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Senin, 15 Desember 2014

Morning Dew - 16 December 2014

Return to 1998

Global rout continues on Monday as major stock indexes around the world were mostly down. JCI as expected, tracked the losses in global indexes seen on Friday and tumbled 1%. In addition, IDR revisited the low of 1998 as the ailing currency resumes its decline.

USDIDR started the week stronger, reaching 12,599 per US$ vs. Friday’s 12,432. Anticipation of higher rates in the US as well as US$ demand for debt repayments are cited as behind the recent downturn.

Oil prices remain vulnerable as Brent fell 2.3% to end at $60.45 a barrel. The global benchmark is seen falling to as low as $50 a barrel next year, according to Bloomberg survey. Meanwhile, WTI oil fell 4.48% to end at $55.22 a barrel.

Continuous rout in oil prices will put a challenge on the FOMC’s plan to raise rates sometime in 2015. It will also pose a challenge to the recent government’s decision to raise prices of subsidized fuel in Indonesia.

AKKU, GZCO, CTRS, KDSI

AKKU: is planning to conduct a private placement for about 23 million shares with the price being offered at Rp320 per share. This translates to a proceeds of Rp7.36bn.

GZCO: aims at an increase of 20% in sales worth Rp600bn in 2015. By the end of 3Q14 the company has reached Rp366bn, higher than Rp265bn in 3Q13 or up 38%. Full year 2014 revenues is seen at Rp500bn.

CTRS: is confident to be able to reach the 2014 target sales of Rp650bn. This year revenues came in mostly from CitraLand, CitraLand Utara and the Green Lake.

KDSI: is looking for 15-20% growth of revenues in 2015 vs. 2014.

Technically Speaking...

JCI started the week on a weak footing as the JCI fell 1%.

Should the index fails to follow through the recent gains, it will risk returning to the bottom end of the recent consolidation range around 4,900.

We have seen a test of 5,200 resistance, but successful breakout remains elusive. 

Beyond 5,200, the subsequent resistance will be at 5,251, ahead of the all-time record high at 5,262. 

MACD has re-entered the sub-zero line while the RSI remains stuck near the neutral area. This suggests that while the index is steady, the risk of slipping further remains as indicated by MACD. 

The week will offer similar trading range for the JCI, between 5,000 and 5,250. As the upside remains sluggish, the downside risk cannot be ruled out.

Day Ahead

As expected, the JCI started the week on a weak footing. For Tuesday, expect the index to still face pressure as the Europe and US came down again overnight on the back of more oil slump. IDR is also facing strong pressure and is now back to a level of 12,599, something unseen since 1998. A range between  5,000 to 5,250 is seen for the current week.

Diposting oleh di 14.20
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