DISCLAIMER

This research report is prepared by PT MINNA PADI INVESTAMA Tbk for information purposes only and are not to be used or considered as an offer or the solicitation of an offer to sell or to buy or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. The report has been prepared without regard to individual financial circumstance, need or objective of person to receive it. The securities discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors. The appropriateness of any particular investment or strategy whether opined on or referred to in this report or otherwise will depend on an investor’s individual circumstance and objective and should be independently evaluated and confirmed by such investor, and, if appropriate, with his professional advisers independently before adoption or implementation (either as is or varied).

Selasa, 15 Oktober 2013

Morning Dew - 15 October 2013

Key Points

 DEAL or NO DEAL?
  • US lawmakers failed to reach a deal on the borrowing limit as Oct. 17th deadline looms large. Previously, a deal was being worked on which will suspend the debt limit through Feb 7th, 2014. The government will be funded through Jan 15th while setting up House-Senate budget conference by Dec 13th.
  • While there is some time left, should everything else still fails, the government will be out of cash by Oct 17th, start to miss payments between Oct 22nd and Oct 31st, something that will crush the integrity of US as well as the dollar.
  • One of the proposed points was the reinsurance fees. The fees worth $63 per worker on health plans scheduled for next year will be postponed as requested by labor unions.
China’s Data Due
  • Third Quarter GDP data will be released this Friday, with YoY growth seen at 7.8% in 3Q13, up from 7.5%. From prior quarter, GDP is seen up 2.1%, compared to 1.7% recorded in prior quarter.
  • Industrial production growth is seen slowing to 10.2% in September after a 10.4% increase in prior month.
  • Retail sales is also expected to improve to 13.5% from 13.4% in September.
Technically Speaking...
  • JCI is still struggling to break through the EMA resistance at around 4,530. A successful break will open up a way towards 4,900 price objective.
  • Both MACD and RSI are showing signs of turnaround, but still need a stronger push to secure a bullish potential. Despite sluggish advance on the price side, volume has been rising steadily.
  • Support is nearest at 4,425, around the 50-day EMA, followed by 4,357/58 (double-bottom support) and a more crucial one at 4,313/14 (double-bottom). If we sink below 4,313/14, we risk another bearish round towards 4,207.
  • Resistance will be at 4,543 (pre-holiday high), followed by 4,792 (Sept high). Beyond the latter we may see 4,900.
  • The fall in DJIA overnight suggests that we’re tilted towards the downside, somehow confirming the exhaustion pattern on the JCI’s daily chart.
Day Ahead

The failure to reach an agreement in Washington is seen as negative on Asian markets. Stocks are expected to slip back, but any signs of an agreement is to be reached could turn the stocks back up. JCI is cautiously bearish for this Wednesday.

Diposting oleh di 14.31
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