The Game Changer
JCI rebounded after initially fell on Tuesday. The index eventually gained 0.2%, but the outlook remains vulnerable right now.
We expect the index to trade between 4,895 and 5,035 in the short-term while market will keep searching for fresh positive catalyst to jump back into action. One major domestic event will be the announcement of the new cabinet by Jokowi. A solid and convincing cabinet composition could be the game changer for JCI as this will be seen as proof how far Jokowi is going to compromise with the current political situation.
US stocks trimmed gains overnight after early gains were hampered by falling energy stocks. International Energy Agency recently cut the demand growth forecast for 2015 by 100k barrels a day to 1.1 million. For this year, oil consumption will rise by about 650k barrels a day, 250k less than earlier estimate, IEA said.
USDIDR slipped to end lower at 12,195 compared to 12,202 seen on Friday.
HITS, BBRM, RAJA
HITS revenues were up 14.76% to US$31.73 million in the first 6 months of 2014 vs. US$27.65 million booked a year ago. Profit for the period however, were down from US$2.25 million to US$503.59k.
BBRM’s nine-month revenues were lower at US$25.03 million compared to last year’s US$27.13 million. Net profit attributable to owners were down to US$534.83k from US$4.76 million last year.
RAJA aims at net profit of US$7.68 million this year and US$9.50 million next year. Revenues are expected to reach US$200.35 million this year while next year to reach US$245.74 million as volume of gas sales from subsidiary rises.
Technically Speaking...
JCI took a breather on Tuesday after repeatedly battered during recent sessions. The index fell briefly to test the 200-day EMA at 4,900 before it bounced and settled slightly higher.
Downside, the 200-day EMA at around 4,900 will be the near-term cushion for the JCI, while subsequent support area lies at 4,835-4,840 (prior congestion area).
On the upside, the psychological level of 5k will be the first hurdle, while 5,100 is the next resistance, followed by 5,150, 5,200 and another one at 5,251, ahead of the all-time record high at 5,262.
The MACD ticked higher, but still struggling below the zero line. The RSI languishes around the oversold area but started to get flat. Volume was slightly higher on Tuesday.
Day Ahead
Despite bouncing US stocks and a breather from the domestic side, the outlook for JCI remains vulnerable, especially on the technical point of view. With hardly any positive catalysts around we expect the JCI to remain at risk on Wednesday, but probably going to stabilize around 4,900-5,000 area.
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