DISCLAIMER

This research report is prepared by PT MINNA PADI INVESTAMA Tbk for information purposes only and are not to be used or considered as an offer or the solicitation of an offer to sell or to buy or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. The report has been prepared without regard to individual financial circumstance, need or objective of person to receive it. The securities discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors. The appropriateness of any particular investment or strategy whether opined on or referred to in this report or otherwise will depend on an investor’s individual circumstance and objective and should be independently evaluated and confirmed by such investor, and, if appropriate, with his professional advisers independently before adoption or implementation (either as is or varied).

Kamis, 17 Oktober 2013

Morning Dew - October 18th 2013

Key Points
Business, as Usual
  • US borrowing authority is extended until Feb 7th. Until then, the Treasury Dept. will keep using its ‘extraordinary measures’ to avoid default should the Congress does not raise the debt ceiling by that date.
  • Federal spending at current levels are set to be extended until Jan 15th. Sequestration / across-the-board cuts are maintained.
  • House-Senate panel to be formed to try reducing long-term-deficit that could be approved by the full Congress. The panel will have to complete this by Dec 13th. Given the great divide between House and Senate, such result is bound to be elusive.
  • Measures to attempt to prevent federal subsidies from being paid are established. The targets are the people whose incomes are eligible.
  • Furloughed federal workers’ wages during the shutdown will be receiving back pay.
Earnings and the Fed
  • As the political drama came to an end (for now), the market will shift its attention back to the Federal Reserve as well as the ongoing earnings season.
  • Dow’s weakness came as Goldman Sachs and IBM delivered results which came in below the expectations.  On the contrary,  S&P index surged to record highs.
  • Debt impasse is seen to put Fed’s tapering on hold.

Technically Speaking...
  • JCI is still struggling to break through the EMA resistance at around 4,530. Despite it managed to set an intraday high at 4,550.54 during the Thursday session, the gains failed to hold and it trimmed its gains to settle at 4,518.93. A successful break however, will open up a way towards 4,900 price objective.
  • Support is nearest at 4,425, around the 50-day EMA, followed by 4,357/58 (double-bottom support) and a more crucial one at 4,313/14 (double-bottom). If we sink below 4,313/14, we risk another bearish round towards 4,207.
  • Resistance will be at 4,550 (Thursday high), followed by 4,792 (Sept high). Beyond the latter we may see 4,900.
  • Dow might be weak, but S&P index has scored another record high. It is likely that the index will attempt once more in breaking through the resistances and reaches its price objective at 4,900.
  • MDLN also managed to meet its price objective at 850. The reco has been removed from the pool with gains of 25% (see the table below for details).
Day Ahead

As the shutdown issue has been set aside for now, the market will return to fundamentals and earnings. JCI is seen mixed with positive bias. Last day of the week may cap volume.

Diposting oleh di 14.59
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