DISCLAIMER

This research report is prepared by PT MINNA PADI INVESTAMA Tbk for information purposes only and are not to be used or considered as an offer or the solicitation of an offer to sell or to buy or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. The report has been prepared without regard to individual financial circumstance, need or objective of person to receive it. The securities discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors. The appropriateness of any particular investment or strategy whether opined on or referred to in this report or otherwise will depend on an investor’s individual circumstance and objective and should be independently evaluated and confirmed by such investor, and, if appropriate, with his professional advisers independently before adoption or implementation (either as is or varied).

Minggu, 21 Desember 2014

Morning Dew - 22 December 2014

Stumbling Block

JCI put on a strong finish for the week above 5,140, tracking the world stocks rally and erasing earlier losses incurred at the start of the week. FOMC’s wording to be “patient” on rates has put the JCI back on track to break through the barrier at 5,262, the record high for the index.

USDIDR resumed its slide to end the week at 12,500 after earlier jump to 12,900 at the beginning of the week.

Oil prices have bounced a bit on Friday. The WTI crude oil was 5.1% higher at US$57.13/bbl  while the Brent crude oil was up 3.56% to US$61.38/bbl.  The decline of oil prices have been considered as a stumbling block for the Fed as it will put inflation under pressure, giving lack or no room for the policymakers to justify for higher interest rates.

What’s next for the Fed to decide will depend also on the oil prices. Should the oil prices stay under pressure, the central bank will indeed be “patient” on rates. On the other hand, the US jobs market has improved recently, providing the Fed a reason to start raising rates soon.

SUPR

SUPR: is planning to conduct rights issue worth Rp2.4tn early next year. The plan has been approved by the shareholders  and the proceeds are to be used to pay the equity bridge facility from BNP Paribas, HSBC, ING Bank NV and JPMorgan Chase as well as Standard Chartered Bank. These banks have provided loans worth US$790 million, of which US$140 million (6-mos term) will be repaid using the rights issue funds. The remaining US$650 million (4yrs, 6mos term) will be repaid using bonds issuance next year.

Technically Speaking...

JCI returned above 50-day EMA curve again as the strong showing on Friday also bent the MACD, putting the MACD back on track to resurface beyond the zero line. Judging from the volume, Friday’s rise was backed up by a very strong volume, a good news for the bulls.

However, should the index fails to follow through the recent gains, it will risk returning to the bottom end of the recent consolidation range around 4,900.

We have seen a test of 5,200 resistance, but successful breakout remains elusive. Beyond 5,200, the subsequent resistance will be at 5,251, ahead of the all-time record high at 5,262. 

A doji star has appeared on the daily chart as Friday’s candle was somewhat separated from the prior ones and ended in a doji formation. This should be a warning that despite the potential additional gains ahead, the index is also ripe for a setback after putting a strong rally.

The coming week will offer trading range for the JCI, between 5,000 and 5,262. 

Week Ahead

It looks as if the JCI is going to have a merry end for this year. With Fed euphoria still in the air, the index is back on track to break its record high at 5,262. It may as well happen just before the year ends. But then again, strong consecutive gains recently have also presented a risk of some setback. All in all, JCI is seen fluctuating around 5,100-5,262.

Diposting oleh di 15.18
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