  • Retail sales grew faster in September at 13.3% (YoY) vs. 13.4% in August, industrial production also slowed from 10.4% in August (YoY) to 10.2%. 

Technically Speaking...
  • JCI managed to end the week above its key EMA resistance, hence the outlook brightened as a move towards 4,900 is expected. Before that however, the index is about to face its prior high resistance at 4,791 (Sept 19th).
  • Prior EMA resistance has now turned as support and so the nearest support will be at 4,520, followed by the lower end of the EMA band at 4,444.
  • Friday’s rise was accompanied by rising volume as well as MACD inching higher. RSI has climbed pretty fast approaching 70%. Overall, the outlook based on these indicators has once again turned positive.
  • ADHI and ROTI have been added to the pool of recommended trades. Please see the table below for the details of the setups.

Week Ahead


As the dust from budget impasse has been cleared, the market will be re-focusing itself towards fundamentals and the Fed. Earnings season in the U.S. will influence individual stocks. Domestically, some companies will start reporting as well. One of high profile releases next week will be the delayed nonfarm payrolls which is due in Tuesday. Monday however, US existing home sales for September is set for release.


Diposting oleh di 10.22
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