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This research report is prepared by PT MINNA PADI INVESTAMA Tbk for information purposes only and are not to be used or considered as an offer or the solicitation of an offer to sell or to buy or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. The report has been prepared without regard to individual financial circumstance, need or objective of person to receive it. The securities discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors. The appropriateness of any particular investment or strategy whether opined on or referred to in this report or otherwise will depend on an investor’s individual circumstance and objective and should be independently evaluated and confirmed by such investor, and, if appropriate, with his professional advisers independently before adoption or implementation (either as is or varied).

Senin, 13 Oktober 2014

Morning Dew - 14 October 2014

The Awakening

JCI was off to a poor start as the week opened with another drop, sending the index closer to the 4,900 handle. Poor domestic sentiment coupled with sliding US stocks have somewhat awakened the bear.

We expect the index to trade between 4,895 and 5,035 in the short-term while market will keep searching for fresh positive catalyst to jump back into action.

On the global front, the US stocks continued its poor performance overnight, with the Dow slipped again for more than 200 points and S&P500 fell below its 200-day moving average. In the commodities market, oil continues to fall after last week it entered the bear market. Recent comment from the Fed’s Stanley Fischer has cast concern that the Fed may delay the timing of interest rate hike should the global economy slowing down.

USDIDR was slightly lower at 12,202 compared to 12,207 seen on Friday.

APLN, CTRP, HERO

APLN booked marketing sales of Rp3.53T during first nine months of 2014.  Harco Glodok and Orchard Park Batam have contributed 25.7% and 24.8%, respectively.  Other key contributions came from Podomoro City Extension (13.1%) and Plaza Kenari Mas (6.5%).

CTRP expands to budget hotel business in several areas in Indonesia. Through its subsidiary, Ciputra Hospitality, two budget hotels are already operational in Cirebon and Semarang. Within the next three years there are 30 budget hotels that are to be built around the country, costing about Rp1.5T.

HERO is about to open the first IKEA store in Indonesia in Alam Sutera this mid-October.

Technically Speaking...

Another fall took the index closer to the 4,900 handle as the weakness persists.

Downside, we are staring at the risk of deeper selloff towards the 200-day EMA at around 4,895, with subsequent support area at 4,835-4,840 (prior congestion area).

On the upside, the psychological level of 5k will be the first hurdle, while 5,100 is the next resistance, followed by 5,150, 5,200 and another one at 5,251, ahead of the all-time record high at 5,262. 

The MACD turned lower, moving away from the zero line while the RSI languishes around the oversold area. Volume ticked lower on Monday.

ADRO has been removed from the reco list as it fell below the stop level.

Day Ahead

On the menu we got weak US stocks overnight, we got Ebola scare, recent IMF’s warning of frothy stock valuations, concerns over domestic political dynamics, persistently weak Rupiah, and vulnerable technical outlook of the JCI. With hardly any positive catalysts around we expect the JCI to take another beating on Tuesday, probably pushing it even closer to 4,835-4,840.

Diposting oleh di 14.40
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