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This research report is prepared by PT MINNA PADI INVESTAMA Tbk for information purposes only and are not to be used or considered as an offer or the solicitation of an offer to sell or to buy or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. The report has been prepared without regard to individual financial circumstance, need or objective of person to receive it. The securities discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors. The appropriateness of any particular investment or strategy whether opined on or referred to in this report or otherwise will depend on an investor’s individual circumstance and objective and should be independently evaluated and confirmed by such investor, and, if appropriate, with his professional advisers independently before adoption or implementation (either as is or varied).

Kamis, 04 Desember 2014

Morning Dew - 5 December 2014

European QE

European equities fell sharply on Thursday after the ECB President Mario Draghi said that assessment on whether additional stimulus is needed or not will have to wait for the next quarter. The comment has dashed market hopefuls which expected such measures to be delivered sooner rather than later.  

In addition, Draghi also warned of the risk of deflationary spiral as prices fall continues and that economic outlook has been downgraded to GDP growth of 0.8% in 2014 and 1% next year vs. 1.1% (2014) and 1.6% (2015). Inflation is now expected at 0.5% (2014) and 0.7% (2015) vs. 1.1% (2014). Following the comment however, two ECB officials were reportedly saying that such stimulus proposal is expected to be considered next month. The proposal involves broad-based asset purchases, including sovereign debt.

JCI was close to break through 5,200 mark but it settled at 5,177, trimming some of its gains.

USDIDR  continues to head north as it settled the Thursday’s session at 12,318 vs. 12,295  yesterday.

BNGA, BKSL

BNGA: 4Q14 net profit is expected above Rp3tn, vs. 3Q14 net profit of Rp2.3tn. Last quarter, the net profit fell 28.5% (yoy). Credit growth is expected to be around 15%, slightly below the OJK’s guidance of 15-17%. By the end of September, credit growth reached Rp166.84tn, up 7.3 (yoy).

BSKL: 11M14 marketing sales have reached Rp1.45tn or equal to sales of 1,328 units. This however, represents just 72% of total target set for this year which is at Rp2tn.

Technically Speaking...

JCI stays on track to breach its all-time high as it continues to stay close enough near the record high of 5,262.

Should the index fails to follow through the recent gains, it will risk returning to the bottom end of the recent consolidation range around 4,900.

We have seen a test of 5,200 resistance, but successful breakout remains elusive. Beyond 5,200, the subsequent resistance will be at 5,251, ahead of the all-time record high at 5,262. 

While MACD ticked lower but remains stable, RSI has reached the overbought area.

Overall however, the fluctuation is expected to remain within the familiar trading range between 5,000-5,250 on Friday.

Day Ahead

New month but hardly any potential surprises on the news front. The next big thing possibly the release of US nonfarm payrolls. Still, the data may not be able to derail the FOMC from entering higher interest rate environment in mid-2015. Domestic calm may put the JCI stable around 5,000-5,262, but with upside bias as the index maintains its chance to set a new record high. European QE may be on the cards now, but the impact on the JCI’s fluctuation tends to be very much limited.

Diposting oleh di 14.53
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