DISCLAIMER

This research report is prepared by PT MINNA PADI INVESTAMA Tbk for information purposes only and are not to be used or considered as an offer or the solicitation of an offer to sell or to buy or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. The report has been prepared without regard to individual financial circumstance, need or objective of person to receive it. The securities discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors. The appropriateness of any particular investment or strategy whether opined on or referred to in this report or otherwise will depend on an investor’s individual circumstance and objective and should be independently evaluated and confirmed by such investor, and, if appropriate, with his professional advisers independently before adoption or implementation (either as is or varied).

Minggu, 07 Desember 2014

Morning Dew - 8 December 2014

Payrolls Swell

US Nonfarm payrolls were up 321k in November, beating the consensus of 230k and also higher than 214k seen in October. Unemployment rate was steady at 5.8%. The strong job report suggests that the FOMC is likely to be on track to deliver its first tightening sometime in mid-2015. In the US, the DJIA scored another record high following the job report.

Fuel and inflation took the consumer confidence index down in November from 120.6 to 120.1. The consumer survey which interviewed 4,600 households from 18 major cities all over Indonesia suggests that index figure above 100 represents optimism.

HSBC PMI Manufacturing Index showed manufacturing growth has slowed to 48.0.

Forex reserves slightly fell to US$111.1bn by the end of November vs. US$112bn at the end of October. Government’s foreign debt payments and central bank’s monetary control were the factors behind the falling reserves. 

USDIDR  ended Friday with a drop to 12,296 from 12,318, ending a series of winning streak.

BUDI, TBLA

BUDI: A total of Rp300bn has been set for capex in 2015. One is for a 72k tons of factory in Lampung (Rp180bn), one 72k tons fructose factory at West Java (Rp190bn) and a power plant at Lampung (Rp180bn). The expansions are expected to boost sales next year by 10% from this year’s target of Rp2tn.

TBLA: will use Rp1.2tn for capex next year for construction of sugar mill at Terbanggi  (Rp600bn) and Rp200bn for cooking oil factory at Lampung and Surabaya and another Rp200bn for building of biodiesel factory in Lampung. For CPO factory at Bengkulu the company will need Rp100bn while the rest are to be used for factories maintenances as well as existing plants.

Technically Speaking...

JCI stays on track to breach its all-time high as it continues to stay close enough near the record high of 5,262.

Should the index fails to follow through the recent gains, it will risk returning to the bottom end of the recent consolidation range around 4,900.

We have seen a test of 5,200 resistance, but successful breakout remains elusive. 

Beyond 5,200, the subsequent resistance will be at 5,251, ahead of the all-time record high at 5,262. 

While MACD ticked lower but remains stable, RSI has reached the overbought area recent consolidation has pushed the curve lower.

Overall however, the fluctuation is expected to remain within the familiar trading range between 5,000-5,250 on Friday.

Week Ahead

Strong US payrolls is expected to bolster the Fed’s argument for starting the rate rise sometime in 2015, possibly around mid-year. The domestic front continues to search for key catalysts while finding none so far. Hence, the performance of Europe and US are likely to be the driver for the index for now. Monday, the JCI is seen supported by how the Dow perform as the US stocks hit new record high on Friday. Upside is slippery as profit-taking is getting more likely to happen the higher the index goes.

Diposting oleh di 11.01
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