DISCLAIMER

This research report is prepared by PT MINNA PADI INVESTAMA Tbk for information purposes only and are not to be used or considered as an offer or the solicitation of an offer to sell or to buy or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. The report has been prepared without regard to individual financial circumstance, need or objective of person to receive it. The securities discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors. The appropriateness of any particular investment or strategy whether opined on or referred to in this report or otherwise will depend on an investor’s individual circumstance and objective and should be independently evaluated and confirmed by such investor, and, if appropriate, with his professional advisers independently before adoption or implementation (either as is or varied).

Senin, 21 Oktober 2013

Morning Dew - October 22nd 2013

Key Points
Eyes on Payrolls
  • The next big thing in the market will be the release of the delayed non-farm payrolls data. No distorted data is expected for the September period, but the October data also set to be released soon will be distorted by the effects of US government shutdown.
  • September payrolls data is expected to show an addition of 180k workers during that period, compared to 169k added in August. 
  • Late receipts of key data are seen holding the Federal Reserve back on their anticipated tapering of stimulus. A move in October is now highly unlikely as the Fed will not want to decide over a distorted data set. If it’s three months of normal data to be based on, it points at February, but budget fight will be replayed by that time so it looks like no tapering to happen this year. More likely will be a quarter or two after Janet Yellen succeeds Ben Bernanke as the Fed chief. 
US Earnings Season
  • Profits are forecast to increase on an average of 2.5% for all companies in the S&P 500, up from 1.7% gains expected earlier this month.
  • So far, for 108 companies that have reported their earnings, the average gains in earnings is 4.5% while sales at 2.1%.
  • From these 108 companies, 70% managed to beat profit forecasts while 54% have exceeded sales expectations.

Technically Speaking...
  • JCI continued to march above its 100-and-200-day-EMA as it aims towards 4,900. Before that however, the index is about to face its prior high resistance at 4,791 (Sept 19th).
  • Prior EMA resistance has now turned as support and so the nearest support will be at 4,520, followed by the lower end of the EMA band at 4,444.
  • Positive outlook maintained by the indicators as volume continued to rise, MACD still ticked up while RSI has been flattening as it approaches 70%, the area considered to be overbought. 
  • ADHI and ROTI are still waiting on the sidelines for their fillings.

Day Ahead

Simply all about fundamentals and earnings, with a little bit of Fed’s guessing game. Fundamentals on the release of nonfarm payrolls data, and earnings releases from S&P 500 companies in the U.S.



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