Short on Expectations
- Payrolls came short of expectations in September. After an August gains of 193k, September saw only 148k gains in payrolls. Unemployment rate was at 7.2%, which is best reading since November 2008. Payrolls number trailed the consensus of 180k.
- Less than expected payrolls number turned out to be supporting stocks as the Federal Reserve will have to wait for firmer string of data.
- The next release of payrolls data has been pushed back to Nov 8 from the originally scheduled Nov 1 as a result of recent shutdown. Meanwhile, the FOMC will hold its meeting on Oct 29-30, but the market is now factoring in Fed’s tapering to start on March 18-19 next year instead.
US Earnings Update
- So far, 138 companies have reported an average growth of 5.5% in earnings while sales have been reported growing by 2.3%.
- Of these companies, 72% managed to beat consensus in terms of profit while 54% have beaten sales estimates.
- While the Dow claws its way up, the wider S&P 500 index is closing in to its best annual gain in a decade to 1,754.67 (+0.6%).
Technically Speaking...
- JCI slipped back to end inside the EMA band on Tuesday, hitting the intraday low at 4,499. The index was nowhere near its Monday’s high at 4,585, hence putting its move towards 4,791 (Sept. high) en route to 4,900 on hold for now.
- Prior high at 4,585 remains as resistance, followed by 4,791 and 4,900 while the nearest support will be at the lower end of the EMA band at 4,444.
- Indicators took a u-turn as volume slipped, MACD ticked down while RSI turned lower after it approached 70% area earlier, the area considered to be overbought.
- ADHI and ROTI were filled, which means now there are seven active recos.
Day Ahead
Less impressive NFP figure turned to be a positive catalyst as the FOMC will have to wait for more convincing string of jobs data before considering to start removing its stimulus. JCI is expected to bounce off its yesterday’s low this Wednesday.
Tidak ada komentar:
Posting Komentar