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Senin, 20 Oktober 2014

Morning Dew - 21 October 2014

The 7th

The inauguration day of the new president Joko Widodo and the new vice-president Jusuf Kalla went smoothly on Monday. Such enthusiasm of the people could be a sign of better times ahead, while not necessarily immediate.

Nevertheless, the JCI scored an intraday high at 5,101.21 but could not hold on to its gains and slipped to end at 5,040.53, up 0.23% for the day. 

After the inauguration day, the next thing on the watchlist is the names of the ministers of Jokowi’s cabinet. It is likely to be announced as soon as Tuesday. The market response will be the key to the next path of the JCI. A friendly list will help the JCI to weather the upcoming challenges such as the impact of an upcoming fuel price hike and also the influence of the coming of a higher interest rate environment triggered by the US Federal Reserve policy.
USDIDR fell to 12,041 from Friday’s close of 12,222.

Earnings Season

LINK booked revenues of Rp1.55t in 9M14, up 28.2% from 9M13 which recorded revenues of Rp1.20t.

HOME incurred Rp4.52b of losses in 9M14 against gains booked in 9M13 worth Rp1.82b. Revenues fell to Rp38.86b from Rp42.82b while expenses were up from Rp24.74b to Rp27.7b.

MDRN signed strategic partnership with CIMB Private Equity worth US$25 million as the Malaysian company acquired a minority stake through newly issued shares representing 10% of the existing share capital of MDRN.

BSDE booked marketing sales worth Rp5t, completing 83% of the target sales for this year.

Technically Speaking...

JCI  briefly reached 5,101.21 on Monday but the rally fizzled as the index eventually settled at 5,040.53, up 0.2% for the day but a disappointing close as it lost around 1% from Monday’s open.

Downside, the 200-day EMA at around 4,900 will be the near-term cushion for the JCI, while subsequent support area lies at 4,835-4,840 (prior congestion area).

On the upside, 5,100 is the next resistance, followed by 5,150, 5,200 and another one at 5,251, ahead of the all-time record high at 5,262. 

The MACD continued to tick higher, finally arriving above zero line. The RSI has started to curl back up and headed back towards the overbought area.

We expect the upside potential remains intact on Tuesday and we could see the index heads back toward 5,100 and possibly all the way to 5,150.

Day Ahead

Tuesday is seen flat to mildly positive as euphoria over Jokowi’s inauguration day dims. The next hurdle for the JCI now will be the announcement of the names of Jokowi’s ministers. Jokowi is expected to announce the names soon sometime this week. Still, the new government may start on a rough side of the road as fuel prices may rise sometime between November or December. 

Diposting oleh di 14.17
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