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This research report is prepared by PT MINNA PADI INVESTAMA Tbk for information purposes only and are not to be used or considered as an offer or the solicitation of an offer to sell or to buy or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. The report has been prepared without regard to individual financial circumstance, need or objective of person to receive it. The securities discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors. The appropriateness of any particular investment or strategy whether opined on or referred to in this report or otherwise will depend on an investor’s individual circumstance and objective and should be independently evaluated and confirmed by such investor, and, if appropriate, with his professional advisers independently before adoption or implementation (either as is or varied).

Senin, 01 Desember 2014

Morning Dew - 2 December 2014

Inflation Pickup

JCI started the month in a positive tone, but the index is still caught up within the recent consolidation range as lack of fresh surprises put the consolidation phase intact.

Inflation accelerated in November to 6.23% (yoy) from 4.83% (October) as the impact of subsidy reduction started to come into effect. Excluding food and energy prices, core inflation came in at 4.21% (yoy), up from 4.02% last month. On month-on-month basis, inflation went up 1.5% in November, a lot faster than 0.47% seen in October. Year-to-date, inflation has hit 5.75%. Components contributing significantly to the jump in November figure were food products and transportation as well as electricity tariffs.

Trade balance swung to surplus in October 2014 to US$20 million, reversing a US$270 million of deficit in September. Exports were at US$15.35bn while imports were at US$15.33bn.  Ex-oil and gas saw a surplus of US$1.13bn from US$760 million in September.

USDIDR continued to rally on Monday, hitting 12,264 vs. 12,196 seen on Friday.

PMI, NIRO, BCIC

HSBC Markit Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) continued to show contraction in the manufacturing activity. The index fell to 48.0 in November from 49.2 seen in October. The figure was the lowest since 2011 as weak demand and recent cut in fuel subsidy dealt a blow to the sector. Reading above 50 marks expansion while below 50 marks contraction.
NIRO: 9M14 showed losses of Rp66.89bn vs. Rp30.16bn of profits in 9M13. Sales were down to Rp189.82bn vs. Rp191.66bn  in 9M13.
BCIC: 9M14 losses were at Rp223.79bn vs. 9M13 losses of Rp645.51bn. Net interest income fell to Rp31.2bn from Rp213.19bn. 

Technically Speaking...

JCI is back on track to breach its all-time high, even after it breached the previous resistance around 5,150-.5,160, the index remains struggling to break the cap for further gains.

Should the index fails to follow through the recent gains, it will risk returning to the bottom end of the recent consolidation range around 4,900.

Need to see if the index can maintain its position above 5,150. If it can, a clean and decisive break beyond the 5,150 will bring the index to test 5,200 and subsequently 5,251, ahead of the all-time record high at 5,262. 

While MACD remains stable, RSI has reached the overbought area.

Tuesday is seen mixed but still within the familiar trading range between 5,000-5,250 as the index is expected to continue its consolidation.

Day Ahead

New month but hardly any potential surprises on the news front. The next big thing possibly the release of US nonfarm payrolls. Still, the data may not be able to derail the FOMC from entering higher interest rate environment in mid-2015. Domestic calm may put the JCI stable around 5,000-5,262, but with upside bias as the index maintains its chance to set a new record high.

Diposting oleh di 14.59
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