DISCLAIMER

This research report is prepared by PT MINNA PADI INVESTAMA Tbk for information purposes only and are not to be used or considered as an offer or the solicitation of an offer to sell or to buy or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. The report has been prepared without regard to individual financial circumstance, need or objective of person to receive it. The securities discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors. The appropriateness of any particular investment or strategy whether opined on or referred to in this report or otherwise will depend on an investor’s individual circumstance and objective and should be independently evaluated and confirmed by such investor, and, if appropriate, with his professional advisers independently before adoption or implementation (either as is or varied).

Sabtu, 11 Oktober 2014

Morning Dew - 13 October 2014

Bear Season

As expected, the JCI saw another red on Friday, tracking the losses of US equities. Barely any positive catalysts were present at the moment, while negative catalysts were abound.

Political woes from the domestic side has made investors’ appetite turned sour as the market is wondering whether the next government will be able to work smoothly without getting harassed.

On the external side, the end of Fed’s tapering campaign looms large as October may be the end of Fed’s bond-buying program. The Fed is expected to cool down for about six months before embarking on a “rate normalization” step by raising the Fed funds rate sometime mid-2015. Ebola scare, recent French’s credit outlook downgrade, dire outlook of EU economy, IMF’s warning of frothy stock valuations, as well as geopolitical tensions, all have dogged  JCI’s performance.

Meanwhile, USDIDR was up at 12,207 on Friday compared to 12,190 seen on Thursday.

SMGR, MICE

SMGR is eyeing expansion to the property business by developing a 450ha land in Gresik, East Java. The company plans to build a residential and recreational area including the construction of cement museum and recreational park. For this purpose, the company will join up with WIKA and some other state-owned construction companies.

MICE is set to pay the final cash dividend for FY13 on November 14th. The amount to be paid will be Rp6b or equal to Rp10 per share. Recording date is set for Nov 3rd 2014, with cum and ex dividend for regular and negotiation market set for 29th and 30th Oct 2014, respectively. Cum and ex for cash market is set for 3 and 4 Nov 2014, respectively.

Technically Speaking...

JCI remains vulnerable as it slipped back on Friday, taking it farther from the 5k mark.

Downside, we are staring at the risk of deeper selloff towards the 200-day EMA at around 4,895, with subsequent support area at 4,835-4,840 (prior congestion area).

On the upside, the psychological level of 5k will be the first hurdle, while 5,100 is the next resistance, followed by 5,150, 5,200 and another one at 5,251, ahead of the all-time record high at 5,262. 

The MACD ticked higher, moving back towards the zero line while the RSI hovers around the oversold area. Volume ticked down on Friday.

Week Ahead

After a stormy week, we expect the coming week will be somewhat cooler. The JCI is seen gyrating between 4,895 and 5,035 the area between the 100-day and 200-day EMA with potential additional room on the upside at 5,090 (50-day EMA). The market will put a close watch on the external factors such as Ebola, geopolitics in Ukraine and mid-East, as well as domestic front, especially on the next cabinet composition.

Diposting oleh di 10.55
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