DISCLAIMER

This research report is prepared by PT MINNA PADI INVESTAMA Tbk for information purposes only and are not to be used or considered as an offer or the solicitation of an offer to sell or to buy or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. The report has been prepared without regard to individual financial circumstance, need or objective of person to receive it. The securities discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors. The appropriateness of any particular investment or strategy whether opined on or referred to in this report or otherwise will depend on an investor’s individual circumstance and objective and should be independently evaluated and confirmed by such investor, and, if appropriate, with his professional advisers independently before adoption or implementation (either as is or varied).

Kamis, 09 Oktober 2014

Morning Dew - 10 October 2014

Seeing Red

JCI continued its close track on the US stock indexes’ movement on Thursday, scoring gains after getting slammed a day earlier. While we have a green day on Thursday, unfortunately if the recent behavior continues this Friday, we are staring at another fall off the cliff.

US stocks’ yo-yo run had S&P500 index produced a 1.5% plunge on October 7th, but on the 8th it scored a comeback with a solid 1.8% gains. Overnight however, the S&P crashed 2.1% while the Dow nosedived 1.97%. And we definitely know what to expect this Friday morning in Asia, don’t we?

USDIDR was slightly lower at 12,190 on Thursday compared to 12,241 seen on Wednesday.

Elswhere, Karisma Aksara has decided to postpone its plan to go public this year. No further details on this issue. Originally, the company planned to offer its shares at Rp175-240 per share, aiming at gaining Rp93.7b to Rp128.6b for expansion and debt repayment purposes.

The Roadmap

Recent rollercoaster ride of US stocks has dragged the global stocks along with it, including the JCI. We see various factors blamed for such behavior. From the Fed’s stance, the Ebola, IMF’s frothy stocks theory, global geopolitical tensions, jobs report, Europe’s growth expectation, and a myriad of other factors. 

We have our own roadmap on this. We see the Fed will end its bond-purchasing program this year, most likely in October. A six-month pause will be used by the Fed to prepare the market while monitoring macro factors such as jobs outlook as well as inflation. Fast forward, we will arrive in April when the six-month hiatus ends, staring at the Fed ready to pull the rate-hike trigger.

Technically Speaking...

Yo-yo behavior took the index back up but short of returning above 5k mark.

Downside, we are staring at the risk of deeper selloff towards the 200-day EMA at around 4,885, with interim supports lie at 5,000 (psychological) and 4,933 (recent trough).

On the upside, the psychological level of 5k will be the first hurdle, while 5,100 is the next resistance, followed by 5,150, 5,200 and another one at 5,251, ahead of the all-time record high at 5,262. 

The MACD ticked higher, moving back towards the zero line while the RSI hovers around the oversold area. Volume has been stable so far.

Day Ahead

Not much to say as we obviously see a big pool of red this Friday after the Dow ended almost 2% down or more than 300 points drop overnight. Domestic negative catalysts also will put a check on the JCI’s potential strength after yesterday’s rally. Fasten your seat belt for another rollercoaster ride!

Diposting oleh di 14.50
Label:

Tidak ada komentar:

Posting Komentar

Langganan: Posting Komentar (Atom)